TD27: Big multiway pot against Randomstumbl and two complete nuts

[timprov]

I cruised by UB this afternoon and saw Random sitting at 2/4 with ~90BB. Naturally I wanted a piece of his opponents. I haven't been at the table very long, but these guys aren't hard to read.

Thing1 has been raising any two cards 8 or less and chasing to the river. Thing2 has been three-betting him with any high-card hand, one, or two card draw regardless of how bad. In the previous hand he 3-bet, stood pat, and bet through with A8643, Thing1 drew 2 and called him on the end with QT752.

($2/$4 Triple Draw 2-7)

Thing1 is at seat 2 with $87.25.
Thing2 is at seat 3 with $82.
timprov is at seat 4 with $197.
randomstumbl is at seat 5 with $352.50.
The button is at seat 4.

randomstumbl posts the small blind of $1.
Thing1 posts the big blind of $2.

timprov: Td 2d 4h 7h 3s

First Round:

Thing2 calls. timprov raises to $4. randomstumbl
re-raises to $6. Thing1 calls. Thing2 calls.
timprov re-raises to $8. randomstumbl calls.
Thing1 calls. Thing2 calls.

randomstumbl takes 1 card. Thing1 takes 2 cards.
Thing2 takes 3 cards. timprov takes 1 card.

Second Round:

timprov: 2d 4h 7h 3s 9h

randomstumbl bets $2. Thing1 calls. Thing2
calls. timprov raises to $4. randomstumbl re-raises
to $6. Thing1 calls. Thing2 calls. timprov ?

[MarkGritter]

Random has probably (although not necessarily) made his hand. What could he have?

Let's give him the benefit of the doubt and assume he was drawing to a 7. He is approximately 1/3 to have caught an 8 instead and 2/3 to have made a 7 (assuming he didn't brick and is just pumping the pot.)

1/6th: 75432: 3 outs to tie
1/6th: 76432: 3 outs to tie, 4 to a win
1/6th: 76532: 6 outs to a win
1/6th: 76542: 6 outs to a win
1/6th: 86xxx, 6-7 outs to a win
1/6th: 87xxx, 10-12 outs to a win (there is a possible tie, I'll use 10 outs to be conservative.)

[Note: there are more 1-card draws with 7 high than with 6 high so the last two cases should probably not be equally weighted, but what the heck.]

The stub is 41 cards. (Who knows what the Things have, I'm not going to try to guess. They were only holding 5 'good' cards between them.)

Your equity is right on the edge, about 24% using the assumptions above, no higher than 26%. If the location of one of those other 5s or 6s is known your equity would be only 20%.

I'm very tempted to put in the final raise here. Maybe Random will get nervous and break a rough 8 (doubtful). Maybe Random is pumping the pot here 20% of the time.

The argument against raising is that even the Things have some equity so your share is probably a bit less than it would be HU.

The truth of the matter probably is that does not make much difference either way.

[kmvenne]

You have to keep control right here IMO. You have the button in a button friendly game, two players possibly drawing dead and at best drawing slim, and one solid player fighting you for what, for all intents and purposes, is a $70 splash pot. You won't get a rough 8 broke, but that's ok. You could get a smoother 9 broke, and thats great. Either way I'm gonna believe the action random takes after you cap and act accordingly.

Plus you gain decent equity in the immediate metagame if you are forced to draw 1 a second time after capping. The fish will never respect you for as long as they stick around this session. Consider it a $2 purchase of future dead money if it fails.

The thing I hate about this hand is if I hit as random, I sure as hell lead. You can't force the fish to face two cold if you hit better then a 97. You want them to if you hit worse. I expect you will be drawing after this, but it's not the worst thing that could happen.

And what ever happened to honor amoungst thieves? I leave you guys alone when you got fishy 3-6 players, and I don't think I'd be on the awesome TD rush I am right now if you guys came and invaded my A-5 games [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img].

[randomstumbl]

I'll start by saying that I don't think I played this particularly well. I assumed timprov was still drawing at a 7 and I was drawing at an 85. I knew I was behind him, but I also knew the other two players had less than a 10% equity. So, I was just pumping the pot as a presumed money favorite.

I'm screwed if timprov's pat, but it's a small money street. And I'm almost positive Thing 2 will fold on the next round (he'd been doing it a lot in similar situations).

I think the rest of the hand was fairly automatic and the difference between getting 2,3 or 4 small bets isn't enormous.

It should be pointed out that these were not anywhere near normal opponents. Thing1 kept raising me when he was a card behind. So, I was definitly willing to make a few sub-optimal plays to seem like a bigger gambler than I was.

[timprov]

I called. Random drew one, Thing1 drew 1, Thing2 drew 3, I drew and picked up a 5. The rest of the hand was pretty straightforward. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

My thought process at the time was that I was almost certainly going to draw. If Random was still drawing (which I thought was fairly likely), I thought I had a better chance of him leading into the field again if I didn't cap, so I could get two big bets out of everyone if I caught. Unfortunately it didn't work out that way.

[randomstumbl]

On the next round, I bricked. I knew you wouldn't raise unless you were pat and I knew you'd bet regardless. So, checking was a fairly easy decision.