Luck/Skill Ratio: Where Does Poker Stand? - Page 2

luckOverSkill · #11 07-25-2005, 08:01 PM

>A very good Scrabble player would stand no chance in a
>game against an expert player.

An expert Scrabble player can pull down $50Ks in the
biggest Scrabble tournament.

An expert poker player can pull down $7.5M in the
biggest poker tournament.

I'm not knocking Scrabble. I'm not knocking poker.
Take your pick - who would you rather be?

[img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

UCF THAYER · #12 07-25-2005, 08:32 PM

[ QUOTE ]
>A very good Scrabble player would stand no chance in a
>game against an expert player.

An expert Scrabble player can pull down $50Ks in the
biggest Scrabble tournament.

An expert poker player can pull down $7.5M in the
biggest poker tournament.

I'm not knocking Scrabble. I'm not knocking poker.
Take your pick - who would you rather be?

[img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Poker is much more profitable BECAUSE of the luck. I was just pointing out to the OP that there really isn't even much short term luck involved in Scrabble.

imported_stealthcow · #13 07-25-2005, 08:43 PM

you contradict yourself with this scrabble comparision. because the odds of some one getting such a horrible board are probably quite similar to someone getting deal hands worse then T8o for maybe 30 hands in a row.

so i think scrabble fits in with poker in that in the short term there is "luck" but its a skill game in the long term.

GMan42 · #14 07-25-2005, 11:26 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Then there are games such as Scrabble where all the skill in the world won't help you win with a rack of AAEEEEO.

[/ QUOTE ]

Look for an R on the board and make AREAE, then take your chances drawing to the EEO. Very +EV. [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

shermn27 · #15 07-27-2005, 09:25 PM

Was told by a good friend today that a man in the LA Times wrote that Poker is 96% luck and 4% skill. Personally, I would like to think it is more like 90% luck and 10% skill, but who knows. I am not sure about who wrote the article though because I didn't see it myself. If anyone has seen this, please put the link on here...sounds interesting.

AaronBrown · #16 07-27-2005, 09:58 PM

In addition to the game and the length of time, as others have mentioned, you have to figure in the ante/blind structure relative to the maximum bet. In the later stages of tournaments, when the antes and blinds get very big, the game is almost all luck. In no-limit games with large stacks compared to the antes and blinds, skill is much more important. In the extreme, if you have to ante your entire stack, the game is just luck. Whoever gets the best hand wins.

I also think it's not symmetrical. A bad poker player will certainly lose over time. He might win money one session in ten, almost never more than two sessions in a row. But very good poker players seem to go broke frequently, they certainly don't win 90% of their sessions. 60% maybe.

An average player can beat a bad player almost as frequently as an expert can, and more frequently than an expert can beat an average player.

Hextallin · #17 07-27-2005, 10:18 PM

[ QUOTE ]
>A very good Scrabble player would stand no chance in a
>game against an expert player.

An expert Scrabble player can pull down $50Ks in the
biggest Scrabble tournament.

An expert poker player can pull down $7.5M in the
biggest poker tournament.

I'm not knocking Scrabble. I'm not knocking poker.
Take your pick - who would you rather be?

[img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

However, A poor poker player will ALWAYS lose more than a poor scrabble player.

sully4321 · #18 07-28-2005, 01:38 AM

ratio for outcome of one hand = 90% luck 10% skill
ratio for outcome of 1-3 single-table tournaments = 50% luck 50% skill
ratio of 1 large multi-table tournament = 60% luck 40% skill
ratio for lifetime of poker = 10% luck 90% skill

Xelent · #19 07-28-2005, 03:15 AM

I love it when people pull numbers out of their @$$, this is why poker is profitable [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Colonel Kataffy · #20 07-28-2005, 03:51 AM

[ QUOTE ]
There are games such as Chess that are about 100% skill.

[/ QUOTE ]

I understand that there isn't a random element in chess that is analagous to the deal of the cards, but I still believe that there is a luck element in chess. If you put a billioncajilion monkeys against a billioncajilion Fischers, one of those damned dirty apes is bound to win one of the the games on accident. When he does this, it will of course be luck. So, I definitely wouldn't say that chess is 100% skill.