Math problem with QQ?

[jason_t]

[ QUOTE ]
If you're going to lead you need to 3bet. If the mouse still calls then you know you're beat and can checkfold unimproved.

[/ QUOTE ]

Once the mouse calls on the flop, it's fairly like that he has me beat. It's unlikely that he's limping UTG+1 with 78s so my concerns are 66/99 and Ax hands. I don't want to put 3-bets in on the flop when I'm likely behind. The question is how likely is it that he just has a weak one-pair hand that I can fold with a turn check/raise?