River cap too much?

mattrado · #1 07-26-2005, 04:43 AM

CO is pretty LAG. River cap too much?

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (8 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG raises, 2 folds, Hero 3-bets, CO calls, 3 folds, UTG calls.

Flop: (10.33 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets, CO calls, UTG calls.

Turn: (6.66 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets, CO raises, UTG folds, Hero calls.

River: (10.66 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)

Hero checks, CO bets, Hero raises, CO 3-bets, Hero caps, CO calls.

Final Pot: 18.66 BB

SoSo · #2 07-26-2005, 05:04 AM

No, he'll cap here with any k and the last 10 so 3 out of 4 times u have him destroyed in a massive pot cap it every time.

SeaEagle · #3 07-26-2005, 05:11 AM

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a massive pot cap it every time.

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Why does the size of the pot matter?

SeaEagle · #4 07-26-2005, 05:19 AM

I think villians play pretty much indicates he has a T and I would've just called the river.

On the turn, his check-raise means either AK, a T, a flush, or a bluff - and he didn't cap your PF 3-bet, which a LAG will do with AK.

So on the river, he either has a T or he's bluffing. He'd have to be a pretty big moron to 3-bet bluff this river, since you're not folding for a single bet. Which pretty much narrows his holdings down to a T.

mattrado · #5 07-26-2005, 05:40 AM

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He'd have to be a pretty big moron to 3-bet bluff this river, since you're not folding for a single bet. Which pretty much narrows his holdings down to a T.

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That makes sense. Villian was a LAG but not retarded (unfortunately), so I guess a river call makes the most sense.

thanks,
Matt

crunchy1 · #6 07-26-2005, 08:22 AM

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I think villians play pretty much indicates he has a T and I would've just called the river.

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I disagree on the basis that there are more hands that will call 3-cold PF that contain a King rather than a Ten. Given 3-Tens on the board this reduces the probability that Villian holds a Ten even further.

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he didn't cap your PF 3-bet, which a LAG will do with AK.

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Sometimes - and sometimes not. I think this is pretty read dependent and we don't have enough information from the OP to make this assumption.

crunchy1 · #7 07-26-2005, 08:32 AM

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CO is pretty LAG.

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Villian was a LAG but not retarded (unfortunately)

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When I see conflicting reads in posts it leads me to believe that, in reality, Villian is fairly unknown here. I'm not sure if this is true but, if this is the case I think that a river bet/call makes most sense. You don't want to miss a bet here on the river and you also don't want to open yourself up to a 3-bet by checkraising.

SeaEagle · #8 07-26-2005, 08:39 AM

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I disagree on the basis that there are more hands that will call 3-cold PF that contain a King rather than a Ten. Given 3-Tens on the board this reduces the probability that Villian holds a Ten even further.

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Do you think he waited to c/r this flushed and paired turn against a PF 3-bettor with a lone K?

SeaEagle · #9 07-26-2005, 08:47 AM

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I think that a river bet/call makes most sense. You don't want to miss a bet here on the river and you also don't want to open yourself up to a 3-bet by checkraising.

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Even if you have a read, I think this is probably the best line. The c/r line lets villian check through his bad hands and bet (and 3-bet) his good ones, and there's a lot of hands he could have that he'll feel compelled to call a single bet because of the pot size.

crunchy1 · #10 07-26-2005, 08:47 AM

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I disagree on the basis that there are more hands that will call 3-cold PF that contain a King rather than a Ten. Given 3-Tens on the board this reduces the probability that Villian holds a Ten even further.

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Do you think he waited to c/r this flushed and paired turn against a PF 3-bettor with a lone K?

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Yes. After Hero 3-bets PF a LAG Villian (non-retarded?!?) is not going to give Hero credit for having a flush or a Ten on the turn. Villian probably thinks that if anything the Ten strengthens his hand by making 2-pair. Which makes it even more likely that he's going all-out on the river thinking that he's best or splitting when he fills-up.

I wouldn't be surprised if Villian (non-retarded?!?) had thoughts similiar the JD in this recent post.

Don't misinterpret my analysis - there's definitely a possibility that Villian holds the 4th Ten - I won't discount that. Hero c/r-ing and capping the river may be spewing as well - I'm not sure. I don't think that our read on Villian is good enough to pick a definitive line. So if we're going under the assumption that we've seen Villian be LAGgy but, he's really unknown, then I think we need to take a bet/call line on the river.