Hand values-- Return on Investment

AceCraig · #1 07-15-2005, 03:28 PM

Basic question, In SSE they state most starting hands are not profitable in the long run. If most starting hands are unprofitable in the "long run" then how do you play poker and win money.

For example, my data base of 60,000 hands shows JJ as about a break even. This is not too exciting to realize.

baronzeus · #2 07-15-2005, 03:30 PM

This means you're either overplaying JJ or you're having a bad run with it. How many instances of JJ do you have? I'm very profitable with it in my database of 150K hands.

AceCraig · #3 07-15-2005, 03:34 PM

I have 250 times playing JJ in 60,000 hands. I am .02c per hand loser.

baronzeus · #4 07-15-2005, 03:36 PM

The easiest way to see why you're losing money so often is to go review your hands. See if you hit sets the right frequency, see if your sets are broken te right frequency...

Once again, 250 hands is nothing.

crunchy1 · #5 07-15-2005, 03:38 PM

Proof that the long run is in fact - LONG.

Over 60,000+ hands at 2/4 I've had AKo about 550 times, AKs about 190 times and KQs 184 times. These numbers seem reasonable (i.e. I don't think I've been running exceptionally good or bad starting-hand-wise).

However, I'm wining at a rate of .13BB/Hand with AKs, .95BB/Hand with AKo and .75BB/100 with KQs. Clearly AKs is a superior hand to either AKo or KQs yet I'm not making as much money with it as I feel I should. This is due to a number of factors - none of which I'm particularly worried about.

sy_or_bust · #6 07-15-2005, 03:43 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Proof that the long run is in fact - LONG.

[/ QUOTE ]

Great advice. FWIW, I've had QQ beat out AA over 50k hands by 1BB/100 and 98s have huge numbers while T9s sulks in the background at marginally +EV. You really need an astounding number of hands to cover all of the bases enough times to root out your atrocious beats and big wins. One or two big pots will dramatically effect these results over a medium sample.

econ_tim · #7 07-15-2005, 04:27 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Basic question, In SSE they state most starting hands are not profitable in the long run. If most starting hands are unprofitable in the "long run" then how do you play poker and win money.

[/ QUOTE ]

You make money by playing the hands that are profitable and folding the ones that aren't.

Regarding your jacks, you might want to look through the hand histories where you have JJ and post some. Maybe you aren't value betting enough, or you could be going to far with them when you are beat.