Quick Question

kgrad5 · #1 07-19-2005, 01:25 AM

Hi,
i have K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] on the button in a 6 - max $25 nl game

a call infront of me and i call sb completes bb checks
flop comes 5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

EP bets out 1$ which i raise to 3$ sb folds and BB pushes his stack of about $150 in, i have about $28 in my stack and im 99% sure he is on a flush draw and i have the best hand right now..

whats my play?

Caballa · #2 07-19-2005, 01:41 AM

[ QUOTE ]
whats my play?

[/ QUOTE ]
Let me get this straight, as I don't quite understand. You're "99% sure" that you have the best hand, and you're wondering whether you should call an all-in?

kgrad5 · #3 07-19-2005, 01:58 AM

i read a lot of posts about pushing all in on the flop with flush draws, but i dont think ive read any when you have top pair and you are sure they are on the draw..
for instance would it be correct to fold if i knew that they were pushing with AQh or AJh what about A7h? i have the best hand now but there are still 2 cards to come, is this a call always? waht if my stack was bigger?

Caballa · #4 07-19-2005, 02:45 AM

Even if he has AQh, it's still EV+ to call if you believe you have the best current hand due to the money already in the pot. As he won't always have a two overcard flush draw, calling is EV+ if you're as sure about your read as you say you were.
If your stack were bigger, it would only be a fold if you could put him on AKh, AQh, AJh, 89h, 68h, and nothing else.

Macquarie · #5 07-19-2005, 02:48 AM

A better question is how did you arrive at the 99% certain read that he was on the flush draw, and are you kidding yourself?

BB could just as likely have spiked two pair or set and be happpily pushing into a bettor and a raiser.

Bob Moss · #6 07-19-2005, 03:00 AM

If you are actually 99% sure this is easy right? Sometimes you're flipping a coin against a 15-outer, sometimes he has less and you're looking good, so you call. But the truth is you're not 99% sure. You're more like 40% sure. And now that the hand is over, you saw he had a flush draw, and you are distraught over your fold. But that's okay, I still think it was the right thing to do.

B

warlockjd · #7 07-19-2005, 05:51 AM

eziest fold youve ever made if i may 'mispell'

edit: disregard this post, no knowledge of this level

warlockjd · #8 07-19-2005, 05:54 AM

still betting he was ahead on the flop...interested to hear results tho..........

fimbulwinter · #9 07-19-2005, 06:10 AM

[ QUOTE ]

whats my play?

[/ QUOTE ]

easy math problem.

you're getting 28:34 to call, so you need 28/(28+34) = 45% pot equity.

assume you have 10% equity when behind (guess based on sets, three out draws, 5 outers etc.) and 60% when ahead (mostly 12 outers, but you have pair redraws etc.) then he needs to have a draw

.60(x) + .10(1-x) = .45
.5x = .35
x = 70% or more he has a draw to make this call.

notice the power of high pot equity semibluffs?

fim

kgrad5 · #10 07-19-2005, 06:42 AM

Thanks for the responses,
The big stack was passive enough and played his hand in such a way that I was almost positive he had a flush draw when he pushed. I said "Flush draw eh?" followed by "no heart" and i called.
Unfortunately a heart hit the turn and he took it with KhQh.
I think i made the right play since i thought i was ahead but i still thought about the call alot after so i figured id ask you guys.