Two respected posters disagree

[TheWorstPlayer]

Doesnt matter what comes on the turn, you are obviously committing yourself by raising the flop. But the point is to make sure you keep in hands that are drawing near dead even at the expense of potentially letting someone in somewhat cheaply with a draw. By raising small, you are betting that either someone doesn't have the flush draw, or if they do, this time will be one of the 3/4 of the time that it doesn't hit on the turn. In exchange for that, you make it more likely to keep made hands in that you for sure want to stay in. Pushing here is a big raise. There is a good chance weaker made hands will fold. It is not worth taking that risk to protect against a draw three handed.

[TrailofTears]

Raise to 40 = 15+40+40+40=135. Your turn bet of ~50 gives the flush draw odds of 50 to win at least 235, which is ~4.6:1. The flush needs 42/7= ~6:1 to call, which is slightly incorrect, even if the other player comes along, which brings the odds from 235:50 to 285:50, or 5.7:1. Close, but still incorrect.

Either way you aren't giving correct odds to the other players.

This may be my first math post ever, so I'm sorry if I am incorrect here. I guess I wanted to work it out to see if the tiny raise would allow correct odds for the flush draw on the turn, but it doesn't.

I suppose that this is empirical evidence that the raise to 40 is better, but I don't think the push is terrible by any means. We do, however, look for the optimal line.

-T

[Wayfare]

[ QUOTE ]
Raise to 40 = 15+40+40+40=135. Your turn bet of ~50 gives the flush draw odds of 50 to win at least 235, which is ~4.6:1. The flush needs 42/7= ~6:1 to call, which is slightly incorrect, even if the other player comes along, which brings the odds from 235:50 to 285:50, or 5.7:1. Close, but still incorrect.

Either way you aren't giving correct odds to the other players.

This may be my first math post ever, so I'm sorry if I am incorrect here. I guess I wanted to work it out to see if the tiny raise would allow correct odds for the flush draw on the turn, but it doesn't.

I suppose that this is empirical evidence that the raise to 40 is better, but I don't think the push is terrible by any means. We do, however, look for the optimal line.

-T

[/ QUOTE ]

You are also treating the problem as if there are no dead money considerations AND there is a flush draw out there, which is the worst (and probably the least likely) of the scenerios.

[TrailofTears]

[ QUOTE ]
You are also treating the problem as if there are no dead money considerations AND there is a flush draw out there, which is the worst (and probably the least likely) of the scenerios.

[/ QUOTE ]

I never intended for my post to imply that I had forgotten about the dead money.

[DrPublo]

[ QUOTE ]
Raise to 40 = 15+40+40+40=135. Your turn bet of ~50 gives the flush draw odds of 50 to win at least 235, which is ~4.6:1. The flush needs 42/7= ~6:1 to call, which is slightly incorrect, even if the other player comes along, which brings the odds from 235:50 to 285:50, or 5.7:1. Close, but still incorrect.

Either way you aren't giving correct odds to the other players.

This may be my first math post ever, so I'm sorry if I am incorrect here. I guess I wanted to work it out to see if the tiny raise would allow correct odds for the flush draw on the turn, but it doesn't.

I suppose that this is empirical evidence that the raise to 40 is better, but I don't think the push is terrible by any means. We do, however, look for the optimal line.

-T

[/ QUOTE ]

This analysis neglects the times the turn completes the flush and I'm faced with a push in front of me. Then I'm getting 185:50 (assuming BB, who's most likely to have the draw, pushes after an SB check) to fill, which doesn't give ME odds to draw. And yet I'm not folding a set in a monster pot after getting 1/2 my stack in on the flop.

The Doc

The Doc

[TrailofTears]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Raise to 40 = 15+40+40+40=135. Your turn bet of ~50 gives the flush draw odds of 50 to win at least 235, which is ~4.6:1. The flush needs 42/7= ~6:1 to call, which is slightly incorrect, even if the other player comes along, which brings the odds from 235:50 to 285:50, or 5.7:1. Close, but still incorrect.

Either way you aren't giving correct odds to the other players.

This may be my first math post ever, so I'm sorry if I am incorrect here. I guess I wanted to work it out to see if the tiny raise would allow correct odds for the flush draw on the turn, but it doesn't.

I suppose that this is empirical evidence that the raise to 40 is better, but I don't think the push is terrible by any means. We do, however, look for the optimal line.

-T

[/ QUOTE ]

This analysis neglects the times the turn completes the flush and I'm faced with a push in front of me. Then I'm getting 185:50 (assuming BB, who's most likely to have the draw, pushes after an SB check) to fill, which doesn't give ME odds to draw. And yet I'm not folding a set in a monster pot after getting 1/2 my stack in on the flop.

The Doc

The Doc

[/ QUOTE ]

How do you get 185:50? If the pot is 135 after the flop, BB pushes (essentially) for 50, you are calling 50 to win 235, which is almost 5:1, what you need to redraw with your ten outs, no?

-T

[DrPublo]

[ QUOTE ]
How do you get 185:50? If the pot is 135 after the flop, BB pushes (essentially) for 50, you are calling 50 to win 235, which is almost 5:1, what you need to redraw with your eleven outs, no?

[/ QUOTE ]

First, its 10 outs to fill or better. 3 Qs, 3 8s, 3 of the flush-making card, and one deuce.

Secondly, you're doing the pot odds wrong. I'm calling 50 to win 185, not 235 (which includes my 50 call). Lets say I"m 4:1 against, which is roughly right.

I lose $50 4 times, for a net of -$200.
I win $185 once, for a net of $185.

Sum = -$15, averaged over 5 runs is a net of -$3/call if I call the turn getting 185:50.

The Doc

[TrailofTears]

I can't even do math after being up for 48 straight hours. Work is hell these days. Sorry Doc.

EDIT: I shouldn't have done my first math post tonight. I'll try this again tomorrow. Off to hit the hay like the donkey that I am.

[teamdonkey]

If a push only folds hands you want in and gets called by hands that beat you, and a raise gives both players correct odds to call, then why do either?

There's always some value in deception. If you're the SB with AQ here, and you see the button just call, what do you put him on?

A good decision should be much easier to make on the turn with the pot still small enough that you can get away from it.

[srm80]

with the raise, one player would be drawing virtually dead unless they had a higher set which isn't a likely situation, and wayfare pointed out that the draw would not be getting correct odds to call and would be making a mistake by staying in.