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#41
07-29-2005, 10:25 AM
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Re: QQ, hand protection, and being the calling station
I think that raising the flop here and facing everyone here with two, there is a good chance that at least one person will fold incorrectly, looking at the two bets they have to call and not the size of the pot. And I think getting even one person to fold in a pot this big is very profitable.
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#43
07-30-2005, 09:04 AM
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Re: QQ, hand protection, and being the calling station
[ QUOTE ]
Raising this flop is a big mistake that will often cost you a huge pot. This is textbook SSH wait until the turn to raise your hand. You would have been able to present the field with 7.5:1 odds for the gutshots and other weak draws. This pot is too big and our hand is too vulnerable to mess around. [/ QUOTE ] I dont think this is a spot to wait for the turn to raise. If the flop was something like 6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] I'd agree to wait for the turn, since now there are many more cards that beat you (any [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7, 3, 5, K or A can beat you) and you cannot make these draws fold if you raise the flop, but maybe if you raise the turn, so waiting would be correct here. Another reason for waiting for the turn to raise on a flop of 6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] is that your equity will change drastically on the turn based on what card comes, but thats not the case on a flop of 6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] , only an A, a K or a 7 decreases your equity significantly, most other cards dont change it much and you should get in the money right now. So a flop raise for sure is for value. It was mentioned several times that a flop raise fails to protect your hand - this is basically incorrect. It is correct that when you raise the flop a gutshot can call profitably, but a gutshot is not the only hand you have to fear on this board. Any pocketpair is correct to call the flop getting 23 to 1 pot odds, but it is not correct to call with a pp getting 12.5 to 1 (when you raise the flop). Moreover a flop raise will make it incorrect for lone overcards to call (many ppl play nearly any A and many K at this limit) and getting 23 to 1 they are correct to call this flop, however - if you raise they'll have to decide between folding and making an incorrect call since they can not count 3 full outs for their overs. Even a lone bd flush-draw wont make much of a mistake if he calls for on bet to see if he can pick up his fd. Now you have to evaluate which play protects your hand most - whether to wait for the turn to raise and make it unprofitable for gutshots, pp, and overs, which missed, to call or raise the flop to prevent those weak draws from drawing out on you (but you wont make gutshots fold). There are 32 possible hands that can hold a gutshot on this board and many of them (esp. the offsuit ones) will not call pf when they have to call 2 bets cold or three from bb (in fact there are some more possibilities but these are 2 or 3 - gap connectors and not many of them will be played even by loose players). On the other hand there are 48 different possibilities for someone holding a pp (I dont count AA, KK, QQ, 66 or 88 here since they have you beaten anyway) and there's an even larger number of possible holdings that contain an A or a K (more than 100 possible combinations that will be played by a typical micro limit player). Even if all your opponents miss the turn (they dont make a boat or complete their straight) many who would have folded the flop will not fold the turn - someone holding a lone A might pair his kicker on the turn and is now drawing to a boat and Aces-up, someone with a pp might have picked up a gutshot and is now drawing to a boat and a straight - they'll find many reasons to stay in this huge pot and often they are correct to do so. Now imagine three of your opponents would play with their cards revealed. One of them holds T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], the second has 7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and the third has 7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. They hold three gutshots (notice: anyone completes his gutshot with a different card - this is the worst case for you since many more cards beat you now). Now you know when you are beat and you know when your raise will knock out all the gutshots since they will be incorrect to call if you call the flop and raise the turn. Now it must be correct to call the flop and wait for the turn to raise. But it is not. There are several resaons: 1. Someone could raise behind you on the flop after many players have called - in this case your play is ruined - everyone will be correct to call for one more bet and the pot will be too big at the turn so you wont be able to knock out the 3 gutshots (and other weak draws). 2. If someone from early position bets out on the turn - your play is ruined too, the pot is too big to make it incorrect for the gutshots to call and many players have already called for one bet and will not fold to another if you raise. 3. If everything works according to your plan (everyone calls the flop, MP2 comes out betting again on the turn) there is one more thing to consider - the range of hands MP2 could have. What hands does he raise with pf after 3 players have called, bets the flop into 6 opponents after being reraised pf and comes out betting again on the turn after getting 5 callers? I doubt a typical player will do this with less than a pair of Jacks or overs which picked up the nut flushdraw on the turn. When MP2 comes out betting on the flop he could have anything (high pp, just overs) but when he bets the turn again unimproved, he must have JJ, QQ, KK, AA (many players will not cap pf with AA, KK because they dont want to build a huge pot which makes it correct for anyone to draw out on their overpair). Unless he his extremely aggressive you have to realize that you could be behind (drawing to 2 outs) or that you only chase half the pot. Ocassionally there are cases where you need to be cute to protect your hand - c/c the flop and raise the turn because there are many cards that can beat you and your equity will change dramatically on the turn - but this is not one of them, only a few cards beat you, your equity is fairly steady and your play (waiting for the turn to raise) could fail in many ways. Btw.: First post, hi everyone =)
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