Should You Call With the Nut Low Draw On the Turn???

[PokerProdigy]

Many times when the turn arrives I am unsure whether or not I should call a bet to try and hit the nut low, usually I just make the call because the pot is (usually) fairly large. But lately, I have been playing the 6 max tables, so the pot is usually not as large, and I am wondering when I should call with my nut low draw and when I should fold it? In other words, if I only have the nut low draw (with no hopes at winning the high side of the pot) then how many bets/how much money should be in the pot in order for me to (correctly) call one bet? Another way of putting this is, what do the pot odds need to lay me on the turn in order for me correctly call one bet in hopes of hitting the nut low?

P.S. For the sake of argument, lets also assume that I don't have any counterfiet protection. However, it'd be nice to know what the pot odds need to be in both situations if you know them off hand.

[Mason Hellmuth]

My analysis follows--please correct me if I'm wrong.

With one card to come, there are 8 known cards and 44 unknown. With only the nut low draw (and no other low cards) in your hand, there are 16 cards that will make your low without counterfeiting you: 4 of each of 4 ranks. So with only the low to consider, the pot needs to offer 28:16 or 7:4.

However, when you win the low, you get only half the pot. If my understanding is right, this doubles the pot odds you need, to 7:2.

Of course, this ignores implied odds and the possibility of getting quartered. But I think it's a good starting point.

[Windmilla]

I think i did the math on this once..... i came to this conclusion, that you call most of the time, because you will make it like 43% of the time or something like that.... 50% if protected. so basically what it means is if there has been any raising or multiway action up to the point when you make your decision, you call. If it has not been raised at all and checked to this point then fold is correct

[muse21]

I think that O/8 is a game where it is too easy to only think about your own cards and not your opponents likely holdings.

To correctly answer this question every time, you would need to know how many opponents you have that are calling on the turn, what they play like, and thus their likely holdings.

The possibility of being quartered even when you hit wasn't even discussed in the other threads. Really, the only way to factor this into the decision is to analyze your opponents actions.

Nothing new here, I know. But this isn't just a math question.

[Windmilla]

ignoring the possibility of being quartered was said

[jgunnip]

i don't know the odds but i'd be more inclined to draw with four or more players in the pot. This way getting quartered is at least a break even proposition.

[Cooker]

I think your math is slightly flawed because you forgot that you only receive half your bet back as well. In a normal high only game your pot odds are Pot Size to Bet Needed to Call, but this assumes that when you hit you get your entire Bet Needed to Call back. In High-Low split games, you must subtract the halves that you don't get back from the half of the pot you do get in order for the math to be correct.

Lets assume you are not getting quatered and are heads up and will not have to call a BB on the end. Your odds of hitting as you stated are 28 to 16 or 7 to 4. To break even you need Pot Size/2 - 0.5BB to 1 BB to be equivalent to 7 to 4 odds. The - 0.5BB on the pot size is half of your 1 BB which you need returned to be made whole. Therefore, you need the pot to be 4.5 BB in order to call in this spot in order to be breaking dead even which is a bit better odds needed than 7 to 2 would have you think.

This can be extended to when you will have to call on the river when you hit. You still need Effective pot odds of 7 to 4. To break even you need (Pot Size + 1)/2 - 0.5 * (1+4/11) BB to 1 BB + 4/11BB to be equivalent to 7 to 4 odds. The extra 4/11 BB is the bet you will put in on the river on average. Making this equivalent to 7 to 4 odds gives a pot size of 113/22 BB or about 5.14 BB.

However, getting quartered will impact your decision much more than these factors. Knowing your opponents is crucial in determining this. Still, if the pot isn't around 5 BB then the fold should be routine, which is good to know.

[GooperMC]

I did the math once and came up with around 6:1 with no protection and 5:1 with protection. I don't remember the exact figures but I think it was around 5.6 which I rounded up to 6 for ease of use while playing. This math included only getting 1/2 your bet back and the possibility of getting 1/4ed. I can calculate it again if anyone wants (this time I think I will save it).

Also as a lot of the other posters said this 6:1 is only a starting number. It needs to be adjusted according the game / player / hand conditions.

[stud7champ]

Chance of getting a low is about 30% on last card. Less with counterfeiting.
Either way your mistake is playing the A2 hand with no low. You are exchaning 12 cents for each dollar as you will make a nut low about 1 in 4 times for half the pot