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#11
07-26-2005, 12:52 PM
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Re: Big Blind 99 against button raise - Help?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I think a lot of players will call you w/ two overcards, and I just don't see a reason to put it all on a coinflip given your stack, and that point in the tournament. [/ QUOTE ] It's not a coinflip. You are ahead like 57-43 against AKo-ATo. It's about even against JTs or QJs. You also have pot odds and folding equity. If you call, you are out of position postflop. Also you might get called by a lower pair, a medium suited connector, or Ax where you are a big favorite. You will also frequently get villain to fold hands like these and worse junk hands he was stealing with. Don't be weak/tight. [/ QUOTE ] I agree with the push. The chances are strong that he is button-raising and stealing your blind. If he backs off and folds, then he knows that you're going to play back at him and he'll likely be raising with strong hands on the button from here on out. I think a lot of good can be made in the long term by pushing. 
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#14
07-26-2005, 01:20 PM
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Re: Big Blind 99 against button raise - Help?
[ QUOTE ]
With 99 vs AJ and pot odds, your EV is like +2.5 x BB. A lot of times you will bust out with the right play. It was a straightforward decision. You made the only play. [/ QUOTE ] Again, I disagree. Hero could have bet the flop, and villian probably would have folded when he probably didn't have any draws (I don't know 100% for sure since we aren't given the board). I don't think the EV edge was enough, especially since hero has a reasonably big enough stack. If hero had maybe 6 or 7 bbs, that's a push back or a call/push on the flop situation. Here it's just uneccessary IMO.
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#15
07-26-2005, 01:21 PM
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Re: Big Blind 99 against button raise - Help?
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With 99 vs AJ and pot odds, your EV is like +2.5 x BB. A lot of times you will bust out with the right play. It was a straightforward decision. You made the only play. [/ QUOTE ] Its ridiculous to say that pushing 23bbs is the only play. A case could certainly be made for smoothcalling
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#16
07-26-2005, 01:24 PM
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Re: Big Blind 99 against button raise - Help?
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Its ridiculous to say that pushing 23bbs is the only play. A case could certainly be made for smoothcalling [/ QUOTE ] Yeah because you can get away from a AKQ flop with 20 BB's, or bet on a 257 flop with the best hand.
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#17
07-26-2005, 01:24 PM
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Re: Big Blind 99 against button raise - Help?
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Its ridiculous to say that pushing 23bbs is the only play. A case could certainly be made for smoothcalling [/ QUOTE ] A bad case. When in doubt push to defend your blind. Plus the push looks like AK-AJ, KQ, or a suited connector, so a lower pp is likely to call.
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#18
07-26-2005, 01:42 PM
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Re: Big Blind 99 against button raise - Help?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Its ridiculous to say that pushing 23bbs is the only play. A case could certainly be made for smoothcalling [/ QUOTE ] A bad case. When in doubt push to defend your blind. Plus the push looks like AK-AJ, KQ, or a suited connector, so a lower pp is likely to call. [/ QUOTE ] I disagree. You will usually only get called with TT-AA, AK-AQ. Maybe you'll get some calls from 88-66. But the point is that the times where you do get called you are often a 4:1 dog, and usually no better than a 55:45 favorite. I don't have pokerstove on this computer, but my intuition is that this is a marginal play against a reasonable range of hands. The times where you are up against TT-AA you lose 19bbs. You have to make up for that with A LOT of folds (in which you only win 4 bbs) and 55:45 situations for the play to be +EV
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#19
07-26-2005, 01:57 PM
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Re: Big Blind 99 against button raise - Help?
[ QUOTE ]
I disagree. You will usually only get called with TT-AA, AK-AQ. [/ QUOTE ] This is button versus BB. Button will call with a lot of hands. However, he probably has something pretty marginal he has to fold, so you pick up a nice pot. Getting him to put all that money in a 57-43 dog plus pot odds with ace/face is about as EV+ as getting him to fold. If villain has a bigger pair, you probably also lose a lot of chips or go bust if you smooth call. If you play the flop OK, smooth calling is also very EV+, but pushing is better for discouraging future steals.
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#20
07-26-2005, 02:11 PM
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Re: Big Blind 99 against button raise - Help?
Ok, let's assume that in this position, our opponent will have two overcards about 60% of the time (I think this is fair considering random distribution and most people's raising standards) An overcard to the 9s are going to fall something like 85% of the time (I used to know exactly, someone correct me.)
So, Dave, you're arguing that regardless of the texture of the flop, you bet out 2/3 pot? So basically, if they hit their hand and you're able to fold to a raise, you end up losing about 800 chips on the hand, whereas if they miss and fold, you only win 450? I just don't think this is the best way to go about the hand. If you push, you're going to win the 450 without letting your opponent see three new cards (which is obviously to their advantage more than yours.) The chance that they have TT-AA is VERY slim, and they'd probably call with 66-88 cancelling out a few of those big pairs.... Maybe i don't have enough confidence in my flop game, but I really don't like risking 1/7th of my stack pf with a hand that is sooooo easily beat on the flop
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