TPTK on the flop

[DownUnder]

MP1 has seemed largely unremarkable to date - not overly loose or aggressive. MP3 is a loose passive chump.

Hero is on the button with A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Party Poker 1/2 (10 handed)

3 folds, <font color="red"> </font> MP1 raises <font color="red"> </font> , fold, MP3 calls, fold, <font color="red"> </font> Hero 3-bets <font color="red"> </font> , blinds fold, <font color="red"> </font> MP1 caps <font color="red"> </font> , MP3 calls, Hero calls

Flop (3 players, 13.5 SB) K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 10 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

MP1 bets, MP3 folds, Hero.....

As I said, MP1 hasn't been overly aggro to date so his range of capping hands isn't going to be that high. I've got two outs to beat AA and four to chop, Four gutshot outs to beat KK and QQ, and chopping with AK. I'm not sure villain would cap here that often with JJ or AQ.

What's my line?

DU

[JKDStudent]

I want to say put in a raise. If you get 3-bet, call down if you don't improve with a K or J. If you can, check behind on the turn. Get to showdown as cheaply as possible.

However, I don't think that's necessarily correct. The only pf capping hand you're ahead of is QQ. If that's the case, and you put in a raise here, villain is slowing down a lot, maybe even folding. Anything else, a raise is spewing. So the correct thing to do is probably call down, only raising if you see a K or J.

[aK13]

call call call.

[Aaron W.]

[ QUOTE ]
MP1 has seemed largely unremarkable to date - not overly loose or aggressive. MP3 is a loose passive chump.

Hero is on the button with A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Party Poker 1/2 (10 handed)

3 folds, <font color="red"> </font> MP1 raises <font color="red"> </font> , fold, MP3 calls, fold, <font color="red"> </font> Hero 3-bets <font color="red"> </font> , blinds fold, <font color="red"> </font> MP1 caps <font color="red"> </font> , MP3 calls, Hero calls

Flop (3 players, 13.5 SB) K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 10 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

MP1 bets, MP3 folds, Hero.....

As I said, MP1 hasn't been overly aggro to date so his range of capping hands isn't going to be that high. I've got two outs to beat AA and four to chop, Four gutshot outs to beat KK and QQ, and chopping with AK. I'm not sure villain would cap here that often with JJ or AQ.

What's my line?

DU

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a perfect hand reading/equity computing exercise. For the 5 SB it costs to get to the showdown, is it worth calling down based on villain's expected range of hands?

I would include JJ and AQs because capping those preflop isn't "overly aggro".

[DownUnder]

OK, I'm going to try this as a practice exercise. Apologies in advance for the long-winded post, but my math probably needs a bit of work.

I will accept Aaron's view of villain's range of capping hands as AA-JJ, AK, AQs
For simplicity I'm going to assume that I call down all the way, irrespective of what falls.

Villain can hold:
AA 3 ways
KK 1 way
QQ 3 ways
JJ 6 ways
AK 6 ways
AQs 2 ways

21 possible hands

Hands that I'm ahead of:
JJ 6/21 ways (28.5%) has 8 outs to beat me (8/47 + 8/46). I will stay ahead 28.5% * 65.6% = 18.7% of the time
AQs 2/21 ways (9.5%) has 2 outs to beat me (2/47 * 2/46). I will stay ahead 9.5% * 91.4% = 8.7% of the time
Hands that I'm tied with:
AK 6/21 ways (28.5%)
Hands that I'm behind:
AA 3/21 ways (14.3%)I have 2 outs to beat (2/47 + 2/46). I will win 14.3% * 8.6% = 1.2% of the time.
I will also chop 14.3% * 17.2% = 2.5% of the time
KK 1/21 ways (4.8%) I have 4 outs to beat (4/47 + 4/46). I will win 4.8% * 17.2% = 0.8% of the time
QQ 3/21 ways (14.3%) I have 4 outs to beat (4/47 + 4/46). I will win 14.3% * 17.2% = 2.5% of the time.

Overall then:
I expect to win 31.9% of the time
I expect to chop 31.0% of the time
I expect to lose 37.1% of the time

There are 14.5 SB in the pot, and I can expect villain to put in another 4 SB onthe turn and river. It costs me 5 SB to see a showdown:

31.9% of the time I will win 18.5 SB (+EV of 5.9SB)
31.0% of the time I will win 6.75 SB from the chop (+EV of 2.1SB)
37.1% of the time I will lose 5 SB (-EV of 1.9SB)

Calling down appears to have a +6 SB expectation. I'm surprised, and thought it would be closer than that. Of course, my math could be WAY off here, so if anyone would like to correct me, it would be much appreciated.

DU