PL Hand #6

[GooperMC]

Seat 2: Hero ( $26.85 )
Seat 7: caller1 ( $41.47 )
Seat 9: caller2 ( $8.16 )

Preflop: Hero is UTG with T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
I pot, 4 callers.

I am trying this out and am liking it more and more.

Flop: 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, I pot, 2 callers.

Most likely someone has the 3 but if nobody does I can take it down right here, if not I have a ton of outs. Even if they have the 3 I might be able to push them off it with a large turn bet.

Of course I am worried about 55 and 53 but I still have low outs against them

Turn: Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
I pot, caller1 calls, caller2 calls all in

Gotta push here, right?

River: A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players, 1 all-in)</font>
I check, caller1 checks.

Eww. With 2 players I assume that I am beat both ways and would prefer to keep my last $7. I don’t think that a $7 bet will push him off anything and obviously I will call if he puts me all in

What do you guys think?

[Jorge10]

It seems like he just had A/2 and was chasing since he just kept calling, but you didnt put the size of the side pot maybe its worth a bet. Seems like the other guy got you both for high as well, how about some results?

[GooperMC]

Side pot was around $20 and so was the main pot. I would have pushed in on the river if I had some sort of low. Since I had no low and no fold equity I thought that I was in pretty bad shape so I tried to save my last $7.

[DyessMan89]

I would have played it the same way. No problems here.

[gergery]

I don't like potting UTG, too often you get 3-4 callers and have no idea where you are.

I'd check-decide the flop. Someone will have a calling hand like 3xxx or 55xx or A24 around 80% of the time here, and might just call with bare A2 as well, so you have little fold equity, and if they reraise you are not happy.

You have lots of outs to hit a hand. But the % of time you hit divided by the % of time that hand remains good and isn't splitting is fairly low.

Turn- i suppose so, since you'd like A2 to fold and with no reraise you are less likely to be against 55, 35 and with both of them in its fairly likely they both have 3's.

River - agree, they are very likely to have 3's and if so then A3 is very likely.

[GooperMC]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd check-decide the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]
I was thinking that wanted to play this hand fast or not at all. I agree that I don't have a lot of fold equity on the flop but I think that I would on the turn.

If I pot on the flop I think that 55 or 35 would re-pot unless they have A2 as well. If someone re-pots I can happily get away from this hand knowing that I am way behind. If I don't get re-raise I can figure out who called and depending on the turn / callers I was going to pot the turn which would at that point I think that I have decent fold equity.

With second best hand I feel like I need to play them fast or not at all. If I check and someone in LP bets I don't really gain much info about their hand. By playing fast I gain more info and hopefully gain some fold equity. Also if I check call on the flop and I turn the flush what do I do?

Am I off base here?

[GooperMC]

[ QUOTE ]
Someone will have a calling hand like 3xxx or 55xx or A24 around 80%

[/ QUOTE ]
Is this percentage calculated? I remember in a previous post you saying that with 5 opponents the probability of someone having trips or a boat was around .5, so .8 seems a little high to me.

What is the probability of someone having just 3xxx or 55xx?

[emptyshell]

What do people think of check-raising the flop here? It seems like that's the only way to get a non-full 3 out. If someone with a bare 3 does call, you are usually the (slight) EV favorite. Bad news if someone has A23 or a made fullhouse, though.

[gergery]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Someone will have a calling hand like 3xxx or 55xx or A24 around 80%

[/ QUOTE ]
Is this percentage calculated? I remember in a previous post you saying that with 5 opponents the probability of someone having trips or a boat was around .5, so .8 seems a little high to me.

What is the probability of someone having just 3xxx or 55xx?

[/ QUOTE ]

With 4 opponents here they have 16 cards. There are 45 unseen cards, so 45-16= 29 cards are in the deck and 16 cards in opponents hands. You need both 3s to be in the deck, so 29/45 AND the 3c, so * 28/44 = 41%. So 59% of the time at least one of the 3’s will be out. I’ll assume 3’s get played no more or less likely than average.

For 55, 1 opponent will have 55xx ~1.8% of the time C(3,2)*C(43,2) / C(45,4), so with 3 opponents (1-.982^3) = ~6% (add alittle to the number for inclu-exclu). Maybe alittle less since 55 might not be played so often, so call it 3%

For A2, dealt out 35% of the time and always played. Figure half the time someone will continue here with A24, A25, A267, A2KK, A2 w K-hi-flush, or cause they want to bluff-steal you etc. so maybe 18%

59+3+18 = 80%. Note: my math is not completely accurate. You’d need to use a ridiculous amount of inclusion-exclusion and assumptions on what would vs. would not be played to be accurate. So 80% is a ballpark. If you think they don’t play that many A2 hands then maybe its 70%. But the math tells you its probably not 60%

The most likely explanation for a prior post that gave a different % is having a different number of opponents, or possibly making a different assumption about their range of hands if, say, they’d acted already. But I sometimes add wrong too….

--Greg