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#1
07-26-2005, 12:27 PM
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You know he will want a showdown till the river!
I am encountering many such situations online (Party and PokerStars) where an opponent with a draw hand will call you for a showdown till the river with incorrect number of outs and unfavorable pot odds. If they get lucky you are busted.
In a limit Hold'em game the answer is simple. Call them if you have the correct odds all the way and you will win over the long run. However, in No Limit an opponent getting lucky by stupidly staying in the pot can seriously impair you or cripple your chances for success. I suspect that even a great poker player can lose his seat in a key tourney by encountering one or two such crippling situations. The question is this. If YOU KNOW that your opponent will call you no matter what till the river should you then not risk as much of your chips as you really should and hope that he doesn't get lucky? In other words, is there a NLH wisdom that some of you better players may have that says certain pots are not subject to conventional thinking and exceptions need to be made to account for an unruly opponent? 
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#2
07-26-2005, 01:04 PM
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Re: You know he will want a showdown till the river!
If he flops a 4-flush, he will only hit his flush 35% of the time, no matter how lucky he seems to be. Therefor you will win 65% of the time. The times you check it down to make sure he misses, you won't make the money you deserve. How exactly do you expect to build your stack? You can't wait for an 5 separate AA vs. KK confrontations.
Jason P.S. It sucks to have 2/3 of your stack in the pot when the guy rivers his flush, but there isn't much you can do about it. I'll take 65/35 anyday of the week.
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#3
07-26-2005, 02:09 PM
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Re: You know he will want a showdown till the river!
As long as you are betting enough to make it so he doesn't have a positive expectation, you're playing the hand correctly. That doesn't make you feel any better when he makes his hand though. If you're against a chaser who you are almost certain is on a draw, wait till the turn blanks to make a big bet.
Say you're heads up on the flop and he puts out a tiny bet, like t400 into a pot of t1900 and you have position on him and an overpair to the board. You can just call that bet and then push if the turn bricks. Give him the worst of it on the turn, conserving chips when you think he's drawn out and also conserving chips for the turn so that you can make a bigger bet into him. Regardless of what kind of calling station he is, he will most likely not chase his flush on the river if you've overbet the pot. If he does, even better. Just know that you are giving up EV to do this. To play this way you have to be certain of your read, though. Sometimes what looks like a flush draw blocking bet can be a feeler bet with a made hand, or a trap bet with a set. If you are first to act, you have to revert to normal strategy and take away his odds. If you can't take losing in this fashion, stick to limit tourneys.
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#4
07-26-2005, 03:17 PM
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Re: You know he will want a showdown till the river!
Hmmm, if your read is really that good (?) that you can put opponent on flush draw with certainty (??), then it's easy to underbet the flop, fold if the flush card turns (not pay him off), and overbet the turn if it doesn't - to get max value when he's paying all his chips to draw one card for 9 outs. You'll give up some EV for a few chips and gain a ton of EV for most of your chips.
Fossilman applied something alike to this strategy on the WSOP ME hand that (basically) busted him; after a standard PF raise he underbet the flop, and 80% of the chips went in on the turn with opponent holding only undercards & a four-flush to his pocket KK. Opponent got lucky and hit his 9-outer (or was it an 8-outer with Greg holding the Kh?), but I guarantee you Greg would make the same play without any hesitation. I would strongly question that more than a few if any of the regular posters here can read that well. Best, McMelchior (Johan)
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#5
07-26-2005, 04:19 PM
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Re: You know he will want a showdown till the river!
[ QUOTE ]
Fossilman applied something alike to this strategy on the WSOP ME hand that (basically) busted him; after a standard PF raise he underbet the flop, and 80% of the chips went in on the turn with opponent holding only undercards & a four-flush to his pocket KK. Opponent got lucky and hit his 9-outer (or was it an 8-outer with Greg holding the Kh?), but I guarantee you Greg would make the same play without any hesitation. [/ QUOTE ] bad thing there is he might call with a gutshot straight just to knock out a former world champ [img]/images/graemlins/ooo.gif[/img]
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