River cap too much?

[SeaEagle]

No offense but you are assuming villian is retarded. And you linked to a thread where villian was pretty much a vegetable. In my experience, some of the best post-flop players are lags - that's how they still have money to play with after playing 35% of their hands.

I think there's better than a 50% chance that villian's line of play throughout the hand means a T, so I'd check. I wouldn't be surprised to see him turn over a K, or even a 72 for that matter, but I think it'll be a T most of the time - which means a call after the 3-bet.

I'm interested as to why you're proposing a bet/call line on the river and not a bet/3-bet line, given that you're proposing a cap in the OP line.

[crunchy1]

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No offense but you are assuming villian is retarded.

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Not at all - I'm assuming Villian has been observed to be aggressive but, for the most part - unknown.

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And you linked to a thread where villian was pretty much a vegetable.

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My comparison to the link thread was comparing Villian in this thread to Hero in the linked thread.


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I'm interested as to why you're proposing a bet/call line on the river and not a bet/3-bet line, given that you're proposing a cap in the OP line.

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I never suggested anywhere in this thread that capping the river was a good option. My one suggested line has been to bet and call a raise on the river.

I thought that you agreed with me?!? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[SeaEagle]

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I thought that you agreed with me?!?

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Oops. My bad. In my OP, I should have said (given that hero already c/red) that I would have called the 3-bet. I thought your disagreement with my "there's a T in his hand" meant that you didn't want to just call the 3-bet.

And yes, I agree with you that betting out the river is the best choice.

[callmedonnie]

It looks a lot like he has a flush to me. And because of the board, a flush is more common then a ten. If he is very LAG a cap may be appropriate. I might just call a reraise, but I don't think that either is a major mistake that will make much money/lose much money in the long run.

[shant]

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I disagree on the basis that there are more hands that will call 3-cold PF that contain a King rather than a Ten. Given 3-Tens on the board this reduces the probability that Villian holds a Ten even further.


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Do you think he waited to c/r this flushed and paired turn against a PF 3-bettor with a lone K?

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Look at the action again. The only time anyone is checkraised is when the OP checkraises the river.

[SeaEagle]

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Look at the action again. The only time anyone is checkraised is when the OP checkraises the river.

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Ahh. Once again my lack of hand reading skills rears it's ugly head. Is should have said "Do you think he waited to raise this flushed and paired turn against a PF 3-bettor with a lone K?" [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[shant]

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Look at the action again. The only time anyone is checkraised is when the OP checkraises the river.

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Ahh. Once again my lack of hand reading skills rears it's ugly head. Is should have said "Do you think he waited to raise this flushed and paired turn against a PF 3-bettor with a lone K?" [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

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Ah OK. One move shows more strength than the other, so I was just making sure you weren't weighing the action wrong. I think it is possible that a LAG player waits until the turn with a K because they're so tricky like that. I would've played this the same, but I would have called the river 3-bet.

[sudic]

I know I'm probably looking at shadows and under the bed too much, but isn't it possible that a tricky player is holding KK here? And he let his opponents do the betting earlier for him?

[SeaEagle]

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It looks a lot like he has a flush to me. And because of the board, a flush is more common then a ten.

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The turn looks like a flush. But even a pretty crappy player will see the three Ts on board and realize that his flush isn't such a good holding any more. I'm not saying a flush wouldn't 3-bet this river, but it would have to be more as a bluff that as an actual belief that he's winning.

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I might just call a reraise, but I don't think that either is a major mistake that will make much money/lose much money in the long run.

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I'm too lazy today to figure out what the odds of you holding AA when 3 cards of the same rank hit the board, but I'd guess you're right about the lifetime value of the extra bet being pretty small.

[TylerK]

Any chance he plays KK like this PF?