Simple handreading

[Harv72b]

[ QUOTE ]
EDIT: forgot to include AA (after reading everyone else's posts... doh) -- borrowed 10% from A6 (which should probably only be suited) and I think I gave too much to it anyway.

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The guy is 25/9/1.5. I think we can safely rule out him limping behind 2 others with AA in EP. EDIT: and then flat calling Hero's PFR.

[Klepton]

i'm glad you have time to post hands like these

too bad it wont make a f[/i]uck of difference

[Entity]

Hey Dave,

His flop bet is odd but players like this don't always make sense. I'm thinking that hands like K7s, K5s, 44, and 77, in descending order, seem likely. And we 3-bet. For value. Because he isn't folding.

Rob

[clownshoes]

Er for some reason I thought the turn was a 7. So theres a good chance he has 77 and not A7s.
I suck at reading

[elindauer]

Why the hell would you raise the flop?! TERRIBLE play. You could hardly diagram a better opportunity to slowplay. I hope you didn't really play this hand, and you just posted it as an exercise.

Good luck.
Eric

PS. as to your question, he probably has the case K (KQ, KJ, KTs) or a set. Raise as many times as you can.

[elindauer]

sthief, I recommend you give some more thought to how these hands play out if you are concerned about hand protection with top set on a K74 rainbow board. You should be looking to get as much action as possible, and then means flat calling the flop. Think about how much more common it is that your call keeps a hand like Ax, a small pocket pair, etc around to catch while drawing dead and payoff many big bets on later streets. Even against a gutshot, letting him in is hardly a problem, since he is barely getting the right odds given your huge redraw to his straight. Then there's the much more common situation when he turns a pair and pays off, or picks up runner-runner two pair and loses 4 BB, or runner-runner trips... You WANT these guys in there drawing!

Being overly sensitive to hand protection isn't a big leak, since in SOOOO many pots, this is the overriding strategy. It is a leak though.

-Eric

[TiltsMcFabulous]

In order of likelihood:

55
77
44
67 (if he is aggro/tricky)
68 ("")
65 ("")
K7/5/4
36
KQ/KJ/K10
AA
AK

You're miles ahead of almost everything he could be holding with outs in case he played 86 like a donkey. Obviously you raise. If he caps you, you put in one more raise on the river and call unimproved. If he calls and donk bets you with another straight maker falls on the river, you call. If he calls and a blank hits the river, you raise and cap it. It's obvious what to do when you fill.

Btw, this is not a "simple" handreading exercise, as you have not provided reads, and villian's hand range is quite extensive.

~ Tilts

[cmwck]

[ QUOTE ]
Not to derail this, but why did you raise the flop? This seems like a nice place to slowplay a little. Unless the players after you are liable to cold-call 2 with junk anyway.

I'll leave the hand-reading up to the new guys. Don't wanna spoil it for them.

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I tend to agree with this also. This looks like a great board to try to induce calls from players who are drawing dead. Of course, there's still the problem of whether to raise the turn once everyone calls the flop.

[Chris Daddy Cool]

i'm pretty sure you could have picked a better example to where hand reading actually even matters.

[Just_Like_on_TV]

I'm new and I think I only saw this in 1 other post: 65s. 25/9/1.5 that's probably a playable hand for that vpip range, a better hand like KQ or 77 he may have raised it up (probably not 44 though). 1.5 AF so he'll possibly bet his good draws for value (although a check-raise being the best way to do this might make the 65 a tad less likely...maybe he's dumb). On the turn he picked up a pair to go w/ his OESD, so he may even count himself as having up to possibly 13 outs to improve, so after he checked hoping to get a free card, he got mad so he tried to push you off your AQ w/ a check-raise (failed!). So, if none of the obvious set or K-face hands are there, I'd go w/ 65s.