Structured Hand Analysis (A little long)

[nyrush]

In HOH II, Dan discusses creating a spreadsheet to determine if a hand is a good hand to go all in with in specific situations as well as the minimum hand for an all in play. He calculates the EV of the hand by analyzing opp calling preferences and thus what chance you have of them all folding and what would happen if they called you depending on what hand they have. I was wondering if Dan is wrong here. The example he uses is 10 8, you're in 5th position and he wants to know if you should fold or raise all-in. You have 90,000 with 3,000/6,000 blinds and only enough $ to last four more rounds of antes and blinds. There is 11,000 of dead money in the pot, but even though he has determined that the play is +EV, is it worth risking 90,000 of chips and 1s tourney life for 11,000 chips and an EV of about $1,800? Obviously if you were one of the below average players in the tournament it would be a good play, but for arguments sake what should you do if you are one of the best players? Is it worth it? (You may in fact be 1 of the best players especially if you are a player who spends time creating SHAL sheets. You obviously spend a lot of time on your poker game). The best players often avoid large confrontations as Matasow discussed in interviews and Phil and Dan N. discussed in the final table streaming audio. Wouldn't it be better to wait and use your advantage over the other players in a better situation or are the blinds and antes so big here that it is now time to make this move?

[Double Eagle]

[ QUOTE ]
the blinds and antes so big here that it is now time to make this move

[/ QUOTE ]

[LearnedfromTV]

Somewhere in that section he emphasizes that T8 is roughly the weakest hand with which this move can be profitable, and that this doesn't necessarily mean you should make the move with T8. One of the things to realize is that your fold equity is linked to the frequency with which you make this move. That is, a large part of what makes the play profitable once or twice with a hand like T8 is the fact that you aren't making it every time you have T8 or better. If you are in a situation where you are likely to have five or six chances to push with T8 or better over the next two or three loops, it may be that you shouldn't push the most marginal of those hands, since you will get another chance with a better hand and aren't going to be able to get away with making the play all five or six of those times.

Rather than make the move simply because it has been folded to you and you have a hand that is marginally good enough to make the allin play, make the play when the situation is best (vs. the tightest blinds when you see another guy behind you preparing to fold, etc.). Also, consider how likely it is that you will be folded to again later. If the players in front of you are playing tighter than average, you are likely to get a better opportunity because they will fold to you again soon enough. I think his point in using T8 is that the hand is less important that the situation.

The other related example in HOH II is the run where you start with an M of 1 and push several hands in a short time. There you are so short stacked that the money you win when they fold to your push is really important and you are less worried about preserving a tight image. In the T8 example, where you are less desperate but still reasonably desperate, I think you have to choose your spot carefully, because pushing with T8 a couple times hurts your fold equity for later.

[A_PLUS]

[ QUOTE ]
In HOH II, Dan discusses creating a spreadsheet to determine if a hand is a good hand to go all in with in specific situations as well as the minimum hand for an all in play. He calculates the EV of the hand by analyzing opp calling preferences and thus what chance you have of them all folding and what would happen if they called you depending on what hand they have. I was wondering if Dan is wrong here. The example he uses is 10 8, you're in 5th position and he wants to know if you should fold or raise all-in. You have 90,000 with 3,000/6,000 blinds and only enough $ to last four more rounds of antes and blinds. There is 11,000 of dead money in the pot, but even though he has determined that the play is +EV, is it worth risking 90,000 of chips and 1s tourney life for 11,000 chips and an EV of about $1,800? Obviously if you were one of the below average players in the tournament it would be a good play, but for arguments sake what should you do if you are one of the best players? Is it worth it? (You may in fact be 1 of the best players especially if you are a player who spends time creating SHAL sheets. You obviously spend a lot of time on your poker game). The best players often avoid large confrontations as Matasow discussed in interviews and Phil and Dan N. discussed in the final table streaming audio. Wouldn't it be better to wait and use your advantage over the other players in a better situation or are the blinds and antes so big here that it is now time to make this move?

[/ QUOTE ]

1. Recognizing profitable situations when you are short stacked is one of the skills of great players

2. Great players dont like to risk there tourney life when the stacks are still deep. With an M of 4, there isnt any play other than pushing anyway.

3.) I have done a lot of work with open pushing spreadsheets. I dont think I am good enough to pass up small edges in a 100$ party poker tournament, let alone at the final table of a major event.