Boiling on the bubble...

britspin · #1 07-25-2005, 08:04 PM

So we're down to 19 and 18 pays.

I'm second short stack UTG with 1100 chips. Blinds are 800/400. I've just seen the shortstack at another table triple up to 750 chips from the BB. He's disconnected so I know he'll fold his SB. Next smallest stack is 3k or so.

My strategy of folding to 18th is shot. I've got three hands to play.

Table is sixhanded. UTG I get AToff.

Push or fold?

I'm hoping I did right.

KyleM · #2 07-25-2005, 08:11 PM

push, and delete your post and pretend you never asked this question

britspin · #3 07-25-2005, 08:22 PM

Well that's what I did, but then I wondered if I was right.

Or, to put it another way, what is the tipping point here if AToff is an easy push. I guess what troubled me is I didn't know how to work out if I was right.

If I push and win I make the money. I'm considering I'll likely do that 1 time in three (I'm getting called in at least three spots for my paltry thou, so I'm guessing 33% is generous.)

If I fold: I get another one or two hands. Lets say there's a 1% chance someone loses it and busts in each hand.

In BB of course, there's a 10% chance I get a better hand and the big stacks might not want to fight each other in EP/MP just to bust the bubble.

Then in the SB, with 250 chips, what are my chance of lucking out against 2/3 randoms? 15%?

I began to have nightmares that the fold was right. If the utility of seeing two more hands is greater than my likely chance of winning this one, I should fold.

Of course, I pushed, but I didn't know how to calculate.

davidross · #4 07-25-2005, 08:37 PM

Of course the first mistake is letting it get so low that you can't make anyone fold. As much as you want to sneak into the money, you haqve to start taking risks when you get below 10 BB's left.

You have to play your AT here, it's just too good. I would fold a lot of hands though and take my shot from the BB, you're just aiming for 18th place now.

inanevoyage · #5 07-25-2005, 08:46 PM

[ QUOTE ]
push, and delete your post and pretend you never asked this question

[/ QUOTE ]

Heh, between this and the other topics advice you've given, it's starting to look like you aren't capable of constructive advice that doesn't somehow poke at the OP to begin with.

I'd find you a lot less abrasive and a lot more worthy of information if you didn't act like you were so above anything.

britspin · #6 07-25-2005, 09:05 PM

David,

Thanks for the response.

Youre right about not starting from there! From about three orbits before I was looking for a pushable hand, but never got one. The AT troubled me because afterwards, i was sure it was right, but i realised i didn't know what a fold would have looked like. K10? QJoff? i know it's marginal and will likely never happen again, but it bugged me!

Oh, i pushed and bubbled out. No-one gave me a $10,000 entry for WSOP next year tho!

nath · #7 07-25-2005, 10:16 PM

[ QUOTE ]
From about three orbits before I was looking for a pushable hand, but never got one.

[/ QUOTE ]

In that case, you probably need to lower your hand standards-- and specifically stop looking at just your two cards and start looking at the whole situation. From a couple of orbits ago "first in" should have been a primary consideration.

MagicMan08 · #8 07-25-2005, 10:20 PM

I agree

britspin · #9 07-26-2005, 05:59 AM

I think you're right- after I got broken I was prob too tight, but what's the standard I should be looking at? While reading about this topic, I saw an article saying A-mid kicker with less than 10 BB is a push in an unopened pot.

Reviewing my HH, the best hand I could have pushed first was QJs UTG+2 with 3000 chips w/ 7 players while lying in 18th. Is that a push?

Next orbit I dumped A4off after a raise and a call from two big stacks. I thought this was an easy fold considering I was 18th but am I being too tight on bubble?

KyleM · #10 07-26-2005, 06:19 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
push, and delete your post and pretend you never asked this question

[/ QUOTE ]

Heh, between this and the other topics advice you've given, it's starting to look like you aren't capable of constructive advice that doesn't somehow poke at the OP to begin with.

I'd find you a lot less abrasive and a lot more worthy of information if you didn't act like you were so above anything.

[/ QUOTE ]

Me too.