Long and heavy poker content

[Lost Wages]

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1) After 200K hands at Party 1/2 and 1/2 6 max, I made as much in rakeback as I did from playing the game.


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Then there is no doubt that you play poorly.

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2) Following the starting hand charts in SSHE will not make you a TAG (eagle or money bag in PT). At best, you will have a 20-23% VP$IP. In order to get that down, you need to very carfully select the situations in which you play particular types of hands and you find the right conditions come along pretty infrequently.


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Try using the tight games chart. But of course, as you have realized, the chart is only a guide.

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If you play too tight for your game you will be missing out on some profit opportunity. If you play too loose, you give up some of the profit you made from loosening up.


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It is much better to play too tight than too loose in a full game. Playing too tight costs very little, playing too loose costs a lot.

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3)A lot of the Advice in SSHE goes out the window as soon as your opponent has half a brain about odds and outs. This was a frequent critism of the book when it came out and I am moving into games where I find it to be true.

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I disagree and I am not aware of this "frequent criticism".

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4) the onine poker landscape is changing. The games are getting tighter, players are getting smarter, pots are getting smaller and win rate is dropping. I think this trend is true no matter where you are or what level you play at.

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People have been making this claim for years, it is simply not true. The games are as good as they have ever been.

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5) There is no 2+2er out there who has 900K in bankroll & 24 tables 30/60 and beats it for 9BB/100 hands.


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Agree but what's your point?

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Reading players is becoming more and more important and that is hard to do over the internet (yes I played B&M before I played on line).

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OK.

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The kind of attention needed to play on the required level cannot be successfully divided amoung four tables. You cannot play mechanically above the very lowest levels and expect to win very much.

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Well, it depends on what you call the lowest levels. Certainly 1/2 can be multitabled mechanically. Perhaps you misunderstand the object of multitabling. There is no doubt that yourBB/100 will decrease as you add tables but your BB/hr can still increase.

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3) Most long term players will tell you that you are likely to go broke at some point in the future no matter how good you think you are.

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Well, I don't know who you talked to but this is simply not true. Good players will maintain a sufficient bankroll and never go broke.

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I am trying to balance the effort I have to put forward with the potential reward, only, I don't know what that reward may be as those who have been there or are there right now don't want to say or are too embarrassed to say...The decision boils down to going back down in level to where I know I can make money, becoming a ten game rock or a 6 max specialist, switching to NL where I can make bets which give punishing odds to incorrect draws, becoming a MTT or SNG specialist


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Well, there is plenty of money to be made at limit ring games (either full or shorthanded) but of course you would need to play at a 5/10 or higher.

Lost Wages

[Exsubmariner]

Thank you Harv,
Of all the good replies here, I think yours was the most pertentent and certainly rang the truest. I appreciate you taking the time to reply so thoroughly. Posters like yourself are the reason I look to 2+2 as a source of guidance and I think you represent this community very well.
Thank you once again.
X

[Exsubmariner]

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Then there is no doubt that you play poorly.


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Thank you for you inspirational opinion.
Let me do some math. Let's assume a win rate of 1-2 BB/100 after 6 max and full game combined. That means one can expect a profit over 200K hands of $2K to $4K. It will take you some months to finish this goal playing 20 hours a week at 200 or so hands per hour on four tables. So that's 4K hands a week and 16 K a month. I regularly paid 2K+ per month in rake and with rakeback of 28% that averaged about $500 in rakeback per month. So, 200K divided by 16K is 12.5 Months. At $500/month I made 6K in rakeback. Trust me, it eclipsed what I made from the tables and if you played in the same games, it would eclipse what you could make as well because I think the best you could hope for is about 3BB/100 in those games.
I'm sorry, but I don't think your statement is grounded in hard mathematics.
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[brettbrettr]

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I am faced with a unique set of problems and I think there are probably a couple hundred people out there who are wearing the same shoes.

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Sorry, couldn't resist. Back to the post.

[donger]

Why not just figure it in rake paid per 100 hands? For instance, at 5/10 6max, according to my DBs (all 5 or more players seated), the average player pays about 2.3 BB/100 hands. Finding 28% of this, it's 0.65 BB/100.

I know the rake structure in 1/2 6max is worse, but I seriously doubt that the rakeback is over 1 BB/100.

Therefore, everyone is basing their "you can't play" statements on the fact that you have a fractional winrate in one of the softest games online.

[Exsubmariner]

With all due respect Donger,
Look at the party rake structure. At 1/2 it is double the % of the pots that it is on 2/4 or higher. My database numbers were that is was about 4BB/100 hands when you took the 6 max and full games and totaled it all. 28% of 4 BB/100 is 1.12 BB/100. Combine that with the really swingy nature of the 6 max games and not only is it possible, but also true. When I realized this, that's when I decided I needed to move up.
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[Harv72b]

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With all due respect Donger,
Look at the party rake structure. At 1/2 it is double the % of the pots that it is on 2/4 or higher. My database numbers were that is was about 4BB/100 hands when you took the 6 max and full games and totaled it all. 28% of 4 BB/100 is 1.12 BB/100. Combine that with the really swingy nature of the 6 max games and not only is it possible, but also true. When I realized this, that's when I decided I needed to move up.
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I think the point that other people are trying to make in this thread is that the Party 1/2 game, in particular the 6max tables, is quite possibly the softest game on the internet above the .25/.50 level. As I said before, there's no shame in "only" winning 1 BB/100 hands over 200k hands, but in the games you are playing, it probably indicates that you also have holes in your game which are preventing you from really beating up on the weak opposition. I suspect that one of them is bluffing too often, which I kind of addressed in my first post, but there are probably others. Posting hands on the proper forum from time to time will help do wonders in that regard, as will replying to others' posts.

I also think that it may be that you're a bit overconfident in playing the 1/2 games. Let's face it, a lot of the people we play against at this limit flat out suck at poker, and that fact is painfully obvious to anyone who has even skimmed through SSH or another decent poker book. It's very easy against those opponents to play too many hands from out of position, confident in your ability to outplay the opponent postflop. The problem with that scenario is that, when you're up against an opponent who will not fold ace high or better, you have to improve every single time in order to win the hand, and that's simply not going to happen. It gets even trickier when you're up against a LAG who won't allow you to see a cheap showdown with a mediocre holding like bottom pair or what have you. No matter how good a player you are, or how bad your opponents are (exception being when your opponents are weak/tight bad), you shouldn't be playing more than 30% of your hands in a 6max game. And even playing 30% should require something approaching expert status in postflop play. For a full ring table at 1/2, again, if you are very good postflop, you can probably get by with a VPIP around 22-23%; if you're only so-so or just above average, you should be aiming for 18%ish.

Aside from such obvious preflop numbers, there's a lot of money to lose postflop, too. You shouldn't be seeing a showdown every time you draw AK, even on 6max. Hell, you shouldn't even see 100% of showdowns with AA. Remember, even the donks catch a monster from time to time, and being dealt a premium hand does not automatically entitle you to whatever pot ends up being built.

I do agree to some point that you should take a stab at 2/4, assuming your bankroll allows, for the simple reason that you do need to move up to keep improving your game. However, I would caution you to be very critical of your own play as you do so, and don't be afraid to take some criticism here as you learn new tricks & break old habits.

[Hoi Polloi]

My $0.02:

1. Your post *is* long. It does *not* have much poker content. Belongs in the psych ward, IMO.

2. Party 2/4 has been fishier than 1/2 in the 9 months or so that I've been playing and the rake is not as harsh.

3. Be RELENTLESS about table selection. No reason to sit at a table with more than 2 players playing 1 in 10 to 1 in 6 of their hands. No reason to sit at a table with less than 3 players playing 1 in 3 of their hands or more. Just no reason for it unless you're in the middle of writing a long 2+2 post about the sorry state of online poker and can't be bothered. I'm having the best month of my distinguished career and it is mostly due, I believe, to much improved table selection habits. Key word: RELENTLESS. I'm also flopping a set everytime I have 99--and it only cost me my soul.

4. Datamine yourself in PT. What starting hands are you loosing money on? Why?

5. Don't care what happens; do what needs to be done.

6. Don't post snark unless it's funny or you're sfer. And don't whine, for god's sake, it's really annoying. Most of us come here to show off and learn something and we can't tell the difference most of the time. We don't come here to be reminded that if it weren't for rakeback our girlfriends would dump us. And yet in spite of all these mistakes you had going against you, you end up getting a lot of good advice in this thread. It's like a suck out on 5th street. Nice hand.

7. Did I mention that I don't post to this forum anymore.

8. I need a drink.

[belloc]

Great post, Harv, especially the stuff on bankroll management, enjoyment of the game, and variation of play. Every strictly holdem player should play a session of 7stud from time to time; it really is refreshing and fun.

[jordanx]

Okay, so your post is long and makes a lot of -- many debatable -- statements but it lacks a point.

I suspect you are wondering how to crush the 1/2 game for 5 bb/hour or are thinking that online poker sucks and is unbeatable. Maybe something in the middle.

Poker is hard. As you attempt to master the game and gain knowledge and experience, you reach several plateaus. At each point, you are better than some players but worse than others, however, you don't realize what you need to improve or how to do so.

You will stay at a particular plateau until you read something or realize something that will start your ascention to the next level. Maybe it's a tool like the check raise or maybe it's a concept like waiting to raise on the turn to protect your hand. But then you will incorporate new strategy, branch off your new knowledge and eventually reach the next level.

If you get to a point where you feel you are at the top level, you will not continue to improve.

There is no top level.

There is also no simple anwer for your query, the actual answer is: Read more, post more, learn more, theorize more, run simulations. And while this may seem like a cop out or blow off, the fact is: Noone can know how you need to improve your game short of shadowing you and noone is interested in that task.