Flopped 2pr to broadway flop - what should I do

[AliasMrJones]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Pushing gains nothing and loses everything in this spot.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're very wrong. If neither other player has a straight or flush draw it denies them the proper odds to continue. I think we're frequently ahead here and I don't want to give my opponents a free chance to draw out.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, limper did have two suited cards, as I correctly presumed. You can't ignore reads in this spot, and that's exactly what you've done. He's a donk, he is likely to call on a flush draw, and if you bet, he raises, and you now can't see the river. Are they really going to be on a flush draw now 3 spades are on the board? Seriously? They've either hit it or have something totally different.

[/ QUOTE ]

Your logic is flawed. The fact that he plays any 2 cards DOES NOT make it more likely that he has 2 suited card. In fact, if anything it makes it less likely. If this guy is a donk, he could be calling with any piece of this flop and not just a flush draw. How about Ax? How about some piece of the flop with a gutshot? The fact is we weren't given much of a read on this guy other than: a) he plays every hand preflop and b) he took down 2 pots with big bets and no showdowns. We really don't know how he has played post flop other than those 2 bets. Has he called a lot on the flop? If so, than I think that argues even more for a push. Has he typically given up on the flop other than the 2 times he won the pot? If so, then that makes it more likely that he has a flush draw. Given that he's a donk with not much read postflop I think we're ahead here often, we can draw to 4 outs when we're not and we hate giving a free card to opponents on the draw. All that points to a push.

[tigerite]

I give up. What draws are either of them going to be on at this stage? Seriously?

Go ahead and bet or push this turn, I think it's totally unnecessary and to say you have 4 outs, yeah wonderful, I like to go out of a tournament 92% of the time when I'm behind.

[Damian UK]

thats true, he might slow play his flush so I gain a free card by checking (but with the chance to have another spade hit or another face card to make a straight) - I can't remember what the river was now (not a spade tho) - so assuming it wasn't a spade the SB checks again, and I check, and the limper pushes, the SB folds, what now?

as far as I can see I am still well and truely in the cesspit, I have top two pair, with a str and flush draw on the board, with a guy I have seen play 4 other hands without seeing any of his winning hands.

I would still place him on Ax with maybe the x being a spade, hence his calls?

I think he would defo push the river, guessing us other two have 2prs, trips, or even str's given the raises/reraises etc.

Just really confused on what I should have done

Cheers

Damian

[tigerite]

A straight draw? Of what, exactly JT? I can't believe anyone with something like KT, KJ, KQ would be still around at this stage waiting for a 4-outer. I really don't think it's likely for a straight draw to be out there at all. And if they are, the spade is going to have killed their action now, they won't bet big on the river even if it does hit, they will be too worried about the flush.

Also, and I repeat this idea from a previous point of mine in the thread, even if they do have Ax with x being a spade, or some part of the board plus a spade, they will call your push or bet anyway, so it leaves you no better off if the river does come a spade, you're still screwed.

[AliasMrJones]

[ QUOTE ]
I can't believe anyone with something like KT, KJ, KQ would be still around at this stage waiting for a 4-outer.

[/ QUOTE ]

And I can't believe he'd limp and then call a raise PF with 36s. In fact, he plays any 2 preflop as the original poster said. So why is it so hard to believe he'd continue postflop with any piece of the flop? My experience playing with "any 2" sorts of players is this is exactly what they will do with some piece of the flop (second pair, etc.) -- call.

[ QUOTE ]
Also, and I repeat this idea from a previous point of mine in the thread, even if they do have Ax with x being a spade, or some part of the board plus a spade, they will call your push or bet anyway, so it leaves you no better off if the river does come a spade, you're still screwed.

[/ QUOTE ]

Again, you are totally off-base. If opponent has Ax and a spade he will miss his spade draw 4 out of 5 times. He isn't getting 4-1 on his call. Thus, he loses if he calls. This is the Fundamental Theorum of Poker. The point isn't to make him go away with a draw. The point is to make him pay more than is profitable with his draw. When he calls with a flush draw, we're happy whether it comes through for him or not. How can you say you're no better off? Letting him take the river card and potentially hit his flush is what we don't want. We WANT him to call us with this hand without the proper pot odds.

BTW, I think this is close so check/fold isn't out of the question. I do think anything but a check/fold or a push is wrong. A read on the postflop play of the limper would be immensely helpful here.

[Damian UK]

My preflop play was AWFUL - i should either fold, or reraise the SB 3or4X his raise to make it about 400/500 or so in total. My thinking is this for the reraise:

If the SB really likes his hand he will reraise all in - I now have a fairly good idea he has a PP AA - 99 or A high kicker - which means I don't need to be gambling with my AQo.

BY reraising to 400/500 the limpers will probably fold unless they really like their hands, or are slowplaying a monster (in which case expect an all in) - because as I call the 90 raise the other limpers behave like sheep and believe they are getting better and better value for their hand so they all call too, minimising my chance of winning.

So why reraise? - well because at $10, people will raise with any Ax (esp suited) most Kx suited, any 2 face cards, and any pp (even down to 55/44) and poor cards like Q8 suited, 10 9 suited etc. So the odds are that the SB has one of those hands rather than AA or AK, in which case I am ahead, and he will properly throw his marginal hand.

So my reraise sorts my hand out straight away, rather than giving all the limpers a 'cheapish' flop to beat me with.

Now I know that AQo is not a hand u want to raise with, but at $10 it is - people raise all the time with marginals (examples above) and will often be all in KJ suited, A8 suited etc - for those who play higher levels, trust me they do - just sign up for a $10 and reraise all in and see what u get called with!

Anyway I will take on board the AQ fold as the best play at level 1 in a SNG- I am determined to get better at this game and as I move up I will pick my spots better - thanks for all the replies

Damian

[dinero2433]

For starters, fold AQo preflop to the big raise.

[fnord_too]

Go ahead and push since there is no way you are not committed to this pot (what, close to 2K in there and you have less than 400 behind?) and you really do not want to give a free card here.

Edit - one day I will learn to read and realize you have 800 left on the turn, not 400. Still, I think pushing is right since you need a very strong read to get away from top two here with the pot as big as it is.