How to play AA - Page 2

Jon Matthews · #11 07-01-2003, 12:22 PM

His play isn't the greatest at all but I'm surprised that no one suggested this as his holding considering how many dodgy players out there...

gunbuster · #12 07-01-2003, 12:32 PM

It is a possible, but unprobable holding, without having any other information. We didn't didn't have any information about the kind of players that were there. In any event, you can't go around playing thinking that the nuts are always out there, otherwise you'll be a pretty easy target.

fnurt · #13 07-01-2003, 12:58 PM

This is a tough one. Yeah I'd feel bad if I folded and then he showed something like AJ. But with this kind of flop, with 3 cards in the 8-Q range, it's so bad for your big pair cause there are just so many hands that can hit it. You might be up against 2 pair or better. You might be up against a pair + draw where you're technically "ahead" but the hand is really a 50/50 proposition. Some "drawing" hands, like JhTh, are actually big favorites here. Or it's possible he might have a hand like AJo and you're in fine shape.

It's always hard to get away from AA, but this is one of the most dangerous flop types imaginable. I think if you lay down AA every time you see a flop like this and someone puts you all-in, you'll come out ahead in the long run.

Copernicus · #14 07-01-2003, 01:44 PM

sorry..duplicated

Copernicus · #15 07-01-2003, 01:49 PM

I dont think his flop betting was that bad. Once he has picked up some chips from that round, what can happen in later rounds...not much good and a lot of bad. Few turn cards will allow him to get much more $ out of you, and those that do present some risk to him. You may have a heart draw, you may fill a higher straight or counterfeit the current one, and you may have flopped a set. He takes all of your drawing odds away, and is a big favorite to knock you out if you do call. If its folded he leaves the table guessing about his all-in standards, and may project the table image he wants.

One thing I have been thinking about, and is really the subject of a different thread, which I'll start when I think I know the answer...

Are pot/implied odds the right thing to look at in making a call/no call decision? Always? Never? Multi-player, but not heads up? Only heads up?

The issue is the true economic value of extra vs lost chips. On a simplistic level, S&M would say the chips you win arent as valuable as the chips you lose, so a call at exactly the right "tournament chip" odds is not correct because of the "utility" of the chips.

On a more complex level, what you care about is your tournament EV, not the hand EV, or are they the same in the long run? My gut tells me that they are the same when you are down to heads up play, but they not the same when there are multiple players in the tournament, but that you need substanially better than proper TC odds to make a call for a large % of your stack. Any preliminary thoughts before I kill a lot of brain cells on something thats already been resolved?