AA on the BB

[sully4321]

cash game i call, because there is always another day.

first day of WSOP i fold. if i pay $10,000 and lose with rockets on the first day, i would kill myself.

final table at WSOP is an automatic fold. that decision could make you $6,000,000 if the chip leader of the 9 wins the hand. even if it doesn't, it's guaranteed to make you at least a million nowadays.

[MCS]

What's with this "I'll win less than 50% of the time, so I'll fold them on the first day of the WSOP" stuff? Do you not care that you're getting 9-1? Do you think that you'll have a better chance to increase your chips by a factor of 9 by waiting somehow?

I really don't think you can be a winning tournament player if you pass up a 2-1 shot getting 9-1 from the pot. I'm not the first guy to have said this.

[cobalt]

I'm surprised at how many people are calling.

At the cash game, there's no reason to put all my money in the pot with everyone. I would prefer to take my time and earn my money slowly but surely.

At the first day of the WSOP, knowing my skill level and the skill level of the semi-pro's and pro's that I am better off calling in hopes of getting a crazy amount of chips so I can play tight and easy for as long as possible.

At the final's table of the WSOP it is a no brainer. You have to fold. With everyone all-in, the worst that can happen is that 1-2 people win/split the pot and you're guaranted third place. And third place is a whole ton of money. I'd rather be the small stack at a table with only 3 people than go bust and finish in 9th cause someone got 2 pair of some random small cards.

[DougOzzzz]

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It is a good idea to accumulate ALOT of chips early.

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You don't put yourself into a less than coin flip situation at that point.

b

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Are you the best player in the world? Unless you are, there's no way your EV would be better by folding.

What percentage of pros managed to increase their chip stack to 90K in the WSOP? Far fewer than 30%, I'm sure. Also, factor in that being the big stack would create more +EV situations in the future, and this is an EASY call.

[bernie]

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It is a good idea to accumulate ALOT of chips early.

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You don't put yourself into a less than coin flip situation at that point.

b

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Are you the best player in the world? Unless you are, there's no way your EV would be better by folding.

What percentage of pros managed to increase their chip stack to 90K in the WSOP? Far fewer than 30%, I'm sure. Also, factor in that being the big stack would create more +EV situations in the future, and this is an EASY call.

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Not saying you don't have EV. Being that if you lose you're out, that's why you wait for a 70% or better favorite to win before going all in. The risk of being bumped out is significant.

b

[DougOzzzz]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
It is a good idea to accumulate ALOT of chips early.

[/ QUOTE ]

You don't put yourself into a less than coin flip situation at that point.

b

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you the best player in the world? Unless you are, there's no way your EV would be better by folding.

What percentage of pros managed to increase their chip stack to 90K in the WSOP? Far fewer than 30%, I'm sure. Also, factor in that being the big stack would create more +EV situations in the future, and this is an EASY call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not saying you don't have EV. Being that if you lose you're out, that's why you wait for a 70% or better favorite to win before going all in. The risk of being bumped out is significant.

b

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is your goal to stick around for a while and have fun or win money? By EV, I mean $ EV, not chip EV.

[Wacken]

encouraging i'd say [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

[Wacken]

For those (many) who say if you fold on the final table it makes you automatically 2th (or 3th with split pot).
No, this hand will remove an almost random number of players from the pot depending on their stack sizes. (a bit complicated with the side pots, but on average more than half the players will be removed yes)
Your own stack size can also help you decide here. If you have the biggest stack, you could call because you won't get bust if you lose, and still many people will be out.

If you call in the first table because you think your skills are not so good that you can get your money in a safer way and this is actually your chance to get somewhere in the tournament, then yes that is correct. With my current newbie skills i would also call. Assuming you are at WSOP with a good reason, you are skilled and you got there to win, then you can fold.

In cash games it is plain stupid to fold unless it is all the money you have and you won't be able to play poker or pay your rent anymore after you lose.

[pzhon]

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At the cash game, there's no reason to put all my money in the pot with everyone. I would prefer to take my time and earn my money slowly but surely.

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Surely? What cash game allows you to win surely? In the SSNL forum, few people report a win rate much higher than 20 big blinds/100 at NL $100. Standard deviations vary, but mine is about of 100 big blinds/100. That means that for a solid winner playing 100 hands of online NL $100 is like getting your stack in as a 60-40 favorite. That's not close to a certain win; I dropped 3 buy-ins yesterday.

At higher levels, reported win rates are lower. For a solid winner, playing 100 hands may be like getting your stack in as a 55-45 favorite.

Limit is worse.

Getting paid 8:1 when the odds are only 2:1 against you is a better oppportunity than 2000 hands of normal play in a soft game. The Kelly-optimal amount of your bankroll to have at stake for normal play in a soft game is 1/5. For AA all-in against 8 opponents, it is 1/4. If you are properly bankrolled for normal play, you should happily call. This is a better deal than 10 hours of normal play.

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At the final's table of the WSOP it is a no brainer. You have to fold.


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Yes, it is the same in a SNG. This has been discussed repeatedly in the one table tournament forum. Most of the prize money (80% for SNGs) is telling you to fold. Only the difference between first and second place is telling you to call.

Funny I was going to make the exact same post. Now if you have 9 players all in, think of it this way: They think the previous players have each other's Aces and Kings and Queens so their pocket pair is good. Assume you have KK, QQ, JJ, TT, 99, 88, 77, 66 in it with you. One of them is very much likely to hit a set. How many AK, AQ can there be? There are only two Aces left and the only other non-pair hand could be KQs: all the more danger against you bullets. Most importantly, since some of these players most likely hold an Ace, leaving none in the deck, your chance of making a set and locking the game is zero. Now pull out 5 random cards from a deck and put them in front of you. Say you have 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. How likely is it that NO ONE is hold pocket 22, 55, 77, TT OR JJ? This is just a simple flop with no pairs or draws. Think about it...