Knowing you have the game beat at a certain limit

seahawktd · #1 07-16-2005, 05:58 PM

Say you have beaten the low limits like a red-headed step-chiled and then proceed to take on higher limits, how many hours of play can you accurately say you have the game cracked? 25, 100, 500, 1000??

So far, not counting bonuses, after a mere 28 hours of play I'm up $18.50 hour at 10-20(could have been more, but I suffered some horrendous beats, but it's water under the bridge of course).

I know 28 hours isn't much, but I'm quite confident that I can beat the game. I thought the 10-20 was going to be a table full of pros and sharks, performing cunning check-raises and powerful semi-bluffs. Fact of the matter, it does play better than low limits, but there are many players who play just as bad as the low limit fish.

MrFeelNothin · #2 07-16-2005, 06:09 PM

You're up a whopping 26 BB and you KNOW that you can beat the game.

I can't argue with that.

winker · #3 07-16-2005, 06:17 PM

It's funny, I was going to start a thread and ask this same question. Although, I'm a little more conservative than the thread starter here.

I've been playing at the $1/2 level (low, I know). Right now I'm around 24 BB/100. That is alfter over 815 hands. How many hands would you guys say I need to have played until 'I know' I can beat a level? 1,000? 10,000? 30,000?

I'd like to move up to 2/4 and eventually 5/10. Any tips for managing this sort of thing? I've been playing a little 2/4 and haven't been outplayed on a hand yet, but that was only for about 3 hours of playing.

Please advise. Thanks.

Ryan11 · #4 07-16-2005, 06:34 PM

100,000 hands should give you a good estimate. . .come on 815 hands do you really think you can sustain that BB/100?

seahawktd · #5 07-16-2005, 06:39 PM

[ QUOTE ]
100,000 hands should give you a good estimate. . .come on 815 hands do you really think you can sustain that BB/100?

[/ QUOTE ]

what exactly does BB/100 mean? Thanks

MrFeelNothin · #6 07-16-2005, 06:41 PM

Dont worry about that, youre beating the 10/20!

Who cares about stupid stuff like statistics.

UATrewqaz · #7 07-16-2005, 06:48 PM

I'll be kind...

1. YOu need a very large bank roll for the game you are playing, at least 300 BB (thus if you are playing 10/20 you need to have $6000 MINIMUM available to you to ensure you don't bust). If you want to try to play "semi-professionally" this should be at least 1000BB.

It should be noted that these numbers assume you are playing WINNING poker.

2. ANYONE can win ANY amount in the short term. You cannot say you are a winning player until you establish a win rate (in terms of BB per hour or BB per 100 hands). When someone says I have a win rate of 2.4 BB / 100 that means on average every 100 hands they are dealt they finish up 2.4 big bets for the lmiit they are playing at. (thus a 2/4 player playing at a 2.4 BB /100 rate would be winning $9.60 every hundred hands).

It takes TENS OF THOUSANDS OF HANDS to establish a semi-reasonable win rate. Poker is a game of high statistical variance. You can play badly and win for long periods and play well and lose for long periods. But the law of large numbers will eventually push all losers in the negatives and all winners in the positives.

3. If you haven't seriosly read and studied the standard famous poker books (anything by Sklansky) and analyzed your play online with Poker Tracker there is no way you can be ready to be semi-pro.

The best advice anyone can give you is to move down in limits, say to 2/4 (I'm assuming if you are playing 10/20 you have ample mad money, if not go down further).

Play 10K - 20K hands at 2/4 and then look at your results.

Neal_Schon · #8 07-16-2005, 06:49 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I've been playing at the $1/2 level (low, I know). Right now I'm around 24 BB/100. That is alfter over 815 hands. How many hands would you guys say I need to have played until 'I know' I can beat a level? 1,000? 10,000? 30,000?

[/ QUOTE ]

at 24BB/100, 1000 hands is enough to know you are a winner.

FlyWf · #9 07-16-2005, 07:10 PM

There's a difference between someone who has won money at poker and someone who plays winning poker. Unless the 180 BB in 800 hand guy starts trying to give his money away he likely will be a winner at that level even if his true playing level is slightly negative.

I know where you are coming from, a winning player is more likely to have an unsustainably high winrate than a losing player, the error bars are huge. Larger than you are giving credit for. If I play 1 hand and win 8 BB I have an inconceivably high 800 BB/100 rate(and the other players in that hand have tremendously low rates). Does that mean I'm more likely to be a winner over time period X than the players from whom I won that pot? Obviously. I have their money now.

Does that mean I'm a better player than they are?

Dollars won are very much like a random walk.

jman220 · #10 07-16-2005, 07:13 PM

[ QUOTE ]
It's funny, I was going to start a thread and ask this same question. Although, I'm a little more conservative than the thread starter here.

I've been playing at the $1/2 level (low, I know). Right now I'm around 24 BB/100. That is alfter over 815 hands. How many hands would you guys say I need to have played until 'I know' I can beat a level? 1,000? 10,000? 30,000 ?

I'd like to move up to 2/4 and eventually 5/10. Any tips for managing this sort of thing? I've been playing a little 2/4 and haven't been outplayed on a hand yet, but that was only for about 3 hours of playing.

Please advise. Thanks.

[/ QUOTE ]

Definitely not 1,000. Definitly definitely not 816 hands. 10,000 is where you start to get an idea, 30,000 is where that idea gets better.