Fun for everyone (hand reading, outs counting, play-making)

[imported_The Vibesman]

[ QUOTE ]
The (very confident) read says that timid villain is not betting QQ-JJ on the turn, which means I will know exactly where I stand after the 1 SB flop call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good point for not raising the flop. I didn't even think about the fact that the villian would not lead out into two callers on the turn. Short-sighted.

[ellipse_87]

Sorry for the annoying multiple posts...

I was really going very far astray with BB slow-playing AA. However, given what Aaron tells us of BB's ability to read hands and players, it would totally make sense for BB to play 22 or 77 that way and draw bets out of timid SB. So I see that as just as likely as diamonds.

Hero's flop raise, from SB's perspective, represents a possible set, and SB's confidence in the face of that bet makes the possibility of KK loom a little larger. However, BB would still go forward with the slow-play b/c KK represents (from BB's perspective) only 3 of the 24 possible hands for SB (AA 6, AK 12, KQs 3, KK 3).

Same result for Hero--fold.

[ellipse_87]

I'm xxxx5847. Couldn't remember my password one day at work, created new acct.

[sudic]

Ok this is from a real newbie.

A)
I think he may have 77, JJ, KK, AA, AKs AKo.
I'm not sure about 77, but sometimes people will do anything to see the Flop.

B)
I think both your K and T outs are tainted or not helpful.
So I say 1 for the K and 1.5 for the T.

C)
Fold. Pots odds aren't high enough.

[SugarPush]

Here is my 2 cents:

1) What range of hands does SB have?
From your description of the SB I would put him on AA, KK or AK maybe KQ but I doubt it. He has a pretty low preflop raise %. I would have put him on AQ, QQ, JJ before the flop but I don't think he would have 3-bet you with those with a King showing with any of those hands.

2) How many outs do you think I have on average?
If he has AK you have 2. AA you have 5. With KK you are probably drawing dead. Say 3 outs.

3) What is the right play based on this information?
Make a crying call due to pot size or fold. It is pretty close.

Here's some more fun things to consider for the slightly more advanced:
4) What does BB hold?
I bet he is on a flush draw. AQs or maybe A2s but I would tend towards the AQs.

5) How do BB's holdings affect my outs?
This counter fits one of your tens. Lowers you to 1 or 2 outs.

6) What is the right play based on the extra information?
Fold

[Watain]

Great post!!!!

I´ll start out with the newbie section.

1) Range of SB hands:
- He made an reraise, indicating an even stronger hand that a range would have meant. And considering that he weak-player he must be confident: aa-ak-aq-kq (suited/unsuited) -kk-qq-jj-(tt).

Flop >>> According to you information he have something if he does bet. The interesting part is that he 3-bets it, meaning that an unlikely flush draw should´nt be the case (a free card play is not good because of he+s position i think). The three-bet likely also means that he´s is not trying to punish you aggressive play, with a qq or jj.

Turn >>> He doesn´t fear the king nor the jack. Therefore i would think he have: aa-ak-kk. This means that you have:

aa: 5 outs
ak: 3 outs
kk: 0 outs
average: 2,6 (lets just say 3, for the unlikely situation that he have qq or semi-bluffing a, rather unlikely but still...)

It´s a close decision. I would tend to fold this, since you if you did hit you K or T, you don´t know if you are beaten and raising he´s likely river bet could be punished even further... Fold.

[tor]

*posting blind*

1) What range of hands does SB have?
AA, KK, AK, AKs, 77

2) How many outs do you think I have on average?
3.5 from Tens, .25 from a K in case he is betting a K with worse kicker than you, otherwise it prolly only helps him hit a boat or strenthen his hand. You are *easily* dominated.

3) What is the right play based on this information?
Call to see river if it were heads up, but since it's not... I'd fold to the turn three bet because "His play has been very readable"

Here's some more fun things to consider for the slightly more advanced:
4) What does BB hold?
I'm not sure how to translate exactly how loose he is into what cards he has, but I figure given two cold, he is got a king and other big card. Perhaps diamonds to boot. Ax of diamonds.

5) How do BB's holdings affect my outs? Td bad... leaves the three Tens. Also, your pot equity is prolly even less 'cause KT is possible for him as well, and you might be playing for less money.

6) What is the right play based on the extra information?
Call to see river. if not a T fold to any action.

[tor]

[ QUOTE ]
I can't believe I forgot about 22 or 77 for BB. That was dumb.

[/ QUOTE ]

Doh, I didn't remember those either. I got 77 for the SB but forgot the BB...

[tor]

[ QUOTE ]
...but you will probably be beaten by the BB's KQ or w/e or the SB's quad kings.

[/ QUOTE ]

Quad kings for the SB is impossible since you hold one.

[tor]

[ QUOTE ]
3.5 from Tens

[/ QUOTE ]

err, umn 2.5 from tens. doh.