#1
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Professionals EV in WSOP ME
My own boredom took over and I did a quick analysis of who won what in the 2005 WSOP ME. By my gorrila math, professional players won a little under $6.4 million.
My list of pros who cashed is below, feel free to argue with it, it's just players who I've heard of or who I know. I also may have missed some players who are pros, but that would make my analysis more conservative. Who knows exactly how many "pro" players entered, but the estimates seem to range from 200-300. Let's use 250. Let's also assume that each pro bought in directly for $10k. That would mean that the pros paid $2.5 million to win $6.4 million collectively. For each $10k that's $15,600 profit. Given the large field size, my guess is that these numbers are statistically significant, but I'd love to hear what some actual smart people have to say on the topic. Assuming the numbers are statistically significant, then the average pro should expect 150% profit in the WSOP ME. It would stand to reason that the very very best pros should be more than that -- but of course the great mystery is, how much more? I would also guess that the 150% figure is LOW since the event so still relatively top-heavy. Presumably one day a prop will win a huge WSOP ME event and then if we looked at the cash record of pros over the course of the large field WSOP history, the 150% figure would baloon. Anyway, here is my list of pros (note that I am listing Andrew Black as a pro because they called him one on the cardplayer broadcast, I'm assuming they are right). Andrew Black $1,750,000 Mike Matusow $1,000,000 Minh Ly $304,680 Phil Ivey $304,680 Tuan 'Tommy' Vu $304,680 Greg Raymer $304,680 John Juanda $274,090 Dustin Woolf $274,090 Farzad Bonyadi $235,390 Kenna James $235,390 Lee Watkinson $235,390 Hung La $173,880 Russ Hamilton $145,875 Jason Lester $107,950 Can Kim Hua $91,950 Justin Cuong Van 'J.C.' Tran $54,965 Howard Lederer $54,965 David Plastik $46,245 Paul Darden Jr. $46,245 Joe Beevers $46,245 Russ 'Dutch' Boyd $39,075 Layne Flack $39,075 James Meehan $39,075 Garry Bush $33,197 Mark Napolitano $33,197 Michael Mizrachi $33,197 Michael O'Malley $28,375 Bob Ciaffone $24,365 Barbara Enright $24,365 Corey Cheresnick $21,070 Sam Farha $21,070 Kirill Gerasimov $16,055 Clonie Gowen $14,135 Gavin Smith $14,135 Meng La $12,500 |
#2
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Re: Professionals EV in WSOP ME
statistically insignificant imo.
your experiment is also flawed because you should have selected who you felt were the pro players before the event. (i didnt read your list of players whove cashed.) |
#3
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Re: Professionals EV in WSOP ME
[ QUOTE ]
statistically insignificant imo. [/ QUOTE ] as a theoretical question i'd love to know from a math person: if you tracked 250 random players from beginning to end of the WSOP ME what is the likelihood that they collectively would earn 150% of their buy-in without one of them winning 1st or 2nd? [ QUOTE ] your experiment is also flawed because you should have selected who you felt were the pro players before the event. (i didnt read your list of players whove cashed.) [/ QUOTE ] yes, that's the real problem with the analysis. but still, read the list. if anything i'm guessing it's a slight undercount, but people might quibble with a few names. the real question is how many pros entered the event -- i have no idea of a way to prove that, i just go by numbers i have seen and heard bounced around ranging from 200-300. the real number could be much higher as many of the internet qualifiers are probably unknown internet pros. |
#4
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Re: Professionals EV in WSOP ME
What does "pro" mean? Maybe separate the players by qualifiers and direct buy-in's. You will get a few rich people lumped in with most of the pros who directly bought in, but that way you can actually have a objective dividing line for the entire field.
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#5
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Re: Professionals EV in WSOP ME
[ QUOTE ]
the real number could be much higher as many of the internet qualifiers are probably unknown internet pros. [/ QUOTE ] There were two Stars qualifiers at my first table on Day 1A who didn't have jobs and played internet poker full time - and I know one of them cashed. Small sample size, to be sure; but I bet these guys weren't alone. |
#6
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Re: Professionals EV in WSOP ME
In HOH, harrington states that many people don't understand why NL is called the cadilac of poker. He says the true reason is because a NL tourny has the greatest EV of all games. He states that a pro player should win 6,000 for every 1,000 in entry fees.
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#7
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Re: Professionals EV in WSOP ME
I believe it, epsecially in a tournament with so many bad players as the WSOP ME.
Pros had a very good year, and I'm quite sure that the return of the pros is more than 150%. |
#8
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Re: Professionals EV in WSOP ME
[ QUOTE ]
Who knows exactly how many "pro" players entered, but the estimates seem to range from 200-300. Let's use 250. [/ QUOTE ]i dont know what youre definition of pro is, but if youre talking about anyone whos main source of income is poker, this estimate is absolutely ridiculous. |
#9
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Re: Professionals EV in WSOP ME
One pro estimated that the average first day starting table at the main event had at least 2-3 players whose expectation was to win back at least twice the buy-in for every buy-in invested.
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#10
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Re: Professionals EV in WSOP ME
tommy vu isnt a pro is he? i think you're mixing him up with tuan le
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