Multi-tabling and variance

[Cheshire]

Does multi-tabling cut down on variance? I want to say it does because by playing more then one table you get to play more hands which means more opportunities to come back from bad beats. The only bad side I see is that if you are tiltiing or playing poorly your money will be gone much faster. Is my logic sound on this? I think it is but I wanted to check with more experienced players.

[shermn27]

If any given poker hand is 99% luck and 1% skill (doesn't really matter if these numbers are right or not) my odds on making money on that hand are just about as good as anybody elses. Play 1,000,000 hands and a skilled players odds on making money are enormous. Its a statistical property. More hands played = less variance. Although b/c poker has a luck factor, variance will never be 0.

[Master5hake]

It wouldn't theoretically reduce vairance - big downswings within a certain amount of hands are just as likely - the only thing that would be reduced is the length of time you were in the downswing - ie: if you are going to experience a downswing over 1000 hands, those 1000 hands will take less total of your time to get through with several tables -

the flip side of that is that the downswings can seem more sudden and therefore interperted as more severe if you are multitabling - multitabling you could go thru that entire 1000 hand downswing all in one afternoon -

[UATrewqaz]

The mroe hands you play the closer you approach your true results. Multi-tabling just allows you to reach your true results faster. If you're a losing player all multi-tabling will do is lose faster, a winning player will win faster.

[Dave G.]

Your short term variance will be higher with regards to your total bankroll, because there are more "random events" occuring simultaneously that can affect its value. However, your variance on any one table will not be higher than usual (unless you're playing on so many tables that your play is actually affected by a lowering of your concentration).

Edit: Actually I reread your first question. You have it backwards. Multi-tabling will increase your short term variance.

"Variance" isn't just a term thrown out there to say that "things vary sometimes". It's a statistical term with a precise definition.

If we have 2 independent random events X and Y, then Var(X + Y) = Var(X) + Var(Y). The same is true for any number of random events. If you're 4 tabling, then you can say that 4 random events are occuring, so by definition your variance will be higher the more tables you play.

[HentaiGaijin]

Multitabling increases variance because:

1. Reduced concentration at any one table.
2. Reduced accuracy of player specific tells, that do matter even at the micro limit level. (Gametime+ stats are not always sufficient to make the best plays.)
3. The multiplicative effect that tilt now has on your play. If you get a bad beat, you may play bad at four tables instead of just one.
4. Increased mistakes you make handling four tables, like accidentally letting a hand fold to timeout or a misclick. <-- This is often cited as the major reason for increased variance, but in my opinion it is the least. The amplification of tilt is far more dangerous.

[Dave G.]

These factors certainly can contribute to variance. However, even absent all these factors, your variance will be naturally higher anyway.

Imagine that you are playing on 100 tables at once. Imagine for simplicity that on each table, you flop a flush draw. We know that a flush draw comes in about 35% of the time. However, in this case, your flush draw comes in on only 20 tables. Lets say you win $16 when it comes in and lose $5 when it doesn't.

So in this round of play, your earnings are 20*16 + (-5)*80 = -$80.

Lets say you play again and you, again, have a flush draw on each table. This time 45 of them come in. Your total earnings are 45*16 + (-5)*55 = +$390, for a net total of +$310.

So in about 3 minutes time, your bankroll has gone from even, down to -$80, and up to +$310. That's what you call variance. If you are playing on one table, this is never happening.

Even though your earnings will approach the expected value of these draws more quickly, it can be seen that your variance will be higher the more tables you play, regardless of how well you happen to be playing.

[Cosimo]

Variance per hour increases when multi-tabling, but variance per hand does not.

Except variance per hand might increase for the subtle reasons that HentaiGaijin mentions. Note that your variance might decrease because (say) you play tighter, fewer marginal hands, etc etc. The specific effect that multi-tabling has on a person's play is impossible to measure since it takes an absurdly huge amount of hands for any empirical statistics to converge.

Ignoring these second-order effects, a hand is a hand. Whether you're on one table or three, when you play 100 hands your variance will still be about 15BB.

[kapw7]

[ QUOTE ]
I think it is but I wanted to check with more experienced players.

[/ QUOTE ]

Don't multitable until you become yourself more experienced.
You will never improve your game by MTTing

[DavidC]

I read the first line of your post, and the subject line, and mad-grunched this. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

The answer is: "It Depends."

I'll expand on this, I suppose...

If you play a single table, you can play more hands profitably, and thus, you will have a higher bb/100, but more variance.

If you play more tables, you will probably (initially) see a drop in vpip, which should lead to a bigger bb/100 per vpip, but lower bb/100. Believe it or not, with a lower bb/100, you'll have less variance.

Your hourly variance, in terms of absolute bb, will be higher, as well as your weekly absolute bb variance.

Your bb/100 variance, weekly will be lower, also, just because you're playing more hands and should be shooting closer to your true rate each week.

Hope this helps.

--Dave.

Edit: Oh yeah, re: "it depends". If you eventually bring your vpip back up to where it started, then you should achieve the same sd/100 hands that you had before, but just a lower bb/100.

--Dave.