sabermetrics

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Just wondering if anyone makes extensive use of sabermetrics in voting baseball? I've been getting into sabermetrics and some of this stuff seems like it would be pretty useful in betting baseball (which I don't currently do).

Just curious.

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I too have a copy of baseball prospectus and I subscribe to the site. I haven't put too much effort into it, but I suspect that sabermetrics could be very valuable in baseball betting. I need to put more work into it. It seems obvious to me that predictive statistics, stats designed to find value where traditional stats fail, would help a lot with gambling. People must be using them already to bet...it seems like a crime to waste all of that brainpower on fantasy baseball! [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] Of course with Moneyball and everything they are used in scouting, etc.

There must be are people out there using extensively them for betting. One of the authors of baseball prospectus posts here, I wonder if he bets...They also have an older article on their site that details a guy visiting Las Vegas and betting on some season win props.

This is a very interesting topic, good post. This forum may not have a lot of traffic, but there's still high quality discussion.

[ftball0000]

If you have this year's prospectus, check out the essay section for the essay on win expectation.

I found it pretty interesting

[DougOzzzz]

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If you have this year's prospectus, check out the essay section for the essay on win expectation.

I found it pretty interesting

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I used that to make a spreadsheet that calculated run distributions given a teams mean runs scored (to help for betting on totals). I was told here that I was stupid for doing so. Oh well...

Anyways, I think "sabermetrics" can and should be used for baseball betting. I used to have a plan to do something really big with it, but I got lazy.

Easiest possible application of sabermetrics - learn to evaluate pitchers better. Don't be fooled by a low ERA. All analysis has shown that a pitcher's opposing BABIP (batting average for balls in page) is mostly luck, and that K rate, BB rate, and HR rate are far more important in predicting future success. In other words, don't think for a minute that Kenny Rogers is one of the top 10 pitchers in the game.

[mrbaseball]

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don't think for a minute that Kenny Rogers is one of the top 10 pitchers in the game.

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I don't. I also don't think he is a bum or an easy fade (although he does appear to be a jerkoff). He is however well above average for a very long period of time. 187-127 (.595) over 16 seasons with a 4.20 ERA primarily in the AL in the steriod era which is pretty damn respectable. He won't be going to Cooperstown but he shouldn't be much a dog (if a dog at all) to practically any AL team or opposing starter. The talent gap isn't significant enough to make him (and his powerful Ranger team) much of a dog to anyone. And I think this is the point that sabermetricians will miss.

We argued early in the season on the Buehrle/Santana matchup. And yeah your guy Santana won that one but do you still see that significant talent gap? Santana is still blowing everyone away when it come to K's but how come he isn't dominating the league? And do you really wanna lay all the juice you typically have to lay with him? I know I don't [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] He is a slight positive to the moneyline at +1.55 units had you bet hime every game this season. I'm hoping that changes tonight as I like the value on the Tigers tonight to even things up for him. Is he better than Johnson? Yeah! But they do have identical (meaningless) ERA's and Johnson is home at a nice price where he pitchs very effectively. How big can the actual talent gap be when they both have the same era? Big enough for Santana to roll into Detroit and beat the team who has gone 7-3 with Johnson and his 1.95 home era over 60% of the time like the line says? 60% is a lot, especially on the road against a guy who dominates at home.

I need to learn more about sabermetrics I will admit but it seems dangerous to me as it seems it overinflates talent differences which in reality aren't all that different.

[Paluka]

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Just wondering if anyone makes extensive use of sabermetrics in voting baseball? I've been getting into sabermetrics and some of this stuff seems like it would be pretty useful in betting baseball (which I don't currently do).

Just curious.

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I've used sabermetric type sources for years now and done very well betting wins futures.

[eternalnewbie]

That's ironic because that was exactly the article that I read when I started thinking about using this type of research to bet baseball.

2 other quick points:

1) I think I heard somewhere that apart from the BP website there is also a scholarly journal devoted to sabermetrics. Has anyone checked this out to see if it has anything useful betting wise?

2) Some of you may be interested in www.footballoutsiders.com. The people there are trying to apply the same approach to football. My opinion (although I haven't had a chance to look at this in as much detail) is that this information wouldn't be as useful. I have serious doubts that we will ever be able to derive objective knowledge about football on the individual player level. But still, what they are trying to do is interesting.

[winker]

Well after the A's dealt Hudson and Mulder they were going off at like 12-1 odds. If I had any money, I would have laid some on them.

I know sabermetrics nearly inside and out. It can be of use in some situations, primarily when you have 'no-name' starting pitchers. Many of the things that break a game one way or the other are either fluke or 'match-up' based.

If you want a decent 'picker' check out www.aarongleeman.com. He is very well versed in sabermetrics and makes one or 2 daily picks. Pick for today...

HOU (Oswalt) -130 over Washington (Loaiza)
SD (Peavy) -140 over NYM (Ishii)

The Mets won 12-0, but this guy is usually pretty good. He is 78-66 and up $1125 on a theorhetical $100 bet each time.

My picks for today...

BOS (Clement) +120 over CWS (Buehrle)
MIN (Santana) -150 over DET (Johson)
NYY (Johnson) -120 over ANA (Colon)

I think the Minnesota one is the best bet. Johson is not near the pitcher that the Twins have faced recently and Santana is better than -150 against this schlub.

[mrbaseball]

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Santana is better than -150 against this schlub

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Uh huh. Better than -150 against a guy who's team is 7-3 in his home starts where he carries a 1.95 era? I'll admit Santana is better. I have trouble with the -150 part. Baseball betting is all about price. Twins current lineup has a .805 OPS against Johnson. Tigers current lineup has a .779 OPS against Santana. So yeah Santana has been a little less than 1% more effective. Then again he's on the road where Johnson has been dominant so I'm not sure that 1% effectiveness edge is enough to cover a line he has to beat 60% of the time to break even.

[mrbaseball]

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Well after the A's dealt Hudson and Mulder they were going off at like 12-1 odds. If I had any money, I would have laid some on them

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They are 25-1 right now for the AL pennant which I actually think is decent as they are coming on strong. But if you keep laying wood on overpriced "names" on the road your no money situation is understandable.

[winker]

The A's are a young team and I don't think that translates particularily well to the post season. Harden, Haren and Zito can be great, but you still gotta push 2-4 runs across against the other teams ace. 25-1 ain't bad though. Who knows what Beane has up his sleeze for the trading deadline.

Does Bodog let you cover or 'sell' a bet. Can I bet 25-1 now and then cover it later when they are (either in the playoffs or very close to the wildcard) and going off at 12-1? That would be sweet.