PLO8 --- 3 pair against probable AA + low draw

[emptyshell]

From his flop bet, I figured he probably had AA, but maybe not a 3. On the other hand, there's a good chance he has a low draw that's a hell of a lot better than mine. I was hoping a raise would win it right there, but when he reraised, I went with it. What you think?

$400 PL Omaha Hi/Lo
Hero ( $475.80 ), v1 ( $512.51 ), folder3 ( $544.08 ),
folder1 ( $45.42 ), folder2 ( $249.05 )

Dealt to Hero [ J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ]

folder2 posts small blind [$2].
v1 posts big blind [$4].
Hero calls [$4], folder3 calls [$4], folder1 folds,
folder2 calls [$2], v1 raises [$16], Hero calls [$16],
folder3 folds, folder2 folds

FLOP: (45.60) [ J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ]
v1 bets [$35], Hero raises [$151],
v1 raises [$232], Hero is all-In [$304.80],
v1 calls [$188.80]

Results in white below:
<font color="#FFFFFF">


TURN: (956.60) [ 9d ]


RIVER: (956.60) [ Kd ]


v1 shows [ Ad, 3h, Ah, 4s ] a pair of aces.
Hero shows [ Jh, 2h, As, 5h ] two pairs, jacks and fives.

Hero wins $957.60 from the main pot with two pairs, jacks and fives.
There was no qualifying low hand.

</font>

[Jorge10]

Wait for the turn, if its a blank shove the chips in there, itll help with variance. I dont like shoving it in there on the flop because the stacks are pretty deep. Its not like calling will pot commit you, and besides if he has A/A/3 and the turn is a low its a freeroll situation, not only that, but if you call on the flop you will figure out a lot. If he doesnt have A/A/3 he might all of a sudden slow down if a low hits. The only way he wouldnt slow down with or without A/A/3 is with a high blank card which of course you like more than him.

[Wintermute]

Pretty read-dependent... if he has AA3, or AA34 then you're obviously not in great shape. If it's a close situation, just rely on your reads--seems like you've been posting a lot of hands where you may be a 55% favorite or a 45% dog, and it entirely depends on your reads and the type of image you want to project.

Yeah, looking at the results, it was a lucky turn/river obviously... actually now that I think about it having that third pair is a big deal against AA since the board can't pair to improve AA's to two pair better than yours (except runner-runner pair). Guess you're running well!

(Edit: hm, looks like you even lead AA3. I think this is a good move in the long run given a strong AA read. Nice to make good on a 2/3 when it happens though)

[emptyshell]

[ QUOTE ]
now that I think about it having that third pair is a big deal against AA since the board can't pair to improve AA's to two pair better than yours (except runner-runner pair).

[/ QUOTE ]

This is why I tried the move. Wouldn't have been as aggressive with just 2 pair. I still thought I was a 45% dog, though; I'll have to rerun the numbers.

[Wintermute]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
now that I think about it having that third pair is a big deal against AA since the board can't pair to improve AA's to two pair better than yours (except runner-runner pair).

[/ QUOTE ]

This is why I tried the move. Wouldn't have been as aggressive with just 2 pair. I still thought I was a 45% dog, though; I'll have to rerun the numbers.

[/ QUOTE ]




You're a ~60/40 dog to AA34 but if it's AA38 or AA39 or something you're a slight favorite:


Omaha Hi/Low 8-or-better: 820 enumerated boards containing 2s Jc 5d
cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
4s Ad Ah 3h 352 352 459 9 580 0 9 0.588
As Jh 5h 2h 207 459 352 9 0 120 9 0.412


Omaha Hi/Low 8-or-better: 820 enumerated boards containing 2s Jc 5d
cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
8s Ad Ah 3h 196 196 612 12 544 0 45 0.483
As Jh 5h 2h 207 612 196 12 0 84 45 0.517


Omaha Hi/Low 8-or-better: 820 enumerated boards containing 2s Jc 5d
cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
9s Ad Ah 3h 196 196 612 12 472 0 48 0.455
As Jh 5h 2h 252 612 196 12 0 96 48 0.545h

[emptyshell]

Yeah, actually, I think is the better line. If the low hasn't it by the turn, it will be a much better EV move to get my chips in.