KK on Ace high board vs. suspected clown.

[Jeff W]

I suspect that Button is a clown, but my evidence is thin:

1. He cold called 4 bets cold.
2. Two hands earlier he played a hand as follows:

I raise my CO blind. He calls in bb.

Flop comes Q98 2 spades. Check, bet, call.
Turn is a 2. Bet, raise, call.
River is a K. Bet, fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Party 20/40 (10 handed)

Preflop: Jeff is MP2 with Kd, Ks.
UTG raises, 2 folds, MP1 3-bets, Jeff caps, 2 folds, Button calls, 2 folds, UTG folds, MP1 calls.

Flop: (15.50 SB) 5c, As, 6d (3 players)
MP1 checks, Jeff bets, Button raises, MP1 folds, Jeff calls.

Turn: (9.75 BB) 6s (2 players)
Jeff checks, Button bets, Jeff calls.

River: (11.75 BB) 2d (2 players)
Jeff checks, Button bets, Jeff calls.

Pre flop and flop are obvious. On the turn, I have to win ~1/6 times.

[pokerhooker]

[ QUOTE ]
Pre flop and flop are obvious. On the turn, I have to win ~1/6 times.

[/ QUOTE ]

More than 1/6 since you have to expect to call a river bet.

Fold on the turn. There's no sane hand that you beat that he'd cold call 4 with and then raise the flop. I suppose there's the remote chance that he has a spade draw, but you have the Ks, too, which makes it even more unlikely.

[Justin A]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Pre flop and flop are obvious. On the turn, I have to win ~1/6 times.

[/ QUOTE ]

More than 1/6 since you have to expect to call a river bet.

Fold on the turn. There's no sane hand that you beat that he'd cold call 4 with and then raise the flop. I suppose there's the remote chance that he has a spade draw, but you have the Ks, too, which makes it even more unlikely.

[/ QUOTE ]

The pot is laying him almost 11:1. He took into account the river when he said he needs to be good 1 in 6.

[Jeff W]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Pre flop and flop are obvious. On the turn, I have to win ~1/6 times.

[/ QUOTE ]

More than 1/6 since you have to expect to call a river bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

No, I took effective odds into account. It's actually 2/13.75 which is closer to 1/7.