WSOP - XRay Vision Winning Chances - Page 5

RocketManJames · #41 07-21-2005, 01:02 AM

Ya, I think that when I first thought about this question, I thought about it incorrectly. After reading various arguments, I now believe that winning chances are probably in the 95+% range. But, it is clearly not 100%.

I do feel that the most perceptive players will notice that you fold too often to all-ins on the flop and turn, and might try their best to use that against you. But, I guess this would only pose a problem if it were early on, and you hadn't yet built up a huge 'safe' stack.

-RMJ

ThinkQuick · #42 07-21-2005, 02:53 AM

I realllly like this thread. I daydream this stuff.
But you have to consider the TV factor. People at home, as well as officials will see your cards and you musn't reveal that you have a retardedly good read on every player every time. This probably decreases your win % even more.

cobalt · #43 07-21-2005, 03:12 AM

It is 100% win rate (for a tournament). Not 100% per hand though.

The trick is that you need to make it look believable. Of course people will start wondering what's going on if you *always* make the right play. Make mistakes in varying sizes, but because of your x-ray vision abilities, you will be able to win more chips than you lose.

Although reading other people becomes extremely easy with the x-ray vision, pretending that you are just a normal person who makes good reads is the tricky part.

For example, you double up on the first hand to 3000 from 1500. Then a few hands later, you dump 600 by *making a bad call*. You're still up 900 and have given the image that you make mistake. Proceed to bluff a few pots and win a few, you'll have the whole table soon that way. As long as you don't seem too predictable in your losses, then you won't have a problem.

Shandrax · #44 07-21-2005, 03:15 AM

The important question is: How would x-ray vision change your strategy?

Would you go all-in only if your opponent is drawing dead? If not then you would be vulnerable to bad beats. On the other side, how often will you get called by an opponent who is drawing dead?

Basically you have to play hands where you are the favorite but where the opponent has outs. If you do that you will suffer a bad beat every once in a while. If you face opponents with a similar chip-stack you might even lose it all to a bad beat on the river.

It seems to me that even a player with x-ray vision would have chances less than 1% to win against 6000+ players.

You could also ask what would happen if a player gets aces every single hand. Even he may lose it all, although I would rate his chances considerably higher, because he would probably have the chip-stack to compensate for the occasional bad beat.

Sephus · #45 07-21-2005, 05:54 AM

3% what a joke. my chances would be about as close to 100% as can be.

you'd have to be an idiot to not win.

Huckle · #46 07-21-2005, 06:56 AM

Seeing everyone else's cards is worth a lot more than getting pocket aces every round. I really believe that someone who's good enough to just know about these forums should be more than 95% to win. Just call down to the river, push if you have the best hand, fold if you don't.

It would be like an insurance against ever playing into a better hand, just that would be enough to win a lot.

Playing against another player with open cards would probably take forever though. The only way to win would be to play a worse hand and win (doesn't work if you can see the community cards as well) or just play long enough for the blinds to get up to your entire stack so you have to play.

Dan Mezick · #47 07-21-2005, 08:21 AM

I'm disappointed David has not responded to this thread. The whole Fundamental Theorem in TTOP is based on this premise.

Thanks for posting this question.

Dan Mezick · #48 07-21-2005, 08:29 AM

Seeing opponents cards will help the best players and destablize the game of lesser players.

Any good player needs to

a. Be aware of theory

b. Know what to do based on theory (while making some very fine-granined situational adjustments when appropriate)

c. Be able to execute correctly (as opposed to merely knowing what to do)

Many so-called routine poker decisions are actually very complicated. Seeing the cards of all opponents and using all that info is actually a larger computational problem than not seeing hole cards.

I believe the original poster is correct here is saying that Sklanky and his peers would make the most of the opportunity (because they are experts, especially accomplished in #3 above) while lesser players might actually make alot of very real mistakes with the hole card info available to them.

bugstud · #49 07-21-2005, 08:53 AM

as other have said, as long as you can get to the river, and not get sucked out by then too often early, you will be in very good shape. The only problem is if people start pushing preflop and on the flop against you where you either bleed chips or risk them without a lock.

Salva135 · #50 07-21-2005, 12:20 PM

The only factor making this less than 100% is whether or not you can see the flop, turn and river. If you can see all of the cards to come, then you are 100% to win every time, unless you're an absolutely moron. This isn't even debatable.

If you can't see what cards are going to come, then there's no way it's even near 100%. People keep talking about only putting chips at risk with all-in pushes or calls when they know their opponents are drawing dead, but this is RARELY the case. You will almost certainly (nay, you will certainly) be put in situations time after time when you will have the chance to commit large portions of your stack when you're a clear-cut, but not absolute, favorite.

If you're in the late stages of the tournament, most decisions are made pre-flop, so you won't have the luxury of waiting until your opponent is drawing dead, and thus you will HAVE to put chips at risk. If someone with a sizeable amount of chips pushes pre-flop with KK and you have AA, are you going to fold? You would be losing too much EV by folding in all of these situations, so naturally you would have to call -- but then, of course, he could hit his K. There will be enough of these decisions in navigating a large tourney field that you would constantly be at risk of busting out, even if you managed to build up a monstrous stack by stealing blinds, calling bluffs, etc.

You have an excellent chance of making it deep into the tourney, but eventually you're going to have to put chips at risk, it's completely unavoidable. Your chances of winning of course depend on the size of the field, but at this year's WSOP main event, it has to be fairly small given the number of coin flip situations you need to get through. Anyone who thinks it's 100% or even close is insane.