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#1
07-28-2005, 03:27 AM
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Re: Gotta trust your reads and instincts
Ok Fan, let try some math on this one.
If you are right and he has a gutshot/flush draw, he has 18 outs on the river, which he hits 41% of the time. If he has a made hand, lets generously give you 3 outs, so you win 6% of the time. If you are 80% sure he is making a move then .8 x .41= .32 The other 20% is .2 x .06 is .1. That leaves you with a 33% win when you are 80% sure. I dont feel like doing any more calculations, but you should be able to see where this is going.... 
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#2
07-28-2005, 12:11 PM
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Re: Gotta trust your reads and instincts
[ QUOTE ]
Ok Fan, let try some math on this one. If you are right and he has a gutshot/flush draw, he has 18 outs on the river, which he hits 41% of the time. If he has a made hand, lets generously give you 3 outs, so you win 6% of the time. If you are 80% sure he is making a move then .8 x .41= .32 The other 20% is .2 x .06 is .1. That leaves you with a 33% win when you are 80% sure. I dont feel like doing any more calculations, but you should be able to see where this is going.... [/ QUOTE ] All this math is pretty useless since you're not incorporating pot-odds.
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#3
07-28-2005, 11:37 AM
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Re: Gotta trust your reads and instincts
[ QUOTE ]
I have been playing for about an hour at this 10-handed 2/4 table. Villain has been mostly dead money and has folded after calling flop/turn bets, and he has raised all in once or twice before this hand, not getting called. I have a somewhat aggressive image, but not out of hand. Action is folded to Hero ($400) who is dealt A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] in mp1 and raises to $20. Villain (covers me) in mp2 calls, button (350) calls and bb calls (250). Flop ($79) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] BB checks, Hero bets $65, villain immediately calls, others both fold. Turn ($209) 5 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Hero bets $180, villain raises me all in. Hero calls. River ($839) 8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Results and analysis to come shortly. [/ QUOTE ] Results: I got lucky to be right Analysis: I don't like money, so I figured I'd gamble Seriously, if your only read on this guy is that he's folded a couple times, bet a couple times, and might be dead, then that is so vague I don't understand how you differentiate him from any other weak player. Given that, I don't see how you can decide to go to the felt here w/AK and not every other time you have AK unimproved.
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