Simple handreading

[Harv72b]

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Not to derail this, but why did you raise the flop? This seems like a nice place to slowplay a little. Unless the players after you are liable to cold-call 2 with junk anyway.

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I assumed that he was confident the SB, at least, would call 2 as readily as 1.

[clownshoes]

Yeah, youre right
I run bad [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[ggano]

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I really dont think hes limping a suited king in EP

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He's to sfer's right, who's on the button. So he's in the CO after 2 limpers.

[brettbrettr]

why'd you raise the flop?

[Harv72b]

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I really dont think hes limping a suited king in EP

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He's to sfer's right, who's on the button. So he's in the CO after 2 limpers.

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Three EP limpers to me

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[jrbick]

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For the newer posters, an online 10-handed game on Party.

Three EP limpers to me and I raise KK on the button. Terrible SB calls, the rest call. 5 players, 10 SBs.

Flop is K74 rainbow. Checks to the player on my right who bets, I raise, folds back to him and he calls. His stats are roughly 25/9/1.5 and he seems unremarkable from 2 orbits of observation.

HU for 7 BBs. Turn is a 5. He checks, I bet, he checkraises. Give me a plan and a range of hands he could have.

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Range of hands:

AA - 10%

77 - 20%

44 - 20%

55 - 20%

A6 - 20%

68 - 1%

AK, KQ, - 5%

KJ, KT, K7, K4, K5 - 4%

(I don't think we can give him K4 or K5... K7 is even questionable. I'll just throw them out there though since they are all possible holdings w/ a turn check/raise on this board. I don't think the 5 helped him at all though as he was most likely looking to get the bets in on the big-money streets. That's why I give more towards another set. one of the K's seems more likely than what I gave it credit for, but there's only ONE K left so I don't see how we can give it more than what I did here. If the Turn-5 makes a 2 flush THEN maybe we can count KXs).

Did the Turn make a 2 flush? If so we need to account for some specific suited hands.

I raise/call the turn and plan on capping a non flush/non straight card on the River if possible. We need to be best at showdown with a line like this (from the turn c/r) 27% of the time. I think we own this more than 75% of the time and probably more like 80%. I see no other choice really with the information we have.

This looks like a slow play and I really think we see a set here more than we do anything else. If the dude has 86 then we are unlucky, but given he's not a totally loose player, I doubt he has it. It's the only hand we're behind against and since I say he has a set or 2P raising the T will still give us max value on our holding since he's calling down ~100% of the time with either of those holdings.

I don't know if ANY of this is right, but how else will I learn? Thanks for posting this, Sfer.

EDIT: forgot to include AA (after reading everyone else's posts... doh) -- borrowed 10% from A6 (which should probably only be suited) and I think I gave too much to it anyway.

[dantheman_05]

dont raise flop

[baronzeus]

He has 55, 77, 75, 68s. Im guessing you raise, as you are good 95% of the time here.

[sthief09]

he limped in EP. he's pretty tight. he doesn'thave kings up. he's pretty passive so I doubt he has75 here and I think he's too tight to have 74s. he didn't bet a gutter into you. if the turn put a flush draw out that's not the suit of the king, KTs, K9s, or KJs are possible.

if not, I can't think of what he has other than a set or maybe KQo. I highly doubt this is a bluff, so I don't see what it really matters exactly what he has, since he's probably paying off a 3-bet. I don't see any reason to take measures to keep him on the pot.

[sthief09]

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why'd you raise the flop?

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I'd rather slowplay a set of jacks on this board, as it has more upside of keeping overcards in. also there are lots of straight draws on a 2 gapped board, and with all thsoe limpers, low cards make sense. a gut shot has 5-7 bets of implied odds on him even though he'll have a 10 out redraw. raising the flop also ahs the benefit if keeping whoever calls on the flop in the pot rather than blowing them off on the turn. middle pair might call 2 on the flop, then call again on the turn because the pot's so big, and maybe again on the river, whereas he'd end up folding the turn for 2 bets

but I think it mostly boils down to the fact that there aren't many hands that he wants to stay in that'll call for one bet but not two on a K high board.