Interesting bubble hand - Page 2

schwza · #11 07-25-2005, 10:55 AM

i don't know. this is a pretty tough spot, cause i think a likely hand for him is pair+g/s. so the board pairing might make his hand. i definitely agree with the part about folding if a diamond/J/T hits.

my inclination is to not make a bet/raise on this hand.

ChuckNorris · #12 07-25-2005, 11:00 AM

I don't think hero has reason to believe he isn't ahead, and I don't like giving away cheap cards to flush draws, gutshots and weaker kickers. So p00sh.

schwza · #13 07-25-2005, 11:10 AM

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I don't think hero has reason to believe he isn't ahead, and I don't like giving away cheap cards to flush draws, gutshots and weaker kickers. So p00sh.

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well said. you just swayed me. villain won't want to call a marginal hand here on the bubble, i think. i probably haven't given enough weight to hands like K8, Q7, etc if villain is loose/bad.

durron597 · #14 07-25-2005, 11:13 AM

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I don't think hero has reason to believe he isn't ahead, and I don't like giving away cheap cards to flush draws, gutshots and weaker kickers. So p00sh.

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No better hand is folding, and I don't think any worse hands are calling. Why not wait a card to try to make a hand like K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] not be ahead anymore and push on a safe turn?

schwza · #15 07-25-2005, 11:21 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I don't think hero has reason to believe he isn't ahead, and I don't like giving away cheap cards to flush draws, gutshots and weaker kickers. So p00sh.

[/ QUOTE ]

No better hand is folding, and I don't think any worse hands are calling. Why not wait a card to try to make a hand like K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] not be ahead anymore and push on a safe turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

you fear 9 diamonds, 3 J's, 3 T's, 3 K's, and 2 Q's, but you don't know which ones you should be afraid of. if you push now you can eliminate the guessing games.

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No better hand is folding

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that might be true, but there are a lot of hands that you're slightly ahead of that you want to fold. QJ-type hands. and i think they will fold on the bubble, knowing they're almost definitely behind with up to 10 outs but maybe a lot fewer.

wiggs73 · #16 07-25-2005, 11:38 AM

My first thought was to push too.

Here is where the hand came from. The hand on that page actually occurs once they're 3-handed, but later talks about the same hand at a hypothetical 4-handed table. I found the mathematical analysis to be interesting and surprising.

schwza · #17 07-25-2005, 12:03 PM

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Now, if we call this opponent's bet, I believe he will bet the same T300 with his entire range, except maybe he'll drop some of the stone bluffs. And if we call him again, I think the same T300 bet is coming on the river with a similar range he bet the turn with.

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barring some in-depth read, which should have been mentioned in the original, this assumption is so wrong that trying to apply its conclusions to an actual hand is nuts.

the biggest thing i got out of that article is something i should have realized on my own a long time ago: once you get to 3-handed, the payouts are essentially 3 units for 1st, 1 for 2nd, 0 for 3rd. makes the whole "gamble for 1st" philosophy make more sense.

very interesting hand though, thanks for posting it.

uphigh_downlow · #18 07-25-2005, 12:18 PM

i definitely believe in not pushing here.

Calling is the best option. However I'm not entirely convinced that calling the turn is an equally good idea. I'm not entirely convinced that the villian will bet the river without much after two calls, or that Hero will(or should) try and value bet the river, unless he improves.

In addition, the pot is bigger on the turn. 900 more than the flop.

I'm too lazy to do it myself, but I would love to see some TE analysis of traising the turn, if a non cary card hits.

I think the min bet all along analysis might be too simplistic.