Micro Limit Math Thread

[glean]

That would be true if you were all in. But since your not I would look at each street seperately when I bet. People folding, raising etc may change befor I get to the river, so each street is its own little adventure in my mind. Not sure that this is correct for value betting, but I belive it is. The same as I wouldn't wan't to call with the odds to the river when on the turn, due to the possibility of a bet on 5th.

[Dave G.]

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OK chance of making your flush by the river, when you have your flush draw on the flop with 2 cards to come. (The maths is 9/47 + (38/47 * 9/46) or approx. 20% + (80% * 20%) = approx. 35% = approx. 3:1 odds.

So what does this all mean? I find it easiest to look at this in terms of odds.

If you have a flush draw on the flop your odds of making your flush by the river is ~ 3:1. That means for each bet you put in the pot you would like at least 3 other players to call so that you will be getting value for your bet.

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This is incorrect. Your chances of completing your flush from the flop by the river in terms of odds are about 1.8:1.

P(flush) = 1 - (38/47 * 37/46) = 0.349676. (I think this form of the equation is much easier to understand too. This is the chance of anything happening minus the chance of your flush NOT coming in, which is therefore the chance of your flush coming in.)

To convert this into odds form, you do 1/P(flush) - 1 = 1.85979. You aren't subtracting the 1 at the end, which you need to do in order to convert a probability into odds format.

So you only need two callers on the flop for your bets / raises to be gaining value. From turn to river, you need 5 players calling your bets and raises for these to be for value, because your odds are about 4.111:1. 4 opponents is insufficient.

[Fantam]

Thankyou for the correction.

I was trying to simplify the equations and made a mistake with the flop in expressing the odds required as 3:1 instead of as 2:1.

So you would only need at least 2 callers on the flop to bet a flush draw for value.

I hope that overall the explanation made sense to most viewers. Sorry for the inadvertent error.