flop decision

[Amerretto]

Ok, I can see the benefits of raising, but I am getting totally confused now. Do you want this to go heads up with the SB? Does it matter, is that the conclusion?

If you raise and get callers calling 2 cold, then thats ok because we have a large number of outs and have pot equity. If we get it to heads up, then thats fine because we have what possibly could be the best hand, with a number of outs.

In this hand I would want the pot to get as big as possible, even if my hand isn't good at the moment I have draws to hit. Question is can I get more bets by the showdown by raising or going for overcalls, and popping them on the Turn. I think overcalls. I think I am missing something here [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img] someone turn me from my overly weak approach....

[Henke]

Ok, I can see the benefits of raising, but I am getting totally confused now. Do you want this to go heads up with the SB? Does it matter, is that the conclusion?

Well, we gain some ways of winning the hand if we get it heads up with the SB, and since the pot is big, this is goot! But also, if the callers call two cold, we make more money than by calling.

If you raise and get callers calling 2 cold, then thats ok because we have a large number of outs and have pot equity. If we get it to heads up, then thats fine because we have what possibly could be the best hand, with a number of outs.

Yup, and as I stated above, we might have gained some more ways of winning.

In this hand I would want the pot to get as big as possible, even if my hand isn't good at the moment I have draws to hit.

Yes.

Question is can I get more bets by the showdown by raising or going for overcalls, and popping them on the Turn.

I hope you're talking about popping them on the turn if you hit your hand, otherwise it's quite horrible! If you're trying to pump a draw, better make sure to do it on the flop, because on the turn your chances of making your hand has usually about halved, which means you would need about 22 outs by the turn if you're going to pump the draw there (probably even more because you can no longer hope for a free card).

But if your question is regarding how to extract the most if you do hit your hand, then the answer depends on what hands your opponents might be drawing to. If someone has bottom pair with A kicker, you're not going to extract alot more by keeping him in (but you wouln't mind that much because he only has 2 outs). If someone else is on a lower flushdraw, you can start pumping right away because they aren't going anywhere. If there's someone with Ax, where x is a higher kicker than yours, you probably prefer that they fold, espesially if their kicker is a [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].

I think overcalls. I think I am missing something here someone turn me from my overly weak approach....

If you have nothing else but a draw, and that draw isn't huge, and the pot is small, you certainly prefer overcalls. But when the pot is big, you have a strong draw that has a slight (perhaps only 5%) chance of winning a showdown UI raising is usually better.

[Aaron W.]

[ QUOTE ]
Look at it this way:
If we assume we'll need at least two pair to win here, the EV of raising* vs. nr of opponents is .41*n2-.59*2.

Callers EV
1 -.36
2 .46
3 1.28
4 2.10

The ev for calling in the same situation is .41*n-.59, which becomes:

Callers EV
1 -0.18
2 0.23
3 0.64
4 1.05

*I'm only counting the EV of "new money" here, to simplify things, ie those going into the pot on the flop.

As we see here, it's only when there's only one caller that we make less money by raising than by calling. If we add all the dead money that might be ours if we get it heads up, the decision is a no brainer!

[/ QUOTE ]

Compare two likely scenarios:

1) You raise, get one cold-caller, and PFR calls. By your calculations, EV = .43

2) You call, get two players to call behind you. By your calcluations, EV = .64

Obviously, comparing same number of players, a raise will be better because we know that hero has an equity edge against just two players. A raise decreases the chances of getting a caller in behind you, whereas calling increases it. You can't compare them in the absence of the consideration of what raising does. The answer here still seems to be to just call.

I want to repeat this last part over and over again. If hero had top pair, it's an easy raise, because he has *HUGE* equity when he has the best hand, and it can only go up when players fold. In this hand, hero's hand is not worth protecting.

[Aaron W.]

[ QUOTE ]
Having him fold his hand would mean that he's playing correctly, and by FTOP you don't win as much as you could have won had he played differently.

True, but you're forgetting that it's multiway. What if the raiser has AQ and you're folding someone behind you with 99? Then he's surely making a mistake according to FTOP, and a much larger one indeed than raising with an 11 out draw! Also, hands like T9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] will have a hard time calling a raise here, but you surely don't want them around.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're parlaying two unlikely situations, so the effect has become minimal. If there were a reasonable chance hero was ahead of PFR at this point, then a raise would be good to knock out hands that are drawing against him (or are currently ahead of him). It's very likely the case that hero is chasing, so we don't care that 99 is ahead of us, because AK or JJ is ahead of us too, and we're both chasing him.

It comes back to Hero most likely not being ahead right now. This is the overriding theme in the decision-making process. I don't care that T9 hangs around and catches a pair of tens. I'm already behind some sort of pocket pair or K-hand.

[ QUOTE ]
However, people have a tougher time laying down pocket pairs, so you're still going to get called down by hands that are leading you, like QQ-JJ. So you get called down by better hands and worse hands folds. That's not so helpful.

If worse hands folds, it's not bad when the pot is big. If better hands call, it's not bad with a huge draw. Also, if the pot still is multiway by the turn, you can opt to take a free card. If it's heads up, you might try to push him of a holding like TT (it won't cost you that much since you have many outs).

[/ QUOTE ]

You can't take a free card multiway, you're not in position. Worse hands folding is not bad, but since a better hand is in the pot with you, you gain much by investing the money to drive out the worse hands. In almost every case, you are drawing to clean outs. So you would rather everyone draw to their second place hands.

[ QUOTE ]
The argument is not whether raising is profitable. I'm sure that it is. The argument is about which play is more profitable.
...
A raise here is strictly for value. And the value you get out of it is very small. Had there been a couple callers trapped in the middle, raising becomes much more profitable.

See my other post above with some calculations. Also, it doesn't really matter if there are callers trapped in between, because if they call they still contribute money. With a monster you would prefer to have callers trapped, and when the pot is small. But I say that in this situation, you prefer to be able to make them call two!

[/ QUOTE ]

See my response to your calculations directly.

[Era]

Hmm, interesting. Im surprised by the results of the calculations. Then again, if this isnt the situation to get overcalls then *what* is?

[Aaron W.]

[ QUOTE ]
Ok... I'll revise it a bit:

AA - 6 ways - 11 outs (9 flush, 2x8)
KK - 3 ways - 9 outs (flush only)
QQ - 6 ways - 14 outs (9 flush, 2x8, 3xA)
JJ - 6 ways - 14 outs (9 flush, 2x8, 3xA)
AK - 9 ways - 11 outs (9 flush, 2x8)
AQ - 6 ways - Ahead

36 total occurances

(6/36)*11 + (3/36)*9 + (6/36)*14 + (6/36)*14 + (9/36)*11 = 10 outs when we're behind

We're behind 83.3% of the time and ahead 16.7% of the time.

Sooo... hmm. Ok, I have no idea what should be done next. But if we're behind here, we have 10 outs. That pretty much says that all we can really count on is the flush. If that's the case, raising seems like not such a good idea.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're just a little bit off now. I'll finish off the calculation for you.

When you're behind (32 hands)...

(6/32)*11 + (3/32)*9 + (6/32)*14 + (6/32)*14 + (9/32)*11 = 11.25 outs

(By the way, this is actually smaller than what I had estimated. I had estimated this would be around 12.)

Just for fun, I want to estimate the equity here and compare it to kapw's pokerstoving (a new verb).

With 11.25 outs, how often do you make your hand by the river?

prob = 1 - prob(missing twice)
= 1 - (35.75/47)(34.75/46)
= 42.5%

When you are ahead of villain's AQ, what are the chances he catches you? He has 2.25 outs (when he has a Q, it's 3 outs, when he doesn't, it's 2). What are the chances he makes his hand?

prob = 1 - (44.75/47)(43.75/46)
= 9.4%

(This number is an overestimate, since he might hit his draw and you still outdraw him with a flush.)

So 83.3% of the time, we win 42.5% of the time and 16.7% of the time we win 90.6% of the time.

Equity = .833*.425 + .167*.906
= .354 + .151
= .505

So we've got a little better than 50.5% equity.

[ QUOTE ]
Hand 1: 52.9432 % [ 00.53 00.00 ] { Ac8c }
Hand 2: 47.0568 % [ 00.47 00.00 ] { AA-JJ, AKo-AQo }

[/ QUOTE ]

Not bad, eh? If you wanted to get a little closer, compute how often he gets a queen and you get a flush:

It can come in either order, so we multiply the answer by two.

2 * prob(queen) * prob(Heart) = 2*(2/47)*(9/46) = 1.7%.

This is still a little off because we haven't brought back the distinction of villain holding the queen of hearts. But it's now within .3%, which is good enough.