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#1
07-13-2005, 12:47 PM
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Re: Ever give credit for quads (when holding second nuts)?
I'm calling because a 9 is quit unlikely for both statistical reasons based on hand distributions and based on Bayesian inference from preflop action. Not many hands with a 9 get min-raised preflop. So I would say he has a 9 maybe 2-5% of the time, an ace around 50% of the time and I'm scooping around 45% of the time. Easy call. This line looks much more like someone trying to push me off my hand than anything else. And note that by my passive play, I have ENCOURAGED him to make that type of move. So the hands with which he will take that line are much wider. So it is much more profitable than a line where I am betting the turn and river, like in the actual hand, where I am encouraging him to fold and he is STILL pushing over the top.
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#2
07-13-2005, 12:52 PM
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Re: Ever give credit for quads (when holding second nuts)?
[ QUOTE ]
And note that by my passive play, I have ENCOURAGED him to make that type of move. [/ QUOTE ] Ah, yet another important point I need to mull. I need to be able to call the ultimate all-in when taking this line.
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#3
07-13-2005, 01:19 PM
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Re: Ever give credit for quads (when holding second nuts)?
[ QUOTE ]
I have ENCOURAGED him to make that type of move. So the hands with which he will take that line are much wider. [/ QUOTE ] I don't see why you're calling. From Villian's perspective, what do you put your opponent on? He check calls the turn, so I think he has an Ace, a nine, or a pocket pair (he doesn't believe that i have anything so he calls w/ a pp). On the river, i can use this logic against you; in fact, this is why overbets work so well in my opinion. People think "well i played it so passively, he might be trying to push me off of my hand." Basically I see this as calling ~40 bucks to split ~6 dollar pot, and 3 of those 6 dollars are yours and 3 are his. So you're calling 40 bucks to win like fifty cents (i can't remember the action p/f). Then, the times that Villian does have a 9, you'll lose 40 bucks. Why would Villian bluff this much to win a 6 dollar pot? I just don't see it; I see this as a split or losing situation, and I have so little in the pot that I'd just fold. Am i missing something here?
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#4
07-13-2005, 01:53 PM
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Re: Ever give credit for quads (when holding second nuts)?
[ QUOTE ]
On the river, i can use this logic against you; in fact, this is why overbets work so well in my opinion. People think "well i played it so passively, he might be trying to push me off of my hand." [/ QUOTE ] I can use this logic against you. If people think there is no way you will push into a small pot with anything worse than an ace, then I can always push here and get you to laydown anything short of quad nines. All we're arguing about is levels of thinking. I am saying that most opponents here are on the first level of thinking: "I want him to fold, so I'll bet a lot." You are saying that they are on the second level of thinking: "I know that a big bet looks like a bluff, so I will make it with a good hand and hope to get a call." Of course that's possible. The question is, how likely is that? Not only how likely is it that villain would push with an ace or a nine, which I agree might be likely, but how often will he also push with something which is NOT an ace or a nine? I think for many people in this situation it is not unlikely. [ QUOTE ] Basically I see this as calling ~40 bucks to split ~6 dollar pot, and 3 of those 6 dollars are yours and 3 are his. [/ QUOTE ] All of the money is in the pot. None of it is yours or his. [ QUOTE ] So you're calling 40 bucks to win like fifty cents (i can't remember the action p/f). Then, the times that Villian does have a 9, you'll lose 40 bucks. [/ QUOTE ] So are you saying that you would fold preflop, or that you would fold on the turn? (hint:I think either of those is extremely way too weak) [ QUOTE ] Why would Villian bluff this much to win a 6 dollar pot? I just don't see it; I see this as a split or losing situation, and I have so little in the pot that I'd just fold. Am i missing something here? [/ QUOTE ] Well, if he will win $6 by bluffing for $40 he only needs to get you to fold <90% of the time. If you're folding an ace here, you easily fold something like 95-98% of the time. Sounds like a +EV play to me.
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#5
07-13-2005, 02:05 PM
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Re: Ever give credit for quads (when holding second nuts)?
Well, if he will win $6 by bluffing for $40 he only needs to get you to fold <90% of the time. If you're folding an ace here, you easily fold something like 95-98% of the time. Sounds like a +EV play to me.
[/ QUOTE ] First, thanks for taking the time to respond to me; I appreciate it. This point that I quoted is something that I didn't consider. I need to start using this form of thinking when I analyze hands, especially if I want to play high stakes in the future. I definately understand your reasoning now.
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#6
07-13-2005, 03:26 PM
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Re: Ever give credit for quads (when holding second nuts)?
this is not a bluff. he will not expect you to fold an ace, he will expect you to call with it. he might do this with an ace because he's sure enough that you don't have a nine.
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#7
07-13-2005, 01:23 PM
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Re: Ever give credit for quads (when holding second nuts)?
[ QUOTE ]
I'm calling because a 9 is quit unlikely for both statistical reasons based on hand distributions and based on Bayesian inference from preflop action. Not many hands with a 9 get min-raised preflop. So I would say he has a 9 maybe 2-5% of the time, an ace around 50% of the time and I'm scooping around 45% of the time. Easy call. This line looks much more like someone trying to push me off my hand than anything else. And note that by my passive play, I have ENCOURAGED him to make that type of move. So the hands with which he will take that line are much wider. So it is much more profitable than a line where I am betting the turn and river, like in the actual hand, where I am encouraging him to fold and he is STILL pushing over the top. [/ QUOTE ] so you think the villain is making a cold stone bluff AND risking all of his stack on it 45% of the time? highly unlikely I'd say when he goes all-in in this situation, the percentages are more 2-3% he has a 9, 95% he has an A, 2% stone cold bluff. i'm folding and waiting for a better spot to put all my money in
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#8
07-13-2005, 01:45 PM
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Re: Ever give credit for quads (when holding second nuts)?
By your own numbers, it's a call.
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#10
07-13-2005, 03:24 PM
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Re: Ever give credit for quads (when holding second nuts)?
[ QUOTE ]
I'm calling because a 9 is quit unlikely for both statistical reasons based on hand distributions and based on Bayesian inference from preflop action. Not many hands with a 9 get min-raised preflop. So I would say he has a 9 maybe 2-5% of the time, an ace around 50% of the time and I'm scooping around 45% of the time. [/ QUOTE ] he has a nine a lot more than 5% of the time, and you are ahead a LOT less than 45% of the time. by the way, villain didn't minraise preflop.
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