TPTK, controlling the pot size question

[swolfe]

i'm revising my answer [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

i didn't read carefully enough and missed the diamond draw. i had read it as diamonds showing up with the turn 9...don't ask me how because on rereading, it's pretty clear.

i need to think about this some more. my intuition tells me that check here is better because the pot is already big and any bet i make ought to be a push. i don't want to leave myself $30 on a diamond river with a $120 pot. i don't like backing TPTK with my stack without a good read.

if he's on a draw, he has probably ~20% equity. if not he probably either has 4% or 96%, which we'll estimate as 0 and 100. his total equity has to be less than 33% to make betting correct because 2:1 is the worst odds we can lay him.

Eq = %drawing*.2 + %made hand winning

How often is he drawing? How often is he beating us? These are read dependant, but if we say 50 and 25 then his equity is about 35%.

I think it's close either way and in the end probably doesn't matter. Checking is probably lower variance because you can value bet if the river blanks and fold if it doesn't.

[swolfe]

another thing is that i would often make this same flop raise/turn check with a diamond draw or JT. it's more harmonious with that play for me to check behind other hands here.

also, we'll have a much better idea of our equity once we see the river.

would KQ call a turn push?

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another thing is that i would often make this same flop raise/turn check with a diamond draw or JT. it's more harmonious with that play for me to check behind other hands here.




That's the thing, I felt like he didn't want to call the flop bet of 20. When he first bet 3, I thought maybe a draw, but he hesitated and then called the 20. I was pretty sure at that point that he had a good Q, most likely K-Q. Anyway, I figured he was good enough to fold a draw OOP to a bet of 20. So then I figured he either had me crushed and was looking to milk me by getting me to commit on the turn, or I had him crushed. Thus, I checked the turn. Let me emphasize this again. After the flop call, I was real sure he didn't have the diamond draw. That's why I didn't mention it after the flop in my original post, which I didn't realize and I probably should have. And, I don't think he would have called a push on the turn, but who knows.

[punter11235]

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would KQ call a turn push?

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Probably not but KQ will almost always call river push after turn check.

[passion]

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there's no piece of advice regularly given out by inexperienced SSNL players on this board that annoys me more than "push and hope".

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i'm revising my answer [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

i didn't read carefully enough and missed the diamond draw. i had read it as diamonds showing up with the turn 9...don't ask me how because on rereading, it's pretty clear.

i need to think about this some more. my intuition tells me that check here is better because the pot is already big and any bet i make ought to be a push. i don't want to leave myself $30 on a diamond river with a $120 pot. i don't like backing TPTK with my stack without a good read.

if he's on a draw, he has probably ~20% equity. if not he probably either has 4% or 96%, which we'll estimate as 0 and 100. his total equity has to be less than 33% to make betting correct because 2:1 is the worst odds we can lay him.

Eq = %drawing*.2 + %made hand winning

How often is he drawing? How often is he beating us? These are read dependant, but if we say 50 and 25 then his equity is about 35%.

I think it's close either way and in the end probably doesn't matter. Checking is probably lower variance because you can value bet if the river blanks and fold if it doesn't.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm taking this as an apology [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Passion