PLO horror story on my 1st trip to Vegas....................

[folded_a_monster]

No point to this, just a story to tell. My first trip to Vegas and I bring $5000 in poker money (1/2 my bankroll). Couldn't wait to hit the Bellagio, but to my dismay there were no PL games (mostly all I play) so I sit in a 30/60 game with 1k. I hit 1 hand in a 5 hour session and my 1st grand is gone. No biggee, that's life, it happens. I lose another grand the next day in the same game with eerily similar results- 4 hours, 1 pot. No bigggee, that's life, it happens. After screwing around with blackjack and a little omaha 8/b I'm down to about $2500. The 3rd day comes and praise Jesus there's a PLO game starting with $5/$10 blinds. I buy in for $1500, and instantly take over the table. I play aggressively preflop because I am very good at reading hands and know when to push and when to lay down, so it's beneficial for me to build a pot because fewer opponents will be around. I'm making all the right plays, buying a few decent pots, laying down the right hands, and playing some of my best poker ever. After I work my $1500 up to a little under $5000, I get a pretty little AA36 ss UTG. I call and raise pot after a MP player put in a $20 raise, making it $200 or so to go. 3 callers, all act after me. Flop is a magnificent A [img]/forums/images/icons/diamond.gif[/img] T [img]/forums/images/icons/club.gif[/img] 2 [img]/forums/images/icons/heart.gif[/img] - faaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaantastic. I bet pot, $850 or so, and they all drop....................... except this Swedish guy who had about 12k in front of him (he bought in for 15k). He immediately asks how much I have in front of me, I say about 5 grand, and he counts out 50 one-hundred dollar bills. At this point, I've got him on either TTJQ, or something of the like. A set with a redraw. It was fairly obvious to the table that I had AA, and I'm fairly certain that if I showed it to him, he would've oplayed the same. He was there to gamble. All I know is that I wanted running sevens to fall. Anyway, I call, but fearing the loss of 5 grand, I offer to split the pot into two and run the turn and river twice. His exact words were "You look so good right now, what's the point?" I take that as a "No". The turn is a 4 [img]/forums/images/icons/diamond.gif[/img] , river is a Q [img]/forums/images/icons/diamond.gif[/img] . He shows his 2 [img]/forums/images/icons/spade.gif[/img] 2 [img]/forums/images/icons/club.gif[/img] J [img]/forums/images/icons/club.gif[/img] K [img]/forums/images/icons/club.gif[/img] for broadway and all of my hopes and dreams are wiped away. How I get beat by somebody who played everything wrong hurts my brain. He called a $200 preflop bet with 22KJ, raised me on the turn when it seemed fairly obvious I had AA, and turned down my very generous offer to run them twice. Vegas baby, Vegas.

[rtrombone]

I took the liberty of running your hand on twodimes. I didn't know the exact suits of your cards, so I picked suits that favored your opponent, for the hell of it:

pokenum -o as ah 3s 6d - 2s 2c jc kc -- ad tc 2h
Omaha Hi: 820 enumerated boards containing Tc Ad 2h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As 3s 6d Ah 631 76.95 189 23.05 0 0.00 0.770
2s Kc Jc 2c 189 23.05 631 76.95 0 0.00 0.230

Hands like this make me hesitant to play omaha. Set over set, and you're only around a 3.3 to 1 favorite? The inside straight draw and backdoor club draw give him that much of a chance? In hold 'em, he would've been toast.

I've been thinking about playing pot limit omaha, so that I'll have a chance to protect my hand, but how often do you get it all-in at the flop only to lose to some fish?

[folded_a_monster]

It's funny, cause the first thing I did when I got home was run the hand on twodimes. I was in fact almost an 80% favorite on the flop and almost 90% on the turn (not that it mattered because all of the money went in on the flop). I'll tell you what though, I'd put every last dime I owned every time if I knew I was that big a favorite (which I presumed holding AA), and I welcome all players who play their hands the way he played his. It just happened to be a horrible coincidence that this particular badbeat happened on the same hand in which the biggest pot I was ever involved in was at stake. That's why they call it gambling. Vegas baby, Vegas.

[muck_nutz]

"He called a $200 preflop bet with 22KJ, raised me on the turn when it seemed fairly obvious I had AA, and turned down my very generous offer to run them twice."

No offense, but how is that a "generous offer"? While its EV neutral variance reducing, given his propensity to put is money in with the worst of it and your short money he wants high variance.

"I'd put every last dime I owned every time if I knew I was that big a favorite "

That would be a pretty bad play if you thought this guy would continue to give you big advantages.

[nicky g]

By the time you had run your buy-in up to $5k you had almost half your bankroll in play. Don't you think this is a bit too much to risk?

[Guy McSucker]

Set over set, and you're only around a 3.3 to 1 favorite? The inside straight draw and backdoor club draw give him that much of a chance? In hold 'em, he would've been toast.

Don't think of it as set over set. Think of it as set against inside straight and backdoor flush.

In hold'em, AA vs KJsuited on an AT2 board with one of the KJ's suit is about 5-1 in favour of the AA, which is less that you would imagine, I think. The difference in the Omaha hand is that the aces have fewer redraws, since two 2s are gone and the case 2 makes quads for the opponent, and two further blanks are dead. If we imagine that in the hold'em matchup, the three 2s and the 3 and 6 are dead, it becomes only 4-1.

Guy.

[sam h]

This was certainly a bad beat, but there are many other ways to get stacked in Omaha. Since it happens to the very best players all the time in this high-variance game, you never should have 50% of your bankroll on the table and you arguably shouldn't be buying-in to begin with for even 20% of your bankroll, as that $1500 represented at the time.

Of course, that kind of restraint is easier said than done, especially in Vegaas and especially after a couple brutal days in 30-60 (which you didn't have nearly the bankroll to play as well to be honest).

[folded_a_monster]

Absolutely.