QQ, hand protection, and being the calling station - Page 3

Rev. Good Will · #21 07-24-2005, 10:10 AM

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Back to having QQ in the CO, I'm still thinking this is a value raise though, even with implied odds we may be offering correct odds to continue, and (to paraphrase ArturiusX) not putting as much $ as we can in a pot in which we win a significant amount of the time is just not my style

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You can see from my earlier posts in this thread that I agree that raising the flop has value. It's just that I think raising the turn has more value [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

By the way, no one has yet commented on our turn action. Is that because calling down (versus raising) once someone from EP wakes up is standard and boring and not worthy of comment?

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I dunno, the pot is friggen big, nobody is going anywhere, so I think value is in raising both

reads on UTG? would he really call T9 or 54 PF? if he is a reasonable player, the only hand I see being played like that is 66-88

I'd prolly wuss out and call down from turn on [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

topspin · #22 07-24-2005, 10:12 AM

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reads on UTG? would he really call T9 or 54 PF?

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You did notice I posted in the CO here right? [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Sorry, I know that reads would make this hand easier to play.

Rev. Good Will · #23 07-24-2005, 10:22 AM

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reads on UTG? would he really call T9 or 54 PF?

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You did notice I posted in the CO here right? [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

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[img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

topspin · #24 07-24-2005, 10:37 AM

For the curious:

Paradise Poker 1/2 Hold'em (10 handed) handconverter.com

Preflop: Hero is CO with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. MP3 posts a blind of $1.50. Hero posts a blind of $1.
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, 1 fold, MP2 raises, MP3 (poster) calls, Hero (poster) 3-bets, 2 folds, BB calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls.

Flop: (22 SB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (7 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, UTG+2 checks, MP2 bets, MP3 folds, Hero calls, BB calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls.

Turn: (14 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (6 players)
BB checks, UTG bets, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, MP2 folds, Hero calls, BB folds.

River: (18 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
UTG bets, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 calls, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 21 BB

Results in white below: 
UTG has 5c 5d (two pair, sixes and fives).
UTG+2 has Kd 7s (two pair, sevens and sixes).
Hero has Qs Qd (two pair, queens and sixes).
Outcome: Hero wins 21 BB. 

I'm really curious about what MP2 has here. Getting 1:17 he's getting odds to call with just about anything.

You'll also see why I had questions about raising the turn.

droolie · #25 07-24-2005, 11:14 AM

Great hand topsin! Bravo!

Raising this flop is a big mistake that will often cost you a huge pot.

This is textbook SSH wait until the turn to raise your hand. You would have been able to present the field with 7.5:1 odds for the gutshots and other weak draws. This pot is too big and our hand is too vulnerable to mess around.

Nice calldown topspin. Another SSHE concept nicely applied.

Aaron W. · #26 07-24-2005, 11:21 AM

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I'm really curious about what MP2 has here. Getting 1:17 he's getting odds to call with just about anything.

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Most likely, it's something like KQ (maybe KJs not clubs). He might be weak-tight enough to do that with AK with the paired board and 3-straight, but I find AK usually ends up calling down anyway. He has the preflop 3-bettor acting behind him, who just called the flop which possibly indicates that his king outs might be bad (because Hero might very well have AK because he "should have raised" his overpair), and might be drawing dead because of the board texture.

fflyer · #27 07-24-2005, 04:47 PM

Sure, if the pot is short handed. The problem here is that I have a hand that I think is the best at the moment and I want to do what I can to ensure that it remains the best. If I raise here, it is correct for anyone with an Ace or King plus a card lower than a Queen to fold. This is because the holder of the Ace or King cannot count three clean outs for his overcard, assuming that he believes that he has one given the betting so far. Raising the flop therefore improves my winning chances as well as getting money into the pot while I am ahead.
The drawback of course is that it might give anyone chasing a gutshot draw the correct odds to call a bet on the turn, whereas by waiting until the turn to raise I might make it mathematically incorrect for him to do so. If the opposition know enough about pot odds to fold their gutshot draws, a call on the flop has improved my chance of beating them while making it less likely that I will beat an Ace or a King. Which is more likely?
On balance I prefer to raise the flop because it means I win more money when I do win the hand (since raising the turn is intended to fold out gutshots and I will therefore end up with less callers than when I raise the flop).
No doubt someone can tell me if this logic is flawed.

eviljeff · #28 07-24-2005, 05:01 PM

this is an instaraise on the flop. protect your hand dude.

mockingbird · #29 07-27-2005, 11:19 PM

I would raise the flop for value (you also might get one or more players to fold). I would call the turn.

oreogod · #30 07-29-2005, 05:41 AM

I think not raising this flop is a bigger mistake then waiting until the turn. 1st u have to look at the situation. MP2 bets...if u call, so does everyone else...there is no guarentee that MP2 will bet the turn again after getting so many callers. In fact if u were to take away the turn action of the hand, I would have said the same thing.

Also, look whatelse happened...it got bet from an earlier position on the turn, now the concept u were misapplying in this situation has pretty much gone out the window.

If you could be absolutly positive that MP2 would bet the turn again, then maybe you'd wait. But as it is, u have to raise the flop.