Deepstack, second nuts, huge bet

xorbie · #1 07-16-2005, 03:44 PM

8 or 9 $1/$2 at Absolute, $400 max buyin. Me and a few others at the table have pretty deep stacks, including villain at about $360. I have $670, mostly by playing pretty aggro preflop and winning against pretty bad play postflop by villain and others. Villain has been getting mad, telling me I get lucky, suck out, etc. Clearly thinks he is better than me, clearly wants my money.
I've still been pretty aggro, but villain has not. He's been pretty quiet in general.

The hand.

Three limps to me on button with 8J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. I limp, blinds stay in. 6 to the flop.

Flop ($12): 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Checked around.

Turn ($12): 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]10[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Sweet. Villain, who limped in EP, leads out for $12. This is a larger than normal bet at this table. Folded to me, I raise to $32. Villain pushes. $330 or so back to me.

Caballa · #2 07-16-2005, 04:04 PM

I would fold here. A huge overbet from someone who's "quiet" and waiting for an opportunity to "get you back" on this sort of board in an unraised pot is almost always the nuts. I'd be very surprised if it weren't.

teamdonkey · #3 07-16-2005, 04:06 PM

wow... i might need the standard tiffany williamson 10 minutes to think about this one

teamdonkey · #4 07-16-2005, 04:13 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I would fold here. A huge overbet from someone who's "quiet" and waiting for an opportunity to "get you back" on this sort of board in an unraised pot is almost always the nuts. I'd be very surprised if it weren't.

[/ QUOTE ]

even if it isn't, villain almost certainly has a ton of outs - turned a set of 10s, a[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] maybe.

-Skeme- · #5 07-16-2005, 04:34 PM

I see 1 hand that beats you, 6 others that don't, and a few big draws that are still a bit behind. We can probably rule out him pushing a big draw on the turn since a player getting this aggressive with one card to come would most likely lead the flop with it. Not to mention you noted that he's not very aggressive.

I really don't like this spot, but I don't think I can fold knowing there are more than a few hands he'd play this way that don't beat you. A plethora of sets come to mind.

Definitely tricky. You might have to fold. That's a big raise.

xorbie · #6 07-18-2005, 12:17 AM

Bump.

Go_Blue88 · #7 07-18-2005, 12:35 AM

So reasonable hands that he could limp here with (that he'd overplay like this) are 77,99,1010,68, and QJ. The bet looks like he's obviously trying to get you to call, but I can't figure out why. There's two possibilities that come to mind, a)that board sucks, and he wants to get it all in now b/c he thinks he has the best hand, or b)he reads you for a very strong hand, and prays that you'll call with it. However, if you're playing aggro, then why would he read you for such a strong hand now? Additionally, there is sort of a c)he's pushing a draw, or a weaker hand with the hope that you'll fold, and he can show. The reason I consider this is that you said that he hates you, and so he might try to make a play like that out of spite. However, you mentioned that he's been pretty quiet lately, and so, I highly doubt this.

I feel like you should call; you're ahead of so many hands that he might play like this. Also, I doubt that he suspects that you might call on the button w/ith J8, he probably only considered QJ as a possibility for your hand range.

-Google- · #8 07-18-2005, 01:32 AM

Easy call.

Why do you think so much? There is only 1 possible hand that beats you. Calling must be +EV in this position, even if you are beat this one time, the next 4-5 times you will most likely win the hand.

-Google-

teamdonkey · #9 07-18-2005, 02:54 AM

upon further review, i think there's two possible explanations for such a huge push:

1. the board scares him and he doesn't want to play a possible river scare card against an aggro opponent. what hand would be scared on the turn, but slow playing the flop? My guess is a set.
2. he's pissed off and trying to play sherrif.

Both of these you are ahead of. Bottom line, i don't think he pushes with the nuts. I'm still guessing 10-10.

So how did it work out?

Trainwreck · #10 07-18-2005, 07:41 AM

I fold and kick his butt later....

I avoid 1 hand non-nut donations, but I'm somehow not weak-tight. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Bad player error there, overbets the nuts... typical donk online move.

Even if he's just on a set, it's too much+redraws.

If he flashes 72o so what, he didn't win much.

>TW<