15 to the money in the WSOP ME. What do you do here?

ariesone · #1 07-12-2005, 03:48 PM

We were 10 minutes from day 2 being over. I had spent the last 10 hours fighting for my life, never above 20k in chips. I could not get two good deals within an hour of each other. Everyone around me had 80k or more in chips.
I admit I had spent the last 30 minutes feeling sorry for myself because I am getting no cards, I am blinding off again and I can tell I am just not going to make it.

So, I am back down to below 15k in chips. The blinds are 800/1600 with a 200 ante. I am UTG and I look down at a suited AQ. Looks like gold to me. I meant to 3 bet, but for some reason I bet out 3200. Just tired I guess. Guy out in the middle makes it 10k to me. I figure him for a big pair. I look down at my stack and I think I saw 5 chips instead of 11.5k in chips. The blinds are staring me in the face again. I thought about laying it down, but I think "seeing" 5 chips instead of my chip count when everyone around me has hundreds of chips messed me up. I thought I might have 3 outs at least and didn't think I was going see anything better, so I decided to take a stand right there. He shows QQ and that is it for me.

Of course I have been playing this hand out in my head over and over. I believe now I should have laid the hand down preflop and continued to be patient. What do you think?

Thanks in advance for you input.

People_Mover · #2 07-12-2005, 04:10 PM

If it makes you feel better, my QQ was taken out by AQs in the last 350K guaranteed.

Rekwob · #3 07-12-2005, 10:54 PM

well the only way you get away from this is folding preflop, and when you're card dead, and this shortstacked under the gun, folding preflop is the worst you can do. just one of those things...

MrJinx · #4 07-12-2005, 11:14 PM

Open-Push preflop. I hate that minraise with your stack.

I think you have to go to the felt here AQ, the blinds will eat you alive here on the next two hands, giving you almost no shot. He could have percieved your minraise on a shortstack as weakness and could be on a steal.

Matador225 · #5 07-12-2005, 11:26 PM

Yea I definitely agree with everybody. You could have pushed pre-flop but once you got re-raised you were left with little alternative. Just a tough break I suppose.

betgo · #6 07-12-2005, 11:47 PM

I know it is not approved of here, but this short stacked this close to the money you could fold AQs UTG. I am not sure if you have that much chance at significantly bigger money. You might wait for a bigger hand or better situation than this before risking cashing. Pushing UTG with AQs is EV+, but not that EV+.

I agree with everyone that pushing is better than miniraising.

If the short stack who pushed seemed like he was playing really tight afraid of busting out, you might be able to fold here. If an aggressive big stack reraised you, you have to call, as he could easily be stealing in this situation.

adanthar · #7 07-12-2005, 11:53 PM

I believe, although I haven't done the math, an ICM analysis against a typical calling range for your opponents will tell you this is a +$EV fold UTG*. The question is if you need the 12500 badly enough to forgo the lottery ticket effect of pushing.

*(basic idea: if you win the blinds 80% of the time/double 10%/lose 10%, does the $EV you gain from the extra ~3K/16K outweigh the 10% of the time you lose $12,500? I don't think it's worth $1250 given the flat payout.)

sirtemple · #8 07-13-2005, 12:17 AM

I think it's agreed upon that you either fold UTG, or go to the felt here. The question is, if you folded here could you blind your way into the money? How long after you busted did they bust the bubble? Could you have survived that long folding all your hands? If the buble burst a few orbits later then folding would have been better here.

I know this is somewhat reults oriented, and maybe online tournies have spoiled me, but you can get an idea how long the bubble will last by watching players got knocked out. So based on a guestimate of how long the bubble will last decides this for me. If I feel I have to make a move to survive AQs is a good enough hand for me. If I think it's only a matter of minutes, I'll lay down. Realistically doubling up won't move your real $ expectation much. Sucks tht you were so card dead, but at that stack, that deep in, cashing should be your goal.

betgo · #9 07-13-2005, 12:32 AM

[ QUOTE ]
The question is, if you folded here could you blind your way into the money? How long after you busted did they bust the bubble? Could you have survived that long folding all your hands? If the buble burst a few orbits later then folding would have been better here.

[/ QUOTE ]

There were 575 players and 15 had to be knocked out. I don't think that would take that many orbits. I think from the card player logs it was about 3 orbits.