How long is the "long run"?

[AceCraig]

thx. good input.

[shant]

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Thank you, yeah its 3/6. well we all have some leaks. Mine might be folding too much.

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My suggestion is post more hands or check out the stats post and see how your stats match up.

[einbert]

The answer to your question is pretty simple.

It's entirely possible that you are running bad and crushing the game for 3BB/100, it's entirely possible that you are running at your exact true winrate, and it's entirely possible that you are a losing player. Based on your SD in BB/100, each of these possibilities can be assigned a probability based on a normal probability function (the most likely possibility is that you are running at your true winrate, but that's not terribly likely, although it is very likely that the WR you are running at is close to your true WR, ie your true WR isn't something like 10BB/100).

Do a search on "confidence intervals" and try to compute yours for some different percentages. That might give you a better idea of what I mean.

[AceCraig]

My stats are close to the mean. I am a little low on aggresion. My player rating on PT is Tight aggresive passive.

[Argus]

I don't want to offend, but I do want you to make a frank evalutation of your game that I think will help you. If you are senstive or manstruating, maybe you should read this another day.

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The point is , is it worth chasing the long run? And how long is it?

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Is it? You can answer this question without resorting to the long run by evaluating individual situations according to their pot odds (and implied or reverse implied odds when appropriate). If you don't understand this I'm alarmed that you're running as well as 0.5 bb/100. Read SSH again and pay attention to the section on pot odds. Read Theory of Poker for another discussing of the same topic. Your disdain for draws and the following statement make me think you are playing fit or fold, weak/tight poker.

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My stats are close to the mean. I am a little low on aggresion. My player rating on PT is Tight aggresive passive.

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TAP is terrible. I think a LAG profile (or at least sLAG) is more profitable than TAP. When TAPs raise I fold everything except premium holdings. I fold marginal hands on the flop, and rope them in to overplaying when they get something good and I flop something great because they waited so long for a hand that they think it should win. My advice to you is this: bet more, raise more (especially preflop), defend your big blind more, steal blinds more, and don't be so chicken postflop. These are the problems most passive players have with their game, so I'm assuming you do too. Maybe they don't all apply to you, but you should definitely be thinking about all of them. Start posting hands for advice, and better yet: start replying to hands that were posted.

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The other point is that in the book SSH it states that making $50,000 is no big deal. No big deal and the long run is very long are two very contrasting statements.

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Not so much. You can start approximating the long run at around 50-100k hands, depending on your standard deviation and what you consider an acceptable error. You can certainly play 180k hands a year, and at 2 BB/100 you'd make $21,600. To make $50,000 a year playing 3/6 you'd have to be more of an expert or play more tables and maintain that rate. $50,000, while not unreasonable, is a bit of a lofty goal.

[Buck_65]

Great post, Argus. I was thinking of responding with something along the lines of "you probably need to work on your aggression, but I have nothing to base this off of since you didn't give us ANY information."

Luckily you went into detail and I can just say "I agree with Argus" [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[AceCraig]

Thank you for your reply. It makes sense. I will answer more posts to see if my ev is in line.

[einbert]

Argus is definitely right too.

Have you read SSHE? In addition to what Argus said, if you are playing passively after the flop in a 3/6 game, you are probably allowing your opponents to draw out too cheaply on you a lot. That is going to cost you a TON of money as well.

[AceCraig]

Thanks alot Argus. After taking a break for the day and thinking about what you said I realized that I am too easy to read.
I remember back when I first started play poker. My friends had a no-limit tourney. I read a little from super system I and went. i was very aggresive, bluffing some and semi bluffing alot. I was very hard to read. When I made my hand I got paid off. I won my first tourney.

Also when i started playing online i carved up my opponents by doing the same. They never knew what I had so they had to pay off my monsters and strong hands. Believe or not, I would bust everyone at the table and was fearless. I want it back.

Somehow I turned into tight weak. And now they just let me win small pots or I lose a big one. This is because they know exactly where they are in the hand.

I'm gonna read TOP again. And get back to raising much more preflop and post flop and semi-bluffing/ bluffing more. This way they will pay me off at the right times.

Thanks again!