KQs, standard value betting or overplayed?

[cassady]

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in case BB is full of [censored]. If he really does have the goods, oh well, I still have outs.


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If BB is full of it, he may fold to your raise. If he has the set, he has more cards to improve his hand than you.

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Yeah, but I don't think this is so much of an issue. Only two of your outs are dirty (K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]). All other cards which give you your flush don't pair the board, and there's only one card to come. You'll know if you've improved to best hand, or not. It's not like you're open to redraws.

[cassady]

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I'll just comment on this one. It doesn't matter whether they know the numbers if they do the right thing for the wrong reason.

Your job is to get them to make mistakes when possible. If they call when it's correct to call (in this case, if a calling station cold calls two bets to his gutshot when the pot is big enough for it to be correct to do so), then they haven't made a mistake, even though they didn't know it. The play they make by nature turns out to be the correct play, and your raise hasn't made them make a mistake.

Yes, they may fold incorrectly to your "tactical raise". But if they're loose and passive, it's more likely that they'll just call anyway, correctly but without knowing it.

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What you're missing here is this:
a). calling one bet is correct.
b). calling two bets is correct.
but:
c). calling two bets is less correct for them than calling one bet.

Or put it another way. 1/10 times they'll win the extra bet your force, 9 in 10 times, you'll take an extra bet of theirs.

Just because them calling two bets is still +EV for them, it doesn't mean putting in that extra bet isn't +EV for you.