do I have enough outs to call?

scott111 · #1 07-15-2005, 09:51 AM

I count 10 outs. But are they all good? Sorry no reads but I did just started using PokerTracker.

Ultimate Bet 0.25/0.50 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG+1 calls, 1 fold, MP1 calls, 3 folds, Hero raises, 2 folds, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: (7.40 SB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
UTG+1 bets, MP1 folds, Hero calls.

Turn: (4.70 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG+1 bets, Hero ????

parappa · #2 07-15-2005, 10:04 AM

Do you have that many? A read would really help here, though since we don't have one, I'm guessing that UTG+1's most likely hand here is a medium pair, which would make your outs good. I think that your ace and king outs are probably good here, so I'd give you credit for 10.

However, I find it useful to work the other way as well, and say "How many outs do I need to have to call?" Since you've got 5.7:1 pot odds, you need approximately 7 outs to call. Even discounting your A/K outs to three, I think you can call.

(note: there seems to be some kind of converter problem. I'm assuming you are heads up).

tiltaholic · #3 07-15-2005, 10:06 AM

agreed. reads would help a lot.

i normally raise the flop here.

Nilbud · #4 07-15-2005, 10:41 AM

I'm pretty sure overcards are only worth three outs total. So, on the flop, you've got seven outs. There is no flush on the board and I don't think it's likely UTG+1 is holding 36x unless he's incredibly loose. In this situation, against one opponent, I would raise. He might have 22x/44x/55x, but you have the four outs to the straight to fall back on.

If he caps the flop or bets out on the turn, I'm folding the turn UI. With the line you chose, I'd probably call the turn bet with four outs to the straight (I don't think he's on a flush draw so I count all four outs) and the possiblity that he has a small/mid pair that we can beat if the overcards come good. I'm definitely folding the river UI.

Sir Bruce · #5 07-15-2005, 12:10 PM

You need to discount these outs by a lot. Especially the treys, because it puts 4 to a straight and leaving you with the sucker end. I'd give the straight about 1.5-2 outs. The overcard outs are better, but there's a chance of reverse domination - people love to play Ace-rag. I'd give them about 4.5 outs. So you have maybe 6 outs, making the flop call ok, but a definite turn fold with only one card to come and a small pot.

Boolean · #6 07-15-2005, 01:41 PM

Grunching..
Generally, you should give yourself 1.5 outs per overcard because of the likelihood of top pair being beaten. Right now you're drawing to the low end of a one-card gutshot. It's possible you're going to split with another ace, or beaten. It's also possible you're beat already. I'd give myself 3 outs for the overcards, and about 3 outs for the gutshot, total six outs. You have enough on the flop, and you might be able to swing it on the turn based on implied odds. Personally, I'm weak-tight, so I fold the turn.

Durs522 · #7 07-15-2005, 02:16 PM

I think I raise the flop here. Without reads its tough to put UTG1 on a hand. Its safe to assume he may have limp/called with a hand like 76s. When we put out the raise you can get a feel for where you're at. If he 3-bets I call with the intention of folding unimproved. The reason I bet the flop is that we need to find out where we are at its better to do while the bets are small. Calling here doesn't seem like a good option as you really don't know where you are in the hand. Like I said about getting 3-bet, depending on the opponent and reads I would either fold the turn unimproved or go into check-call mode.

I think the turn play here is tough because you really don't know where you are and I don't think I want to put in extra bets when I'm either WA/WB. I think I check/call this UI.

Durs

BTW - I grunched this so I could be way off.

Redd · #8 07-15-2005, 02:26 PM

[ QUOTE ]
i normally raise the flop here.

[/ QUOTE ]

For what reasons?

CardinalsFan · #9 07-15-2005, 02:30 PM

I agree, you should raise here. First, to get information, but there are some other reasons.

First, this player may think he has a strong hand and be incorrect. These players aren't very good. He could also have a mid pair like 99 and limped w/ it. The raise will let you know where he's at.

The other reason is that this player could be bluffing himself. Bad players, who don't really understand bluffing, like to do it whenever they think they can get away with it. Some players play poker at these limits simply to win pots by bluffing. They are that excited by it. Granted there aren't many of those, but this flop could have missed this guy, he saw two opponents, and taken a stab at the flop. A semi-bluff is a great weapon here.

On the turn, I still call. I think your 10 outs are good, because it's very likely aces or kings beat him. If they don't, your pot odds are so much greater than the break-even odds that, to me, it's not worth worrying about.

GTSamIAm · #10 07-15-2005, 02:38 PM

He's probably betting a pp 77-99 or so. 3's, K's, A's. 4 for the 3's, 5 for K's and A's. Along with the 1 out I took out on the K's and A's is the chance that he has a flush draw. So about 9 outs. Calling is fine. You'll also at least call on the river if you hit. So you're getting maybe 1.25 extra bets on the river.