Tricky River Decision 10/20 6-max

[ISF]

Villan was something like 38/22 or so. He had been stealing alot, and I had been threebeting him quite a bit, and up to this point he had been folding without a showdown so he could have decided to take a stand with a weak holding. Is this a check fold? After the flop call is a 10-8 or small pp more likely then an A,J or Q making it a thin value bet?
For some reason the converter doesnt seem to work with this file.
Villan raises on button I threebet 99.
Flop AA8r. I bet he calls.
Turn Q completing the rainbow. I bet he calls.
River J now what?

[Mig]

I check fold it, you are not ahead of a lot of his possible holdings... Only hands that you beat are lower PP or Kxs.. easy check/fold imo

Unless you have a very good read of him or that he is stealing with any 2. I check fold...

[PokerBob]

give up

[BottlesOf]

Check fold, he has you beat here A LOT.

[Surfbullet]

I'm going to go against the grain here and advocate check-calling.

Some hand reading(feel free to correct anythnig that looks amiss):
1) he raised preflop on the button. His hand range is very wide here, any A, K, most Qs, any pair, any connector, any suited 1 or 2 gapper. He didn't 4bet, so 99+ and AK-AT, KQs become much less likely.

2) he called the flop.
Likely hands: anything with an 8(K8, 78o, 58s), any PP (smaller than 99 b/c he'd cap bigger than TT+) an Ace that is slowplaying, and unpaired hands with 6 outs like QJ, T9, KQ.

3) he called the turn.
Likely hands: anything with an 8, any PP. An ace now becomes much less likely because he'd raise here most of the time. Any hand with a Q will call. TJ has a double gutter and will call. Hands like KJo which have 1 overcard to our nines, and a gutshot, may or may not call, depending on how frustrated he is.

Since he's aggressive, I check-call the river expecting to snap off a bluff from an 8 or PP more than 1 time in 7. I don't like value-betting as much because this is a scary board and he may fold an 8 or PP given all the overs.

Surf


Here's a pokerstove for his likely range of hands, given my deductions:

Board: Ac Ad 8h Qs Js
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 37.3938 % 37.39% 00.00% { 99 }
Hand 2: 62.6062 % 62.61% 00.00% { 66-22, KTs+, K8s, Q8s+, J8s+, T8s, 98s, 86s+, A3o-A2o, KTo+, Q8o+, JTo, J8o, T8o, 98o, 87o }

[aba20]

I agree with surf, check calling is correct. He could easily have an eight.

[ISF]

This was more in line with my thinking except that as he had been giving up pretty easily in the past to my threebets I thought the flop call was much more likely to be an 8 or small pp. And he was agressive enough that I doubt he could have resisted raising the turn with an ace so I actually bet this river thinking it was a value bet. I was fortunatly called by 22, but I wasnt sure about it afterwards and after reading most of the replies maybe this was foolish.

[Grisgra]

[ QUOTE ]
I actually bet this river thinking it was a value bet. I was fortunatly called by 22, but I wasnt sure about it afterwards and after reading most of the replies maybe this was foolish.

[/ QUOTE ]

Or maybe not. The Q and J look scary, but he'd have to call your flop bet with KJ or KQ or somesuch. Putting him on a pocket pair or 8 seems to me to be just as likely as a calldown with one of those hands. I think that check-folding is giving up a bit too easily against this guy (though I don't know that I've have had the balls to value-bet here. NH.)