88 on the Button

[PokerBob]

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imo he will call with any pair including, 2,3,5 66 or 77. you beat all those hands.

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you're correct, but look at the action....he basically called 3 out of the SB....IMO this likely eliminates him holding a 2,3 and likely 5 from consideration here

[Victor]

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Read my earlier post. With what hand do you think villain is calling a 3-bet pre-flop and seeing the turn and river? Heart draw folds river, so hero bet mostly likely earns nothing. I don’t think some x2, x3, or x5 hand is all that likely to call a 3-bet from SB (with no read, you shouldn’t assume that the player is some wacko LAG, though I’ll agree there are plenty that play short-handed tables). Pocket pairs are believable---including sets (22, 33, 55). 44, 66, 77 would likely call, I agree. So would 99. His decision to not check-raise the flop with a T is interesting, though the 3-bet helps explain that as he could have put hero on AA, KK, QQ, or JJ. Given these considerations, checking seems best.

How's that analysis?

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much better analysis. however, there is a ton of players who will call ax here. i mean, like a ton.

here is their thought process. hmmm, 3bets to me, the pot will be big. wow, i have an ace. click.

[Victor]

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I think I'd check the river, but I play bad. Actually, I may bet. I think this OK.

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gross. you realize you are getting called by ANY pair here.

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uh, i play bad.

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you likely dont play as bad as you think. you likely would play better if you thought better.

[PokerBob]

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I think I'd check the river, but I play bad. Actually, I may bet. I think this OK.

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gross. you realize you are getting called by ANY pair here.

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uh, i play bad.

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you likely dont play as bad as you think. you likely would play better if you thought better.

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uh, i think bad. I'm a teacher you know. Those who can, do. Those who can't, teach. I'm still not sure that a river check here sucks rocks. IMO villains only reasonable range here is a small pp, a busted draw or a hand like JT that is stuck.

[sammy_g]

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(with no read, you shouldn’t assume that the player is some wacko LAG, though I’ll agree there are plenty that play short-handed tables).

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With no read at the Party 5/10 tables, I assume loose/passive. Villain's play in this hand -- cold-calling 3 from the SB and check-calling every street -- has only helped cement that image for me.

I think your range on villain is too narrow. You'll frequently see people showdown ace high hands here like AK and AQ and often worse. Sometimes you'll see weird stuff if they're a really loose. The T pairing on the end makes me more confident that we are ahead.

I started betting a lot more rivers, and I'm constantly amazed what people will call with.

You're right this is a thin value bet, and maybe a check is better if we plan to call the raise. I still like bet/fold.

[coolhanded]

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here is their thought process. hmmm, 3bets to me, the pot will be big. wow, i have an ace. click.

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That's good stuff---reminds me of a guy I played against last night.

I agree plenty of players at these tables will call with Ax, but hero shouldn't assume he's up against one of these without knowing.

Villain's basically calling 3 cold with KTo from SB was dumb, so hero should file that away.

[Lmn55d]

Standard.

[MAxx]

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I bet/fold this river without a read.

If I know the player is aggressive/tricky, I bet/call the river.

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This is my thought process. I'll add that most players arent aggressive/tricky with their river checkraises. Therefore, I think percentage wise it would be more correct to assume that a river cr is real far more often then it's not......and so I'd rather wait till i'm up a against a player that I sense is capable.

Edit: And I dont think you are good here 1 in 12 vs unknowns. Against tricky players sure man.

THis hand looks like a standard bet/fold to me.

[Lmn55d]

doesn't it seem weird to you that a villain would play top pair passively until the river then checkrasie it? I mean I've seen it before and this could be a set as well, but I think its definitely worth a call against an unknown. The actions up to that point seem a bit contradictory and the river is a great scare card.

[sammy_g]

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I agree plenty of players at these tables will call with Ax, but hero shouldn't assume he's up against one of these without knowing.

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Right, but what good players just call here with *any* hand when it's 3 bets to them? Good players cap or fold in this spot.

The guy called 3 bets cold from the small blind and just checked/called every street. I'm going to assume loose/passive donkey until he shows me I'm wrong.