Party $10/$20 NL - What is the largest turn bet Hero can call here?

[ZeeJustin]

10/20 NL on Party - 9 handed
I am NOT the hero in this hand. Hero is 2 off the button in the hand.

Preflop: UTG, UTG+1, UTG+2 and UTG+3 all limp. Hero is next to act w/ J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. Hero makes it 140 total. 4 players fold. UTG calls. 2 more players fold. UTG+3 calls.

Hero is new to the table and has no read on UTG+3. Hero has only seen UTG a few times before, but thinks he is a solid decent player.

Flop: 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] There is $490 in the pot.
UTG checks. UTG + 3 bets $400. Hero minraises to $800. UTG cold calls the raise. UTG + 3 calls.

Turn: 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
There is $2890 in the pot.

UTG has $1376 behind.
UTG + 3 has $1020 behind.
Hero has $1135 behind.

UTG now bets out for a small amount. UTG + 3 calls. What is the largest bet from UTG that Hero should call here?

[baronzeus]

There's probably like a 5% chance you're ahead here and you have a 5% chance to improve to the 2nd nuts. So like $300 ish?


Edit: Forgot implied odds. Since you will be able to extract a ton on the river if you hit your 2 outer I'd say call a $400 bet

[bigslick789]

[ QUOTE ]
There's probably like a 5% chance you're ahead here and you have a 5% chance to improve to the 2nd nuts. So like $300 ish?


Edit: Forgot implied odds. Since you will be able to extract a ton on the river if you hit your 2 outer I'd say call a $400 bet

[/ QUOTE ]

We can only assume that hero has 2 outs drawing to the best hand. Some of the implied odds are taken away because of the fact that your opponent can make a small bet on the river again giving you 10-1 or more odds to call the river bet. Also, from my experience, I can say that the range of hands utg is on includes 44, 77, AA, or KK or a naked 7 in this situation, from these range of hands, UTG might fold to a river bet taking away some of your implied odds in case he has AA or KK. Also if utg+1 has 77, he gets all of your money on the river if a J hits.

I wouldn't call more than 250$ on the turn.

[SpaceAce]

What kind of "small amount" was bet on the turn? Was it the kind of small amount that could be some sort of weirdo blocking bet or was it the kind of small amount that says, "I have quads and I am desperately afraid no money will go in on the turn if I check"?

I think what the hero can call here is influenced by whether or not he is 100% sure he will fold the river unimproved. I think the hero can call a little bit more on the turn if he knows for sure he will fold the river unimproved. If, however, Hero is not quite sure what he's doing if he faces another bet on the river, I think it's in his best interest to call only the smallest of bets on the turn.

This hand was played so weirdly up to this point that I'm not even sure what Hero should be behind to, here. A naked seven? Fours full? Another overpair?

SpaceAce

[turnipmonster]

I think it's around 190, assuming UTG pays off and UTG+3 doesn't.

[radioheadfan]

What were you trying to accomplish with the flop min-raise?
I don't like it one bit.

[baronzeus]

he isnt the hero in the hand

[creedofhubris]

I guess you're asking, given the size of the pot, should hero figure in his two-outer when weighing options?

I think hero should be thinking in terms of folding or raising, rather than the "limit thinking" of "pot is big, I can call to hit my two outs".

Certainly in a smaller pot, this is raise or fold, not call. Suddenly going limp in a big pot is not a good habit to get into.

[baronzeus]

How is a 150BB pot small?

[creedofhubris]

[ QUOTE ]
How is a 150BB pot small?

[/ QUOTE ]

It's not, which is why ZeeJ is talking about calling bets rather than raising or folding.

This is not usually a skill you need to worry about with a way ahead/way behind hand.