Limit O8 flopped weak FH

[L0QTiS]

Ultimate Bet 0.50/1 Omaha/8 (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. CO posts a blind of $0.50.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls, UTG+2 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, CO (poster) checks, Button calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB checks.

Flop: (7.50 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(7 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG+2 calls, MP2 folds, MP3 calls, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises</font>, Button folds, BB folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero ???</font>

CO probably has a bare 9 with 3 live cards while I'm not likely to redraw to anything better. Consider, at this limit many will chase the low, or high pockets hoping to hit.

What's your game plan.

[IronDragon1]

Barring the extremely unlikely event of hitting quads, I call this-and others like it-down.

You might want to get a second opinion-I'm awful.

[Stevo]

This kind of hand loses money a lot. While you're getting 12.5-1 odds to call (with 2 others most likely calling making it 14.5-1, you can't hope to catch anything (as the 2 is probably out in someone's hand).

Those pot odds work against you too though. Anyone with a pocket pair can see that 14.5-1 is about enough for them to try to catch their house (especially if they have a low draw or redraw to a flush). And depending on the people/limit, they might even call if you raise.

It depends how you want to play it. There's a good argument to be made to fold your hand. If you check/call, anyone with a pocket pair (that probably should have folded) could hit their card and you wouldn't know, and the raiser could always pair his other card. If you reraise and he calls, against you have no idea where you stand until the cards are turned up.

A similiar situation would be if you had 289T in the BB, and the flop came down 6-7-9 with 2 suits you dont have. While you have the nuts now, there's a low out there you can't get, a flush out there you have to avoid, bigger straights, and the board could pair. The only way to keep this hand would be at a REALLY tight table or heads up.

Sometimes you should bite the bullet and fold the best hand at that time. Just like in holdem, a pair of 2s might be the best hand preflop, but with a ton of action, you're either beat or any card that flops (other than a 2) could beat you.

Maybe I'm wrong. In PL you could reraise big to force him to pay for his 10 outs, but in a limit game you're going to win a little or lose a lot. I would fold though.

[Buzz]

L0QTiS - You don't know if you're up against a set of nines or a full house (nines over deuces). CO probably a set of nines, as you suspect, but could have flopped a full house, in which case you're already dead.

I think you can assume that if CO does have a full house, and if you check, CO will bet behind you. If CO doesn't (yet) have a full house and you check, CO might bet behind you or might take the free card.
If CO does bet behind your check on the third betting round, and if you call the raise on the second betting round, then I think you call the bet on the third betting round (because CO might not yet have a full house).
If CO takes the free card, then I think you assume CO doesn't yet have the full house and in that case, I think you can afford to bet on the river, and CO should probably call you.
If CO bets behind your check on the third betting round, then I think you check and call on the fourth betting round. But if CO doesn't have a full house, and doesn't make one on the turn or river, but bets the turn, it will be pretty hard for you to bet into CO on the fourth betting round.
Therefore, what you win if you have a winner and two low cards don't come, is 18 small bets. If low does come and you win, you maybe only win 7.5 or 8.5 small bets, or so, depending.

(Phew). Babble, babble, babble. Kind of garbled reasoning above. I don't even want to re-read it myself. Seemed right while I was wading through it. Basically you're screwed because you're out of position.

Low figures to get there 240/990 and not get there 750/990.
Figure your win as 18*750/990+8*250/990, on average, or about 16SB, on average.
meanwhile, your loss will probably be 5SB. So you're going to get about 3.2 to 1 pot odds.
Meanwhile, if CO doesn't yet have the boat and if CO has 3 live cards, the odds against CO making a boat, considering your own cards, are
only about 465 to 355 or about 1.3 to 1.
Thus it looks like CO has a better chance of making a boat than you're getting for projected pot odds.
If that wasn't bad enough, one of those other opponents very well could have the other nine and also be drawing for a boat.
And then there's still the possibility that CO already has the full house.
When you put it all together, it really does look rather bleak.
I might have some wrong figuring in there because CO might have a nine and an ace and/or jack, which would cut into his odds a bit. But even so... it still looks very bleak.

I don't see how a re-raise would help you here. You're either going to get bumped again or not, and either way, I think you're backing off on the third betting round.

You're simply out of position here.

Goes against the grain to fold a flopped full house, even an under-boat. You don't want to look weak/tight, a terrible table image, and you could be getting bluffed or semi-bluffed out of the pot, especially if you already have such an image. Well... actually if you do fold here, it will probably look as though you were bluffing yourself and therefore won't hurt your table image.

All things (hopefully) considered, I agree with Stevo and think folding to the raise is probably your best move here.

Just my opinion.

Buzz

[Ironman]

Buzz,

You mention table image. As someone who just played against L0Q a few days ago, let me tell you his table image is one of a tight player. He only plays a few hands, so those hands he is part of...he's got the goods.

Now, I do admit that most of the people at our .5/1 table are not that observant, but there are a couple of us.

For me, the key is the check call on the turn. If your opponent lets it check through on the turn, then I bet out on the river.

I don't think I can let this go on the turn if he bets out, even though it's probably the right thing to do.

Good luck,

Dave

[Alchemist]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think I can let this go on the turn if he bets out, even though it's probably the right thing to do.


[/ QUOTE ]
I can't lay this down on the flop either. Let's consider this hand from the raiser's (CO) point of view. Let's assume CO is not a moron and he's holding 99xx (already a bit of a stretch). Flop comes 992. As CO, you see UTG bet and get a caller in front of you. Would you raise here? If I've got quads and have 2 customers ahead of me, awesome. Maybe my smooth call can keep in anyone else behind me and get them to bet out on the turn as well where I drop the hammer.

But if I've got something like the vulnerable 9432, I'm thinking I want to get rid of people. I'm worried about hands like AKQ9 (9 + overcards) and low chasers.

With twos full, your biggest worry is someone holding 92xx. I'd call the flop raise and see what the others do. If you still have 2 or more opponents at the turn I think you can check-fold. If there are two hands out with a 9, you've got a lot of full house cards to dodge and you'll never know if you're good or not.

[Wintermute]

I'd call here, check-call the turn, and lead out on the river. If you get raised on the river (and no low has come) you can safely fold there.

[gergery]

I’d raise the flop. You are very likely to have the best hand, and want some info on whether your opponent has the nuts or not. You also wouldn’t mind if a weak 9 folded.

I’d probably bet the turn and river and fold to a raise depending on opponents.

Your opponent can have one of several hands
-- 9 with 2 (ie. 92xx) – fairly unlikely since this is only dealt 2 ways in a 2-card coupling
-- 9 with 3 live cards including an A (ie. AKQ9) – most likely and dealt 6 ways
-- 9 with 3 live cards but no ace – also possible and dealt about 88 ways
-- 9 with a pair (i.e. AKK9) – possible, since you’ll have a pair 30% of the time
-- Some sort of bluff (ie. AA) – pretty unlikely

So a very small amount of the time you are drawing dead
Most of the time your opponent will have 10 outs
Some of the time your opponent will have 6 outs
Even he if has 10 outs that include a low draw you are still even money on the hand
And the pot has 7.5sb now, and bets on the flop/turn/river will likely cost you ~5-7 sbs. So you are getting quite an overlay.

--Greg

[lighterjobs]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd call here, check-call the turn, and lead out on the river. If you get raised on the river (and no low has come) you can safely fold there.

[/ QUOTE ]

why check-call the turn and bet the river? why not lead the turn and check-call the river? and why fold for one more bet on the river? at microlimits his opponent could easily have A39x.

[emptyshell]

I can't believe some people are suggesting to fold or even just call on this flop. Unless your opponent has 92 right now, you are the EV favorite for sure (another 9 has at most 10 outs, or about a 40% chance to catch up by the river). If overpairs want to call, great for them. Over the long run you are going to make the most by raising right now. If he reraises the flop and is a tight player, then you might consider folding.

Bet out the turn and then the river, since it's more likely the new card missed him rather than hit him. If he starts raising all of a sudden, then you have a judgement call. Probably fold.

You don't want to give him a "free" river card, which might be what he's trying to buy right now.