Shortstacked near the bubble

ZootMurph · #1 07-20-2005, 12:25 PM

Live tournament. Blinds 1000/2000 with 200 ante. I have 6600 chips before posting BB and ante. 18 players paid, about 23 left. 8 handed. Player in CO, who is VERY tight, pushes about 25k. Button, who is loose, says "I know I'm behind, but I have to play this hand, so it's all or nothing for me.", and calls with his 17k. I call in the dark.

Can anyone fold here? No matter how good the odds, I KNOW I'm way behind and looking for a miracle.

Well, my cards were live, but didn't come through. Initial all in with J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], caller A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and I had Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. Flop shows two 9s and no hearts and I'm done. Again, it didn't matter what my cards were, I felt I had to call... or did I?

TheTimeIsUp · #2 07-20-2005, 12:50 PM

With 1/3 of your stack in, and you aren't too close to the money, you have to call with any two here.

DonT77 · #3 07-20-2005, 12:58 PM

Actually you were about a 4:1 dog and you are only getting 2.81 on your call (calling 4400 to win 12400). So calling here was -cEV (and neither player had AK, AQ or QQ-AA!).

However, considering your M would be about 1 after this hand, I'm not sure you can fold here considering you might not get a better chance to triple-up.

How many players had <6000 chips and how was the payout structure? This might help me to decide how much I want to gamble. If there were a bunch of players that had less chips than I did, and if the payout structure was really flat - I'd probably look more towards folding. (admittedly this would be a rare case)

Personally, I might fold here and hope to catch a multi-way pot next hand in an unraised pot out of the SB (or stop & go), or raise All-In from LP the first time it is checked around to me. Even with a small M I'd rather be the pusher than the caller.

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1094928
pokenum -h js jc - ah 9h - qh 7h
Holdem Hi: 1370754 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Js Jc 688500 50.23 678271 49.48 3983 0.29 0.503
Ah 9h 387215 28.25 979556 71.46 3983 0.29 0.283
Qh 7h 291056 21.23 1075715 78.48 3983 0.29 0.213