A basic conceptual problem: AK heads up, rag flop.

[jrz1972]

This is an excellent situation in which to mix up your game a bit. As others have noted, there are a bunch of possible lines one could adopt, all of which are at least reasonable against an opponent who has some dim awareness of what is going on.

Depending on my mood, I might raise this flop or I might just call. Either is a perfectly fine option. Then I could see myself folding/calling/betting/checking the turn depending on my mood and what happened on the flop. Depending on how the play goes and what cards come off on the other streets, I might very well call the river if I get there.

HU is when you really don't want to be too easily predictable, so it's important to mix up your HU play. Fortunately, it's easy to do.

[Ortho]

Thanks very much for all the replies. I think it being an ego thing is on the mark. The problem is that I've been a tight-weak player and so much of my ego is involved in not getting run over. I've typically been just folding this, but last week I folded when a tight-passive player bet into me in this spot and he said "that was easy. what a weak player." I originally assumed that he was upset he hadn't gotten any action on a big hand, but it made me wonder...

[Rev. Good Will]

Why is everyone giving hero only 3 outs? overcars outs are typically discounted if villian has Ax (suited or not) and might possibly be reverse dominating hero.

I give you 6.5 outs(full 6 on overs, .5 for BDIS) and if villian is tight, I don't think the stuff he's defending with would connect with this crap ass board.

Semi-bluff raise time.

EDIT - please note I'm not raising for information or a free card here, also edited to fix typos in body

[Mroberts3]

to me this play seems totally dependant on your read of the player, what you think his read of you is, and your playing style. It is obvious there is no clear answer, otherwise this thread would be only one or two responses. With this in mind, I think you should conciously mix it up. It works out as a good randomizer to your play and really doesnt win or lose you money since IMO most choices presented here have similar EV. IF I could chose one had that my oppenents didnt know how I played, it would be high cards. This is because they come along so much more often than other premium hands. If your opponents didn't know how you played AA, it wouldnt matter because they would only see it once in a while, but with high cards you can induce mistakes from your opponents. If this particular hand came up 5 times in the course of one session, and you took a totally different approch each time, it would be very difficult for your opponent to make the correct decision every time. In short, do whatever you like, because it is not going to affect your EV much, and will make you harder to read. (Don't take my advice to mean that you should ignore information presented to you. Always consider the situation carefully, but if you are in serious doubt then just try mixing it up.)

[string4]

*in the dark, critique welcome*

I usually let the size of the pot make a lot of calls here. Since your looking at a rather small pot (5.5 sb) so far against somebody you don't have a real clear read on, i fold. If it was a larger pot, i'm raising.

[Absolution]

However, I would add that eventually you want to get away from simply randomly mixing it up. Eventually you might like to try some game theory or atleast present an image to your thinking opponents (else they will use game theory against your randomness). Even while I'm learning in micros I like to try and think about these things so that I can use them when I'm faced with better opponents as I move up. But, I agree that mixing it up is obviously better than becoming a fit-or-fold or an autobetter. Even mildly aware opponents will catch on to that.

For micro though most players aren't even that aware. Until I've seen otherwise I assume most micro players are betting when they have something, especially if they start donk betting me (the new favorite term) - and that something could be 72s hitting trips on the river after calling my preflop raise cold :P

[cfjr2]

I disagree

I don't think 6 full outs plus the .5 for BDIS is reasonable. We have to assume that 1/2 the time this player will hold an A or a K therefore we discount 3 outs to 1.5 and the BDIS to .25 for the split.

That gives 1.5 + 3 + .25 = 4.75 call it 5.

From pure EV the pot is to small to call if we are drawing. So are we ahead 50% of the time against this player? OP doesn't make it seem so. We are behind to all reasonable BB pairs (66+) and drawing almost dead if he made trips.

So we have 11% chance to draw a winning out and 20%? we are ahead. If we are ahead villan could improve as often as we can so we have maybe 20-25% chance at pot(?).

there are 5.5 bets in the pot. If we have a 20% (4-1) chance to win we should bet (pot odds 5-1) but if we are ahead less often than 18% of the time (5.5-1) we should fold (unless there is 2.5 BB of value in seeing this river - I don't think so).
If we do not hit on Turn it will be 4.25 BB to use and we would have to fold as I do not think we will have the odds to call again.

also, I don't think a raise is for value here - if we only have 20% chance of being ahead / winning.

Bluff raise? Is a weak tight player betting a bluff here? Unless read is wrong this is unlikely.

not sure a 5 sb pot is worth fighting for w/o a decent draw and likely behind.

My conclusion - call / fold, fold turn UI.

[GrunchCan]

I'll raise. Hero could have the best hand here.

[aces_dad]

"We have to assume that 1/2 the time this player will hold an A or a K"

What are we basing this assumption on? Seems much too pessimistic to me. Random holdings will have A or K approx 2/13 times, you really think calling a bet from BB pushes that to 1/2?

[Rev. Good Will]

[ QUOTE ]

I disagree

I don't think 6 full outs plus the .5 for BDIS is reasonable. We have to assume that 1/2 the time this player will hold an A or a K therefore we discount 3 outs to 1.5 and the BDIS to .25 for the split.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why do we have to assume that? so this player will bet whiffed overs?