Live hand against a weak tight

[jordanx]

I see your logic, but heads up on the river just isn't the place to make a fold for one bet. I mean 15 to 1. You're loosing so little value by calling it's worth calling just to see what he has.

There is an off chance he has KQ and you chop.

Bottom line, you had a read and you went with it, you we're obviously confident enough to lay down top two. Certainly you wouldn't make this fold online, but I could see it live if you had a good read on the guy.

Overall you played the hand great, you figured that if the guy improved w/ the 9 on the turn, every hand that he could have now beats you on the river. That is what is important.

[baronzeus]

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I see your logic, but heads up on the river just isn't the place to make a fold for one bet. I mean 15 to 1.


(There is an off chance he has KQ and you chop.)


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THis is the best argument so far for calling IMO. And you're right, 14:1 or 15:1 is a really hard fold, I definitely would have called against an unknown (probably raised) or a taggy/laggy player.

[shant]

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What were his PF raising standards? I don't like this fold either.

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I hadn't seen him raise anything yet, but it was only after 4 or 5 revolutions...which i guess is about 40 hands so he didn't raise much.

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I don't think 4 or 5 orbits is enough to make a read to make a laydown like this. He could have had AK, KQ, K7, Q7, etc. He was the BB, so his range is huge. 15:1 you need to call that river.

[jordanx]

I mean, you are likely beat here, it's just a big pot thing:

Since the pot is large your getting great value on a call anyways, putting chips in the pot isn't a bad idea, even if you end up losing.

It slightly loosens up your image, it lets the guy get comfortable betting the river and lets people know that you won't let them bluff you out of a big pot.

So you earn some meta game points while you are getting a great deal.

[baronzeus]

You're right in retrospect. ANY card other than a 9 and I would have called the river. Yeah, it's possible that he was getting tricky since I only had like 4 or 5 showdowns on him.

PS he showed not that it matters.

[shant]

I understand the 9 is a terrible card as it takes out a range of hands you were beating, but I stil call. You should hold off on the results.

[einbert]

40 hands is hardly a read, and he will have KQ or K7 or Q7 some significant portion of the time here.

Bad fold.

[einbert]

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PS he showed not that it matters.

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This is obviously a high variance call, don't post the results as they have no meaningful bearing on the discussion whatsoever.

[baronzeus]

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40 hands is hardly a read, and he will have KQ or K7 or Q7 some significant portion of the time here.

Bad fold.

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40 hands live > 40 hands online, I was pretty solid on this guy, but even still it's probably a bad fold.

[jskills]

Nope. Not gonna do it.

Not folding in that spot EVER.

I assume you're concerned about JT.

But you're getting 14-1 to call one more bet to see a showdown. I don't see how you can be that sure you're beat ...